Week 7 gives us an intriguing matchup on Sunday Night Football as the Steelers travel south to take on the Dolphins. Pittsburgh has had a disappointing 2-4 start to the season but they’re coming off a huge upset over Tampa Bay.
Miami is sitting at 3-3 and Dolphins fans are eager to see Tua Tagovailoa back in the starting lineup after being in concussion protocol. Can the Dolphins’ o-line do a better job of protecting him?
Which team will come away with a win? More importantly, which team will cover the point spread? Here are 2 best bets for Sunday Night Football.
Pittsburgh Steelers @ Miami Dolphins
The Steelers picked up a win last week over the Bucs which snapped their 4-game losing streak. This was their 1st win of the season since their Week 1 win at Cincinnati.
The Steelers took an 8-point league on a Chase Claypool touchdown reception with just under 10 minutes remaining in the game. Brady finally got the Bucs into the endzone but failed to get the 2-point conversion to tie the game.
That would be the last time the Bucs got the ball as the Steelers were able to pick up a couple of first downs and run out the clock. The biggest bright spot for these Steelers is the 8 interceptions they have accumulated which is 3rd best in the league.
The Dolphins have had a rough time since Tua’s injury and subsequent absence. After the 3 wins to start the season, they have dropped 3 straight losses.
Their most recent loss was at home to the Vikings 24-16. They still put up 385 yards through the air but committed 3 turnovers and did not force a single one from the Vikings.
Best Bet: Steelers +7
Best Available Odds: -105 at BetMGM
As good as the Miami offense has been at moving the ball, their defense is allowing almost 26 points per game.
Tua should be back in this matchup and questions still surround the Steelers at the QB position.
That said, we believe these Steelers are going to be able to keep things close enough to cover this number. The secondary of the Steelers will be able to keep the Dolphins in check a bit and should be able to add to their interception total.
Key ATS Trends for Pittsburgh at Miami:
- Pitt is 14-5 ATS in their last 19 games in October.
- Underdog is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings.
- Miami is 2-5-1 ATS in their last 8 games following an ATS loss.
- Miami is 0-6-1 ATS in their last 7 games in October.
The total in this game is interesting to look at. On one hand, we have a team like Pittsburgh who is a dead-nuts Under team because of their lack of offensive prowess. On the other hand, we have Miami and its high-flying explosive offense.
Last Sunday night this total opened up at only 42.5 points. However, a ton of Over money has come in and pushed it all the way out to its current number of 45. The move is probably due to Tagovailoa being back in the lineup, which is understandable.
Best Bet: UNDER 45
Best Available Odds: -107 at PointsBet
We’re going to roll with the Under in this spot for a variety of reasons. Tagovailoa being back is an obvious plus for Miami but we think he’ll definitely be dealing with some rust after missing a couple of weeks. It could take the former Alabama star at least a couple of quarters to feel comfortable, which would limit Miami’s scoring.
Kenny Pickett has a bright NFL future but we just don’t see him doing much offensively for Pittsburgh in this game. He’s got a big arm but it’s going to take him a while to learn how to read NFL defenses. The Steelers are only averaging 16.2 points per game, which ranks 30th in the league.
Neither of these offenses converts very well on third down, so there could be lots of stalled drives and punts. Also, the Steelers have a solid red zone defense as they only allow touchdowns on 47.83% of trips inside the 20. This game will top out in the high 30s.
