Stars vs Avalanche Game 3 Prediction, Odds, and Our Best Bet

The Dallas Stars and the Colorado Avalanche are going head to head tonight in Game 3 of their playoff series. The series is tied to 1 game a piece, and this matchup at Ball Arena in Denver promises to be a good one.

The Stars stole Game 1 with a convincing 5-1 win, but the Avs fought back in Game 2, taking a much-needed 4-3 win in overtime.

Both teams are Central Division rivals, and with the intensity of the playoffs, this game is a big opportunity for bettors. 

Game Odds and What They’re Showing

The betting lines for this one are tight. This makes total sense given how close these teams are.

The Avalanche are favorites on the moneyline at -185, while the Stars sit at +154. On the puck line, Colorado is -1.5 at +136, and Dallas is +1.5 at -162. The total is set at a moderate 6.5 goals, with the over at -102 and the under at -118.

These odds tell us the bookmakers expect a competitive game, but Colorado’s home ice and their Game 2 win are giving them a slight edge with some momentum to their back.

Still, the Stars’ ability to keep games close, as seen in their +1.5 puck line odds, tells us they’re not going down easily. The total of 6.5 goals hints at a potentially high-scoring game, but both teams have shown they can tighten up defensively when it matters the most.

Breaking Down the Key Matchups

For the Stars, Matt Duchene has been their leader. He has racked up 82 points with 30 goals and 52 assists on the season. He’s been a consistent threat, especially on the power play unit, where he has 19 points. Jason Robertson is their top goal scorer with 35 goals and 211 shots, showing he’s not afraid to fire at the net and manufacture some chaos in front of the net.

The Stars average 3.35 GF/G, and their power play converts at a solid 22.0%. They also take an average of 29.4 shots per game, so they’re not shy about testing the opposing goaltender and firing away. In fact, they fired 39 shots on the Avs in Game 2, which is a big step up from Game 1 where they only put up 24.

The Avalanche, on the other hand, are led by Nathan MacKinnon, who’s been a force with his 116 points, including 32 goals and 84 assists. MacKinnon also has 320 shots, which goes to show that he’s a constant danger, and his 29 power play points show he thrives in the man advantage. Colorado averages 3.33 GF/G, just a hair below Dallas, but their power play is slightly better at 24.8%. They take 29.9 shots per game, so, for the most part, they match the Stars in offensive pressure.

In between the pipes, the Stars have Jake Oettinger, who’s been steady with 36 wins, a 2.59 GAA, and a .909 SV%. He’s faced a lot of rubber this season, and his ability to make big saves in key moments has kept Dallas in games. The Avalanche counter with Mackenzie Blackwood, who has 28 wins, a 2.55 GAA, and a .912 SV%. Blackwood has been a bit sharper, but Oettinger’s experience in high-pressure situations gives him a slight edge. Other than that, these netminders are nearly identical on paper.

Game 2 stats show how tight this series has been. The Stars had 39 shots to Colorado’s 37, and both teams had 45 hits. The Avalanche won 31 faceoffs to Dallas’ 37, but the Stars converted 1 of their 3 power play chances, while Colorado went 1 for 4.

Between the players, Game 1 and Game 2, these teams are about as evenly matched as it gets. We will not be surprised if this game goes the distance, but for Game 3, one of them will win out.

Prediction and Our Top Pick

This game is going to be a battle, but we’re leaning toward the Dallas Stars to pull off the upset. 

The Stars have shown they can handle Colorado’s high-powered offense, as demonstrated in their 5-1 blowout win in Game 1. Matt Duchene and Jason Robertson are definitely clicking, and their power play has been fairly effective, converting at 22.0%. If they get a couple of chances, they can make the Avalanche pay.

Dallas also has the edge in net with Jake Oettinger, whose .909 SV% and 36 wins give him the confidence he needs to steal a game on the road. The Stars’ PK at 82.0% is another reason to like them — they can neutralize Colorado’s dangerous power play, which has been a big part of their attack with Nathan MacKinnon leading the way.

Sure, Colorado will come out strong at home and MacKinnon is a game-changer with 116 points, and their 24.8% power play is always a threat, but the Avalanche have shown some cracks defensively, giving up 2.82 GA/G, and their penalty kill at 79.8% isn’t anything to brag about. The Stars’ physical play, with 45 hits in Game 2, can wear Colorado down for over 60 minutes.

• HelloRookie’s Prediction: Stars 4, Avalanche 3
• Best Bet: Stars on the ML at +154

The total at 6.5 goals is tempting, but both teams have the goaltending to keep this game tight. With things heating up between these 2, we could see the over, but it’s a little riskier than we’d like. The Stars’ ability to block shots and their discipline with only 6 penalty minutes last game make them a smart pick to keep this game within reach. We’re not touching the puck line, either as Colorado’s home ice makes that too risky — but the moneyline at +154 offers nice value for an upset.

The Stars have the pieces to get it done, and their balanced attack, led by Duchene and Robertson, should be enough to take down a Colorado team that’s still dangerous but not unbeatable.

If you’re looking for a solid prop to pair up with tonight’s game, you might want to take a look at Wyatt Johnston for an assist. He’s notched at least 1 helper in the Star’s last 5 games against the Avs and we don’t see him slowing down. At +190, this prop bet could be a solid money-maker on its own.