NFL underdogs lost against the spread for the first time all season in Week 11 with their 6-8 record sealed by a convincing Monday night 49ers’ victory over the injury-riddled Cardinals. Dogs are now 89-71-4 for the season.
Playing the under suffered the same fate last week, also posting a 6-8 record to pull back the season-long mark to 91-72-1 through 11 weeks of 2022.
Week 11 brought our fourth straight winning week, with four plays ending at 3-1 to bump our record for the season up to 21-16. Over the last four weeks, our NFL best bet record is 9-4.
Under bets were good to us once again as all three cashed in low-scoring affairs in Baltimore, Indianapolis, and Houston. The lone blemish on the card was the Broncos’ overtime loss to the Raiders.
Ahead of a packed schedule with no bye weeks in sight, we’re back with the Week 12 edition of NFL Best Bets.
Patriots @ Vikings: UNDER 42.5
Best Available Odds: -109 at BetRivers
The Patriots are an ideal team for under bettors to play on during a short week. They allow 16.9 points per game to opponents, and both of these teams are in the middle third of the league offensively. New England has also held their opponents to less than 20 points in five of their last six games.
As for Minnesota, they’ve been a part of several high-scoring matchups in the last month. Before this past week against the Cowboys, they’d scored 28 points per game over their previous seven. In this case, we’re fading Minnesota and quarterback Kirk Cousins in a primetime, Thursday night game.
Three of the four games they struggled the most on offense kicked off after 1 pm and took place against strong defenses like Philadelphia and Dallas. The Vikings have scored 11 points per game in three late kickoff games in 2022.
Browns +3.5 over Bucs
Best Available Odds: -115 at WynnBet
The Bucs have maintained their strong scoring defense from last season to now, but their offensive drop-off has been significant. Through ten games, the team is 27th in scoring offense after finishing second-best in the NFL in 2021. They’ve scored 20+ points just five times and have only eclipsed 22 points once.
Cleveland boasts the 10th-ranked scoring offense in the NFL and brings their top-5 rushing attack to a matchup with an average Tampa Bay run defense. Despite the Bucs entering this contest coming off a bye week, Cleveland will cover the short number at home.
Texans @ Dolphins: UNDER 47
Best Available Odds: -109 at BetRivers
This total is entirely too low for a Dolphins team that’s scored 35 points per game over their last three contests before a bye in Week 11. Tua’s return to the Miami backfield has been the spark that lit a fire in their offensive output, and they welcome the lowly Houston Texans to town while riding this hot streak.
Speaking of Houston, they’ve lost five in a row. Their best contribution to a potential under play is their inability to score points.
They’ve scored just 14.6 points per game since their Week 6 bye, but have a defense that has been reliable against teams like Miami who rely on the passing game. We’ll fade a lower-than-expected total and ride our hot streak of under plays into Week 12.
