NBA Monday: 2 Player Prop Picks for February 26: Will Nembhard Slice Through Toronto’s Defense?

Let’s get back to winning some cash in the Association! We’ve got 2 NBA player prop picks on the docket for Monday, February 26. Good luck!

Here we have two NBA plays on this short four-game slate as the NBA transitions back to its normal schedule post-All-Star break.

Toronto Raptors at Indiana Pacers

The NBA schedule makers have shown kindness to the Indiana Pacers following Indianapolis’ hosting of all-star weekend in 2024. The Pacers are in game three of a four-game homestead following the all-star break and look to build on the small winning streak they’ve built.

I’m looking at Andrew Nembhard in this one, at a Points+Rebounds+Assists number that looks too low. Nembhard has seen his minutes increase month by month as he’s cemented himself as the starting guard alongside Tyrese Haliburton.

Andrew Nembhard Over 17.5 Points/Rebounds/Assists (FanDuel)

FanDuel has Nembhard’s PRA line at OVER 17.5 (-104), while the other markets that are up have juiced up the over side to -125/-130. Nembhard doesn’t have an aggressive scoring mentality, however, is extremely efficient in his shot selection and can provide some three-point shooting as well.

Nembhard has cleared 17.5 in his last four games and I think the line is not properly adjusted to him playing upwards of 30 minutes per night versus the 25 or so he averaged last month.

He isn’t the main ball handler in any of the lineups he’s in but the pass-heavy nature of the Pacers offense plus their quick pace should allow Nembhard to clear this number tonight.

Miami Heat at Sacramento Kings

The Heat play their first game since the brawl in New Orleans and will be without Jimmy Butler, Nikola Jovic, and Thomas O’Bryant in this one. Playing without Butler obviously hurts this Heat team, but they should still be competitive in this game playing through Tyler Herro and Bam Adebayo.

PG Terry Rozier was also upgraded to Questionable for tonight’s game. Miami might be more inclined to bring him back from his knee injury given that they will be down 3 players tonight. 

I’m looking at De’Aron Fox in this one, who’s been on an absolute tear of late, leading the Kings on a three-game win streak. His Points+Rebounds+Assist number is sitting at 34.5, which I find far too low seeing as though he’s flirted with a triple-double in his last four games while averaging just under 33 points per game.

De’Aaron Fox Over 34.5 Points/Rebounds/Assists (BetRivers)

Fox has been the Kings’ featured play all season, but in the month of February, we’ve seen his shot attempts and usage increase from a “cooler” January stretch. Fox’s numbers and usage look a lot more like his figures from late 2023 when we were accustomed to seeing his PRA number in the 39-41 range on a nightly basis.

I think today’s line discredits the Heat too much without Jimmy Butler, as I think the game will remain competitive and Fox should still play his normal minutes. The Heat do play at a slower pace than some of the King’s more recent opponents which is accounted for in the line.

However, without Butler, the Heat should play faster and the team defense will hurt given that they lack a premium on-ball defender. A Tyler Herro/Terry Rozier tandem cannot stick with Fox and I expect another big scoring day from him. We’ll play OVER 34.5 PRA at (-110)