Super Wild Card weekend kicks off on Saturday afternoon with the Seattle Seahawks facing the San Francisco 49ers for the third time this season and the Los Angeles Chargers hitting the road to play the Jacksonville Jaguars under the lights for a spot in the Divisional round.
San Francisco won both regular season matchups against the Seahawks and are 10-point favorites with a total of 43 for the final edition of their rivalry this season.
Jacksonville is a small underdog at home against LA after the line opened at Chargers -2.5. The Jaguars won by 28 on the road in the September matchup between these two teams. The total is set at 47.5 points for this rematch.
We have three best bets for the early portion of this Wild Card weekend schedule. After hitting 56% of our best bets during the regular season, we look to carry that performance into the postseason.
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Seahawks / 49ers: UNDER 42.5
Best Available Odds: -105 at FanDuel
Both matchups between these two NFC West foes this season ended with 34 total points, with San Francisco winning by 20 at home in September and again by eight in Seattle less than a month ago.
Both teams were top-10 in the NFL in scoring offense this season, but there’s a large disparity between the two in points allowed.
The 49ers were best in the league by allowing 16.3 points per game compared to Seattle’s 25th-ranked mark of 23.6 points per game. San Francisco also topped the league in turnover margin at +13.
Given the familiarity between these two teams and their recent matchup history, we project another game under 40 points and will play the under on Saturday afternoon.
Jaguars +2.5 over Chargers
Best Available Odds: -118 at FanDuel
Only one of these two teams played in a must-win game during Week 18, but both played like they were in that situation which might be to the detriment of the Chargers. The Jaguars had to win against Tennessee to clinch the AFC South, which they did, but the Chargers played all their starters for the better part of their 31-28 loss to Denver.
Wide receiver Mike Williams and defensive end Joey Bosa, both key pieces in LA’s quest for postseason success, were injured, although coach Brandon Staley seems optimistic they’ll play Saturday.
Trevor Lawrence completed 72% of his passes for 262 yards and three touchdowns in the Jags’ blowout of the Chargers on September 25, while Justin Herbert managed 297 yards on 45 attempts with a touchdown and interception apiece.
We don’t expect another blowout this time around but do predict that Jacksonville pressures Justin Herbert well, scores 27+ points, and leans on Riley Patterson (17-18 FGs since Nov. 27) to extend their improbable run at least one more week.
Chargers / Jaguars OVER 47
Best Available Odds: -110 at WynnBet
The Chargers and Jags both finished in the top half of the league in scoring for the 2022 season and have a glaring weakness on defense that leaves them vulnerable in this matchup. Jacksonville is 28th in pass defense this season and will attempt to contain Herbert, the NFL’s second-leading passer, for the second time in a few months.
The Chargers ranked 28th themselves in rush defense this season and face top-10 running back Travis Etienne, who ran for 1,125 yards and 5.1 yards per attempt during the regular season. The added problem for the Chargers is that their 7th-ranked pass defense was exposed by Lawrence and coach Doug Pederson in their September matchup.
It will be a long night if they struggle to contain the Jags’ passing game once again. Take the over on Saturday evening to cap off the first day of Wild Card action.