The 2023 CFP Championship Game features the Georgia Bulldogs and the TCU Horned Frogs in a rematch of the 2016 Liberty Bowl that was won by the Dawgs. Both teams have a Heisman -finalist starting at quarterback and took similar journeys to this game aside from TCU dropping the Big 12 title game to Kansas State.
Georgia is a 12.5-point favorite after the line opened at 13, the largest spread in the history of the CFP, and is seeking to become the first team to win consecutive titles in the CFP era.
TCU had not played in a postseason game since 2018 before their Fiesta Bowl victory over Michigan. They are the first Big 12 team to play for the CFP title and would be the second 3-seed to hoist the trophy after Georgia last year.
We look to cash in on some player props for Monday’s title game before saying goodbye to college football until next season. Our best bets in that category are presented next.
Max Duggan OVER 232.5 Passing Yards
Georgia’s defense has allowed 34% of the points scored against them this season in the last two games. They allowed 12.8 points per game in 2022 but gave up 71 combined points in wins over LSU and Ohio State en route to the national championship game.
Against the Tigers in the SEC title game, Georgia allowed the combination of Garrett Nussmeier and Jayden Daniels to throw for 502 yards and three touchdowns on 51 pass attempts.
This is not the same pass defense that Georgia has been known for in the last two seasons. Max Duggan has completed a pass of 40+ yards in 10 of 14 games this season and has five games in 2022 with a 70-yard pass play or longer.
Georgia gave up multiple 50+ yard passes in their win against LSU, and TCU should have similar success if they can even remotely establish a running game in the first half.
Jalen Carter OVER 3 Tackles + Assists
Carter announced in late December that he’s back to full strength after battling an ankle injury for the early part of the season. His recent stretch of performance would back up this claim.
The projected top-5 pick in the 2023 draft had three sacks, two forced fumbles, and 24 of his 30 tackles this season in the Bulldogs’ final six games of the year against the likes of Tennessee, LSU, and Ohio State.
The Horned Frogs have allowed 25 sacks in 14 games this season, and Georgia has four sacks in each of their last two games against top opponents. We predict Carter will shine under the bright lights and get at least 4 tackles in the championship game.
Quentin Johnston UNDER 84.5 Receiving Yards
Johnston was brilliant during the majority of TCU’s run through the Big 12 this season and averaged 18.1 yards per catch in the Horned Frogs’ 14 games. He also found the end zone 6 times.
Since their thrilling one-point victory against Baylor in mid-November, Johnston has exploded with receiving yardages of 139 vs Kansas State and 163 vs Michigan. However, neither of those teams has a secondary as physical as Georgia.
Look for Kirby Smart’s bump-and-run press coverage to throw the timing of Johnston’s routes off tonight in the title game. Johnston will make some nice plays, but our projection has him finishing with around 70 receiving yards. We’ll roll the dice with the Under on this one!
