Ole Miss vs Oklahoma Prediction, Odds, and Our Best Bet for Saturday’s SEC Showdown
#8 Ole Miss is heading to Norman to take on #13 Oklahoma in a clash of some serious elite units — Lane Kiffin’s high-powered offense squares off with Brent Venables’ suffocating defense. It’s a game that is loaded with playoff stakes and contrasting styles, and it could very well come down to one or two key possessions.
Sure, there are a few good games this weekend, but this is easily the biggest SEC showdown of the week.
Game Details and Odds
The bookmakers have the Sooners currently listed as 5.5-point favorites, with the total set at 54.5. The moneyline has Oklahoma at -230 and Ole Miss at +190, suggesting to us that the bookmakers view the Rebels as a live underdog but not quite on even footing.
| Team | Spread | Total | Moneyline |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ole Miss | +5.5 −108 |
O 54.5 −108 |
+190 |
| Oklahoma | −5.5 −112 |
U 54.5 −112 |
−230 |
It’s really a fascinating matchup as Oklahoma boasts one of the best defenses in the country, while Ole Miss enters with one of the most explosive offenses in the SEC. Whoever dictates the style and pace of this game will likely walk out with a crucial win.
Breaking Down the Matchup: Offense vs. Defense
Lane Kiffin’s Rebels come into this game averaging an insane 491.9 total YPG and 37.4 points, ranking 11th and 14th nationally, respectively. Those numbers include games against some dominant teams such as LSU and Georgia. Senior QB Trinidad Chambliss, who took over after Austin Simmons went down, has been as sharp and efficient as Ole Miss fans could’ve hoped for. He’s passing for 1,549 yards, 8 TDs, and just a single pick in 7 games. He’s also added over 320 yards on his feet, showing off dual-threat capabilities.
Part of his success is attributed to the fact that he has weapons at every level. Kewan Lacy is the heartbeat of the run game, piling up 618 rushing yards and 10 TDs, averaging 88+ YPG. He’ll be tested, but he’s been the most consistent piece of the offense.
Through the air, Chambliss has leaned heavily on a trio of standout pass catchers, which includes Harold Wallace III for 400 yards, Dae’Quan Wright with 393 yards and 3 TDs, and Deion Alexander with 382 yards and 1 TD. Wright, in particular, has been absolutely explosive, leading SEC tight ends in yards per catch with 20.7. The Rebels average 300+ passing yards per game, and Kiffin’s offense is good at attacking mismatches — especially with Wright over the middle.
The issue here is that they haven’t faced a defense like Oklahoma’s.
Brent Venables’ Sooners are allowing just 9.4 PPG, 2nd-best in the country. They lead the nation in total defense with 213 yards allowed per game and passing defense at 132.6 yards per game. Simply put, they don’t give up big plays, and they don’t beat themselves. That’s simple and clean football that goes a long way against solid teams.
Edge rushers R Mason Thomas, who has 5.5 sacks, and Taylor Wein, with his 3.5 sacks, headline a defensive front that gets home consistently — averaging 4.0 sacks per game, which leads the country. They’ve handled mobile quarterbacks well this year, racking up 6 sacks against South Carolina’s LaNorris Sellers and 9 against Auburn’s Jackson Arnold. If Chambliss holds the ball too long or is forced to create out of structure, Oklahoma will make him pay dearly. This effectively neutralizes the dual-threat advantage he brings to the table.
Where Oklahoma Could Struggle
Offensively, the Sooners have been less dominant, but still serviceable. They’re putting up just 28.7 PPG and 379.3 total yards, both ranking well outside the top 50 in the nation. QB John Mateer has thrown for 1,567 yards, with 7 touchdowns and 6 picks on the season. Sure, he’s a capable runner, with 5 rushing TDs, but he hasn’t been asked to carry the offense often.
Freshman RB Tory Blaylock has surprisingly emerged as the lead back, running for 391 yards on 87 carries with 4.5 YPC. He’s coming off a monstrous 100-yard effort against South Carolina, but overall, the Sooners’ run game has been average as they’re putting up just 129.6 rushing yards per game.
In the passing game, Isaiah Sategna III has been Mateer’s best target. He’s pulling in 37 receptions for 493 yards and 4 TDs. But outside of him, there hasn’t been a ton of production. The Sooners haven’t scored more than 26 points against any Power Five opponent outside of Kent State.
They’re efficient, but definitely not what we’d call explosive.
What Will Decide the Game?
This matchup really boils down to one critical question — Can Ole Miss move the ball against the best defense it’s seen all year? The Rebels’ offensive line has only allowed 5 sacks this season, which puts them in the top 15 in the country — but that will be tested against Oklahoma’s blitz-heavy, pressure-creating front.
On the other side of the field, if Oklahoma’s offense stalls early or turns the ball over, it could give Ole Miss a chance to control the tempo and force the Sooners into catch-up mode — something they aren’t built to do.
There’s also a sneaky mismatch on special teams and discipline. Ole Miss ranks 5th in penalty yards, and that could get them in trouble against a defense that thrives on short fields. But if they stay clean and disciplined, and Chambliss protects the football, the Rebels have a real shot to win this SEC showdown outright.
Prediction and Best Bet
Oklahoma undeniably has the defense to win this game, but they don’t have the offense to separate. Ole Miss, on the other hand, has shown it can beat strong teams by getting into shootouts or grinding it out for a full 4 quarters. Kiffin’s group has more playmakers, more big-play potential, and simply better offensive balance.
We’re betting on Ole Miss winning a tough, low-scoring game on the road and putting themselves right in the thick of the SEC title race.
- Prediction: Ole Miss 27, Oklahoma 20
- Best Bet: Ole Miss +5.5
Despite what the bookmakers are saying, the Rebels are the more complete team. Oklahoma’s defense is without a doubt legit, but its offense lacks the explosiveness to pull away. This game should stay close throughout, and there’s solid value in Ole Miss both against the spread and on the moneyline. With 5.5 points for the Rebels, this gives you solid value even if the Sooners come back with a late-game FG.
Matt Brown
Head of Sports Betting and DFS
Matt’s love for sports betting and daily fantasy sports, coupled with a deep understanding of football, hockey, and baseball, shapes his innovative thoughts on Hello Rookie. He has a B.S. in Aeronautical Computer Science and a M.S. in Project Management.
