Just as everyone expected entering this season, Tua Tagovailoa leads the league in passing yards and Saquon Barkley leads the league in rushing. Sure, it’s only Week 3 and there’s bound to be volatility in the stats this early in the season. However, there have been some impressive performances from players who began this season with mixed expectations.
What’s the best way to react to these varied performances early in the year? We lean toward some regression to the mean, in both directions, with this week’s player prop bets.
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Tua Tagovailoa UNDER 261.5 Passing Yards
Best Available Odds: -120 at BetMGM
Buffalo has allowed 298 passing yards through two games against the Rams and Titans and travels to Miami this week to face the Dolphins and Tagovailoa. The third-year quarterback from Alabama torched the Ravens secondary in Week 2 for 469 yards and six touchdowns, and the stage is set for him to prove himself against the vaunted Bills defense.
Miami will need to give their quarterback time to get rid of the ball, and Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle will have to provide the yards after the catch if their quarterback is to eclipse this number. We’ll take the proven secondary of the Bills to bottle up Tua, relatively speaking, after a career day.
Leonard Fournette OVER 16.5 Rush Attempts
Best Available Odds: -110 at BetMGM
The Buccaneers have fed the carries to Fournette to begin this season to the tune of 45 in two games. Only Joe Mixon (46) has more, and Tampa Bay hosts Green Bay this week in a matchup that does not bode well for the Bucs’ passing game.
The Packers have allowed just 317 yards through the air in two games, and Tampa Bay is 24th in attempted passes. The Bucs are also missing top wide receiver Mike Evans due to a suspension from last week’s “incident” with the Saints.
Green Bay is allowing 5.6 yards per rush this season, 6th most in the NFL. Tampa will feed the big guy as a result, likely for another helping of 20+ carries.
Breece Hall OVER 1.5 Receptions
Best Available Odds: -139 at Caesars
Hall took a step back in the pass-catching phase of the offense in Week 2, only getting targeted once compared to nine in the first week. For what it’s worth, he did catch that pass and score a touchdown.
The Bengals allowed Cowboys’ running back Tony Pollard to catch four passes on seven targets for 55 yards, and Hall should be able to have similar success as long as Joe Flacco looks his way. Hall’s target share should level off this week and 1.5 catches is a low bar for a talented rookie.
Joey Slye OVER 1.5 Field Goals
Best Available Odds: +115 at BetMGM
Washington hosts Philadelphia at FedEx Field this Sunday, which typically means it’s an additional home game for the Eagles. Carson Wentz gets another revenge game on the schedule after beating Jacksonville in Week 1, though the Eagles’ defense is a bit tougher than the Jags.
The Commanders have proven they can move the ball down the field and even rack up some big plays. That said, we see at least two of their drives ending without a touchdown and relying on the leg of Joey Slye to put points on the board.