Eastern Conference Final Preview: Carolina Hurricanes vs. Florida Panthers

We’ve reached the big final 4 teams in the Stanley Cup Playoffs, and the Eastern Conference Final is bringing together 2 teams who know this stage well. The Carolina Hurricanes and Florida Panthers are no strangers to deep postseason runs, and they both enter this round looking every bit like they’re ready for the Stanley Cup.

Carolina has undoubtedly been the most efficient team in the playoffs so far, taking care of the Devils, the dominant Capitals, and now lining up against a Florida team that knocked off the Lightning, Maple Leafs, and survived a 6-game scrap with Ottawa. They’re hungry to hoist the Cup yet again.

However, this year’s Eastern Conference Final feels different than years past. It’s a collision between structure and chaos, lockdown goaltending, and sneaky offensive depth.

The question everyone has for this series is — who blinks first? Only one team can advance to the Stanley Cup Finals.

Scoring Depth — Panthers Bring Variety, Canes Lean on Top Guns

Looking at Florida’s postseason offense, it’s not one guy doing all the damage like some of the other teams in the playoffs.

Brad Marchand, of course, has been the point leader with 12 in 12 games, including 9 assists and a staggering +11 rating. Sam Reinhart, who led the team in regular season points, has 11 in the playoffs, so he’s still doing his part. Eetu Luostarinen and Anton Lundell have 10 points apiece, showing just how well-balanced this attack is and why every team should be afraid of the Panthers. Add in a few names like Aleksander Barkov, Sam Bennett, and Matthew Tkachuk, and Florida’s depth becomes clearer than ever. Everyone pulls their weight on this roster.

The Panthers are scoring 3.75 GF/G this postseason, good for 4th among all playoff teams and the highest of the 4 still standing in the bracket. They’ve done it with a shooting percentage of 13.0% which is only 2nd to the Blues. That tells you they’re capitalizing on their chances and dominating their opponents in the zone.

On the other side of the ice, Carolina is getting high-end production from its stars but lacks the same depth. Seth Jarvis leads the team with 10 points, Sebastian Aho and Andrei Svechnikov both have 10 and 9, respectively, but then there’s a steep drop-off after that, with Shayne Gostisbehere and Taylor Hall the only other players with 5+ points.

Still, Carolina has scored 3.40 GF/G which is nothing to ignore and they’ve done it with lower shot quality, posting a modest 10.3% shooting rate. That means they’re working harder for goals but still finding ways to produce. In the end, if a team can find the back of the net any way they can, they’ll win.

• Edge: Florida, for balance and efficiency

Goaltending — Frederik Andersen Is the Wall Florida Has to Beat

If there’s one clear-cut strength for Carolina, it’s between the pipes and it’s not even close.

Frederik Andersen has been nothing less than lights out, despite not having the name recognition some of the other netminders have. Through his 9 games, he’s 7-2 with a microscopic 1.36 GAA and a sparkling .937 SV%. No other goalie left in the playoffs is even close and those are some of the best numbers we’ve seen from playoff goalies. Andersen’s play has completely changed the complexion of Carolina’s postseason, especially against teams like Washington that live off momentum swings. Even when the defense doesn’t help him, he stands his ground.

Backing him up, Pyotr Kochetkov has filled in briefly and been steady, but make no mistake with this one — this is Andersen’s net, and he’s thriving. We expect him to take every game of this series. The Hurricanes are giving up just 1.80 GA/A, by far the best in the playoffs. They’ve only allowed 18 goals on 240 shots, showing just how stifling they’ve been defensively. If they’re able to shut down the best team from the regular season (Washington Capitals), they should have no problem stopping the Panthers.

Florida’s Sergei Bobrovsky has been fine as well, but not exactly dominant. He’s 8-4 with a 2.31 GAA and .901 SV%. The Panthers have given up 2.42 GA/A, which is solid but closer to the league average than elite like the Canes. Sure, Bobrovsky can steal a game or two, but he’s also had moments of inconsistency. On top of that, his .901 SV% tells you he’s not bailing the team out regularly.

If goaltending wins in the playoffs — and it does more often than not — Carolina has a major leg up that will be hard to beat.

• Edge: Carolina and it’s not close

Special Teams — The Canes Own the Kill

Carolina’s special teams are clicking and as we all know, special teams can make or break a playoff team.

The Hurricanes have the top PK left in the playoffs at 93.3%, an absurdly high number, and especially so in the postseason. They’re shutting down power plays with almost surgical precision. This undoubtedly gives them a built-in edge in any tightly officiated game. Their own power play unit is fairly solid as well with a 28.1%. This unit is led by Sebastian Aho and Andrei Svechnikov, both of whom are producing on the man advantage.

Florida’s numbers aren’t bad, but they don’t jump off the page like Carolina’s. Their power play is running at 20.5%, and their PK is at 89.5%, only second to the Canes. Those are above-average marks and suggest discipline and execution, but when you stack them next to Carolina’s stats, they don’t quite measure up and they’re a little off-balanced.

The Hurricanes are also staying out of the box a lot more. They’ve taken 82 penalty minutes through 10 games, the lowest of the remaining 4, while Florida has racked up 172 PIM in 12 games, which is the highest of the remaining 4 teams. That’s a lot of shorthanded time to give a power play like Carolina’s.

• Edge: Carolina, thanks to elite penalty killing and fewer penalties taken

Matchups and X-Factors

The Panthers will try to wear Carolina down with pressure and physicality as that’s their bread and butter. They have a bigger, more aggressive top 6, and they’ll test Carolina’s defense with an aggressive forecheck. But Carolina has held up against faster teams already, and their blue line — led by Jaccob Slavin and Brent Burns — has held firm under pressure. They can bend at times, but rarely do they break.

An underrated storyline we find interesting in this one is Brad Marchand’s resurgence. With 12 points and a +11 rating, he’s proving to be a playoff problem again. He’s playing smart and effective hockey when it matters the most. If Florida wins this series, it may be because Marchand and Reinhart continue to deliver clutch performances, but keep in mind, it hasn’t always been this way. It’s been an up-and-down season for both of them.

For Carolina, the difference maker is goaltending and pace control. They move the puck with purpose and win races to loose pucks. Seth Jarvis and Aho are both creating regularly, and Svechnikov has been the finisher they’ve needed.

If Carolina gets the same level of goaltending they’ve had so far and keeps their structure intact, they can limit Florida’s high-percentage and high–danger chances. If Florida can draw penalties (good luck with that) and open up the game with their transition play, it’ll test the Canes in a way they haven’t seen yet.

• Edge: Toss-up, but Carolina’s consistency holds more weight.

Prediction — The Canes Are Built for This Moment

Florida, the reigning champion, is dangerous, no question. They score more. They spread the wealth across their top 9. They’ve beaten some solid teams and aren’t going to fade away easily, especially with their depth. But the Hurricanes are built to win ugly. They don’t panic, and they have the best goaltender left in the playoffs and a penalty-kill unit that erases any mistake. That kind of edge shows up in the details — late in close games, in overtime, and in must-kill moments. It’s not always pretty, but it’s an effective way to win.

This is a great matchup on paper. But when it’s time to close out a tight series, Carolina’s structure, calm goaltending, and special teams could be the final difference and we’re not so sure that Florida will have an answer for all of that.

We’re pretty sure the Panthers will put up a fight until the end, maybe take a game or 2, but we’re predicting Carolina Hurricanes in 6.