AGA CEO Calls the CFTC Boss “Quite Frankly, a Joke” — And Predicts the Casino Industry Wins

The head of the casino industry’s top trade group used unusually blunt language Tuesday night in Las Vegas, calling the federal regulator at the center of the prediction markets fight “quite frankly, a joke” — and declaring that states and the traditional gaming industry will ultimately come out on top.

American Gaming Association CEO Bill Miller and Nevada Gaming Control Board Chair Mike Dreitzer appeared before business leaders and gaming executives at the Economic Club of Las Vegas on May 5, 2026, at Park MGM. The event, billed as “The Insider’s View on Las Vegas and Gaming in 2026,” turned into a full-throated defense of state-regulated sports betting and a sharp rebuke of the federal Commodity Futures Trading Commission.

The Quote That Will Get Play

Miller’s sharpest words were directed at CFTC Chair Michael Selig, who has become one of the most polarizing figures in the betting industry. Selig reversed course after his Senate confirmation hearings — where he promised to let courts and Congress settle the jurisdictional fight over prediction markets — and instead became an active advocate for the industry, filing amicus briefs in states’ lawsuits and directing the agency to draft new rules that would validate prediction market sports contracts.

“The head of the CFTC, quite frankly, is a joke,” Miller said, according to reporting on the event. “He believes somehow that what he’s doing is Uber and the rest of the country is the taxicab industry. That’s not the case. He’s not facilitating something that’s a public good. A federal regulator charged with regulating derivatives around agricultural contracts should not be engaged in it.”

Miller has been consistent in this criticism for months. On gambling analyst Steve Ruddock’s Straight to the Point podcast in February, he called the current setup at the CFTC “absolutely ludicrous,” pointing out that the agency allows regulated entities to self-certify the markets they want to offer — a system he argued no other government agency at any level uses. He has also called prediction market platforms “unregulated sportsbooks” operating through what the AGA views as a legal loophole, not a genuine commodity derivatives framework.

What Prediction Markets Are — And Why It Matters to You

If you’re a sports bettor using a licensed sportsbook, you’ve probably heard about prediction markets by now. Platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket offer what they call “event contracts” — essentially yes/no bets on sports outcomes. The key difference is that they operate under federal CFTC oversight, not the state-by-state licensing framework that governs every legal sportsbook you can find in our state-by-state betting guide.

That means prediction markets are accessible in every state — including states that have never legalized sports betting. It also means they operate outside the state taxes and consumer protections that come attached to a licensed sportsbook. The AGA has estimated that states have already lost approximately $480 million in tax revenue since sports-related event contracts began proliferating. Sports contracts account for roughly 90 percent of prediction market volume, Miller has noted repeatedly, yet the CFTC was created to oversee commodity derivatives like corn futures — not the outcome of a Tuesday night baseball game.

What Miller Expects in Court

Miller’s assessment of the legal landscape was notably confident at Tuesday’s event. The AGA and its allies — including state attorneys general, tribal gaming interests, and bipartisan legislators — are fighting prediction market operators across dozens of active lawsuits around the country.

“These guys thought they were going to blitzkrieg their way through the world,” Miller said. “But we’ve started to see real movement in the last month or two. We are a year and change into this fight. We’re making their life very difficult in court. My view is there are multiple ends to this, but almost all of the ends end with us winning.”

Dreitzer, whose Board has already obtained state court orders blocking prediction markets from operating in Nevada, echoed that confidence while acknowledging the timeline remains uncertain. The expectation among both men is that a split in federal court rulings will eventually push the matter to the Supreme Court.

“From our perspective, every day that goes by is a day where people violate the laws of states,” Dreitzer said. “Any time you risk your money for the uncertain outcome of sporting events, that’s gambling. We’re going to win this. I don’t know when, but it will be a good day.”

The Real-World Impact on Sports Bettors

The fight isn’t just abstract regulatory politics. Miller told the audience that Tennessee — where there are no physical casinos and mobile sports wagering was launched to fund school choice — has seen a “precipitous drop” in sports betting activity since prediction markets arrived. Nationally, the AGA has begun to detect softness in the sports betting segment it attributes to the same cause.

Dreitzer also flagged a threat that extends well beyond sports wagering. He argued that prediction market algorithms could eventually be packaged into unregulated, distributed casino-style gaming products operating nationwide without state licensing, without consumer protections, and without the tax revenue states depend on.

“Make no mistake, that’s what it’s all about,” Dreitzer said. “They will take these prediction algorithms, put it in a cabinet, and have distributed gaming casinos that are unregulated and untaxed sitting right next to Bellagio on Las Vegas Boulevard. They will be sitting in Dallas, Los Angeles, and Hawaii. That’s where this goes.”

If you use licensed sportsbook reviews to find your betting options, the outcome of this battle will determine whether those options — and the consumer protections that come with them — remain intact. The casino industry and states are betting they prevail. According to Bill Miller on Tuesday night, that is not a parlay he is worried about losing.