The NFL let college football get its shine during late August and Labor Day weekend and now has reclaimed its rightful place as the league that plays on Sundays in the fall.
We can almost see the RedZone countdown clock ahead of the nine-game 1 p.m. ET window this weekend, followed by five games in the late afternoon before the primetime kickoff between the Giants and Cowboys takes over.
We’re proud of our 43-33 record (56.6%) from the 2022 NFL regular- and postseason and are eager to build off that success in 2023.
For a league that prides itself on its transformation to high-scoring, creative football on offense, the Week 1 point totals don’t reflect that. Just one game has a total above 47 points.
The Miami Dolphins are three-point dogs to the Chargers in LA, where the number has been bet up to 51.5 from the opening number of 48.5.
For the first time this season, we present our best bets for a Sunday of NFL football. Read ahead for our picks and handicaps.
Tennessee Titans @ New Orleans Saints: UNDER 42
The first of three wagers on unders will be placed on the matchup in the Superdome between the Titans and Saints. Beginning with the home team, New Orleans ranked 5th in total defense in 2022 and completed a third consecutive season in which they ranked in the top ten in both scoring and total defense.
The Saints finished fifth in the NFL in sacks, with five players posting five or more, led by eight-time Pro-Bowler Cameron Jordan. They also forced the second-fewest turnovers in the league last season with 14; Only Las Vegas had fewer (13).
The Titans struggled in 2022 but had the #1 in rush defense a year ago, giving up just 3.4 yards per carry and nine scores on the ground. They allowed teams to rack up yards but not always capitalize, and both Tennessee and New Orleans were in the top third of the league in percentage of opponent drives that ended in a score.
On offense, the Saints (22) and Titans (28) saw a dropoff in scoring last season. We wouldn’t be surprised to see that continue in Week 1.
49ers @ Steelers: UNDER 41.5
Unless you lived under a rock last year, which could be justified in this housing market, you’re probably aware that San Francisco is good at playing defense.
The Niners were #1 in scoring defense, 2nd in total defense and takeaways in 2022, and return the vast majority of that talented unit heading into this season.
Pittsburgh also produced impressive numbers, finishing 10th in scoring defense, 9th in rush defense, and led the league in rushing touchdowns allowed (7). Offensively, the Steelers threw 12 touchdown passes in 2022, the fewest in the NFL, and were 26th in rush yards per attempt.
We expect a rock fight in Pittsburgh that the 49ers will win, but not while going over this total.
Eagles @ Patriots: UNDER 45
The Eagles presided over a no-fly zone in 2022, leading the league in pass defense while giving up fewer than 180 yards per game to opponents through the air.
Overall, Philly was tops in the NFL in opponent yards/play allowed and added to their defensive arsenal with more top college talent through the draft in the spring.
The Patriots were true to form on defense despite the franchise’s struggles in a tough division and ended the season ranked ninth in total defense and 11th in scoring defense.
New England tied with the Steelers for the fewest rush TDs allowed and were 7th in against the run, which they will need to continue on Sunday to offset the strength of the Eagles’ offense.
