Super Bowl LVIII: Our Top DFS Strategy for 49ers vs Chiefs
Constructing a DFS lineup can be challenging in the best circumstances, let alone when all the attention and cash is focused on one game. The two giants in the American DFS industry, DraftKings and FanDuel, each have flagship contests for the big game that players will flock to in the hopes of a game-changing payday.
We’ll preview the different ways to approach building lineups for Super Bowl LVIII and prepare you to take advantage of the last NFL game with any stakes for roughly seven months.
DraftKings: NFL Showdown $6M Super Bowl LVIII Millionaire
FanDuel: $2.2M NFL Big Game Bowl $9 $2.2 Million
General Approach: Salary Cap & Roster Size
DraftKings: $50,000 ($8,333 per player) – 6 players: 1 MVP and 5 Flex
FanDuel: $60,000 ($12,000 per player) – 5 players: 1 MVP and 4 Flex
Given the parameters that confine each lineup, building a winner is relatively simple to explain but extremely difficult to achieve. The ideal lineup includes less common and sometimes cheaper players but outperforms those with more popular and expensive counterparts.
DraftKings rules require users to fill one extra roster spot with 17% less cap room, but players are priced differently to accommodate this. DraftKings player prices are elevated when selecting a lineup captain, who receives the 1.5x point multiplier but is more affordable for the five flex positions.
On FanDuel, users have more available cap room with only five players to select, but that money doesn’t extend as far because of higher player salaries. George Kittle, for example, accrues a $6,400 roster hit in the flex position on DraftKings compared to $10,000 on FanDuel.
We suggest taking one of the following approaches to capitalize on either scenario.
Outcome-Based Lineup Prediction
Building lineups based on specific game scripts is an effective way to increase the upper bound of your scoring potential. For example, if the 49ers win in a blowout, consider which players likely benefit from that outcome.
San Francisco’s quarterback and skill players will be obvious choices, but they also carry high cap numbers. Is there a scenario where the Niners win big, and their defense or special teams punch in a score?
Maybe their kicker connects on multiple long kicks to keep the game out of reach? Conversely, how does KC’s game plan change if they’re down multiple scores early and have to fight back for most of the clock?
Users who accurately tie their lineup selections to a particular result are rewarded much more when the game follows expectations.
Perfecting the Lineup Captain/MVP
In flex lineups with a captain/MVP who benefits from a point multiplier, nailing that key player is a requirement. For Super Bowl LVIII, the player with the highest cap number is not a quarterback.
San Francisco’s Christian McCaffrey carries the top salary on both DraftKings and FanDuel. CMac’s $18,000 tag as the lineup captain on DraftKings represents 36% of a user’s available amount, compared to his 29.2% ratio on FanDuel.
He will likely be a popular pick for that top spot, meaning that the fate of those lineups will largely rest on his production. Other players in a similar category include quarterbacks Patrick Mahomes and Brock Purdy and tight end Travis Kelce, the highest-ranked player on the Chiefs after Mahomes.
The key is not to avoid these players because they’ll be common choices but to pick the correct one.
Multiple QB Option
Lineups with multiple quarterbacks prioritize finding value in the margins. Because the cost of two signal-callers is steep, users must include players such as WR2s, kickers, and defense/special teams units to fill out a lineup.
In the scenario we outlined above, where San Fran blows out KC, the two-QB strategy can work well but involves selecting the correct captain/MVP. If Mahomes is attempting 40+ throws, that could both elevate his scoring floor and create more takeaway chances for the Niners’ D.
Slotting in Mahomes as the MVP and including San Fran’s D/ST in a lineup could put that user well into the money. On the flip side, if Mahomes is the captain/MVP in a lineup where he’s outperformed by Purdy, users will be penalized by falling behind those entries with the correct captain/MVP choice.
Key Things to Remember
● Build lineup(s) based on specific predictions for the game’s result
● Consider players who may be less commonly designated as lineup captain/MVP
● When including multiple QBs, choosing the correct captain/MVP is essential due to common players across many entries
Sports Betting Contributor
Nicholas brings over 10 years of sports betting and DFS experience to our team. He’s a player prop specialist who holds a degree from Penn State University. He enjoys a nice round of golf in his downtime and covers the NFL, NBA, baseball, CFB, and CBB. Mr. Berault is currently on a great run with his NFL best bets, so be sure to check those out!