2 Best Bets for NFL Week 7: Can Purdy Get Revenge Against KC?


The NFL season is heating up, as we move along to Week 7! The headlines this week were some top wide receiver talent on the move, as Davante Adams was reunited with Aaron Rodgers and traded to the Jets. Shortly after the Bills bolstered their wide receiver core, trading for Amari Cooper.
We’re expecting both wideouts to suit up on Sunday. Just two teams on bye this week (Cowboys + Bears) so we have a full slate to dive into.
Green Bay Packers at Houston Texans
We’ll kick off the Sunday slate with a great matchup in the 1 pm EST window. We saw both of these offenses “get right” last week as the Packers put up 34 at home against Arizona, while the Texans put up 41 on the Patriots.
I still do have concerns/question marks about the play calling in Houston under Bobby Slowik, but it was at least encouraging to see the Texans offense look healthy despite losing their #1 option in Nico Collins. Last week we laid the points with the Packers hosting Arizona, thinking that the Arizona secondary would be the perfect matchup for the Packers offense to get going.
They did just that as the Packers offense finally looked complete, with their full complement of wide receivers out there and Jordan Love looking healthier after his knee injury. Coming into Week 7, Jayden Reed has remained limited in practice due to an ankle injury, but I do expect him to end up suiting up.
Best Bet: Packers/Texans OVER 47.5 -110
I was confused by the line movement on this game as the initial betting was on the under after the soft opener of 48. This got as low as 46.5 in some spots and is now settled in the 47.5-48 range. While I do have the Texans defense rated in the top five of the NFL, I don’t think the Packers are any better than average.
Both these teams are capable of putting up points and I think we’ll have a shootout on our hands in the early part of the day. Green Bay is number five in offensive DVOA this season, while Houston ranks in at 17th. Despite the middle of the pack ranking, I think Houston can really go up from here.
Getting Nico Collins back for the playoff run is pivotal, but on a week to week basis in the middle of the season, I think Houston can still put up points without him. The Packers defense has been heavily reliant on turnovers to fuel their defensive success, so I’m interested to see how they perform against a team that should be more efficient and take care of the ball more.
Kansas City Chiefs at San Francisco 49ers
Week 7 is filled with top bill matchups, and we get another one right here in the rematch of last year’s Superbowl. Side note: How in the world did neither of these games get flexed into Sunday Night Football where we instead have the Steelers and Jets. Betting media will have plenty to talk about in this one, whether it be the rematch angle, or the Chiefs coming off the bye, or Mahomes as an underdog.
Despite all this, I think this will be a San Francisco spot this weekend. We know San Francisco is one of the best defenses in the league and has the linebacking core to help contain Mahomes and allow their great pass rush to get home. The Chiefs pass catching situation is looking dire with Rashee Rice still injured and Mahomes relying on an aging Travis Kelce and JuJu Smith-Shuster to get the job done.
While I do expect the Chiefs to make some move before the season’s over, whether via trade or free agent signing, they haven’t made it yet and are coming into SF under gunned. San Francisco’s offense is also coming together after a couple rough weeks to start the season.
Purdy looked like himself last week, putting 36 points up against a strong Seahawks defense. Jordan Mason’s status is still in question with an AC joint injury, but he has posted limited practices all week, so I’d lean towards him being in. We also might see the debut of Ricky Pearsall, who recovered from a gunshot wound, and could suit up in place of the injured Jauan Jennings.
Best Bet: 49ers -1.5
Andy Reid is generally very good at using the bye week to scheme up some unique looks for his team, which will make this an entertaining game, but I do think the 49ers should be bigger favorites here. It’s hard to make Mahomes a bigger underdog than this but the offense simply isn’t in a place that makes me want to back them.
The KC defense has been elite but really hasn’t been tested by an elite offense since Week 1 against the Ravens. SF has the talent to be the first- or second-best offense in the league which is why I’m laying the -1.5 here.
BONUS Futures Bet: Patrick Mahomes is the current market leader for MVP despite a less than stellar offensive campaign in 2024. Brock Purdy was leading the MVP race in 2023, until the Christmas Day massacre at the hands of the Ravens pushed eventual winner Lamar Jackson up in the market.
Despite being early in the season, I’d consider this a high leverage spot for Purdy’s MVP campaign. If you’re backing the 49ers here, a Brock Purdy MVP ticket could be an interesting look at around 18/1. Make sure you bet that before kickoff.

Max Gilson
Sports Betting Contributor
Max is a seasoned sports analyst from New York who is known for his work on The Noise podcast. He brings a unique perspective on sports betting to the table, one that focuses on a quantitative approach and finding the best price. He can be found on X @max_thenoise