Vanderbilt vs Tennessee Prediction – SEC Showdown Sets Up for High-Octane Finish
It’s a ranked SEC rivalry with some serious postseason implications as #12 Vanderbilt, sitting at 9-2, travels to Knoxville today to face #20 Tennessee, who is sitting at 8-3. Both teams are undoubtedly bowl-bound, but with bragging rights, the potential for a shot at the CFP, and momentum on the line, this matchup goes far beyond records.
Despite Vanderbilt sitting higher in the polls and SEC standings, the bookmakers are surprisingly siding with the home team. Tennessee is a 2.5-point favorite, and it’s not just because of Neyland Stadium, though we know that is a big factor. When you look at how the Volunteers’ offense matches up with Vanderbilt’s weaknesses, there’s a clear path to victory for the Vols.
Game Details and Odds
This game kicks off at Neyland Stadium in Knoxville at 3:30 p.m. ET and will be televised on ESPN, so there’s no reason for you to miss out on it. Tennessee, at 8-3 overall and 4-3 in the SEC, sits just 2 games behind Vanderbilt in the standings, but comes in with the betting edge.
The line opened at -3.5 in favor of the Vols and has since tightened to -2.5, which tells us that sharp money has come in on the Commodores. On the moneyline, Tennessee is listed at -145, while Vanderbilt comes in as a +125 underdog. The total is set at 66.5, suggesting bookmakers are expecting some massive fireworks.
| Team | Spread | Total | Moneyline |
|---|---|---|---|
| Vanderbilt Commodores | +2.5 +105 |
O 66.5 −115 |
+125 |
| Tennessee Volunteers | −2.5 −125 |
U 66.5 −105 |
−145 |
With two offenses that combine for 81+ PPG, there’s plenty of reason to expect just that.
Why Tennessee’s Offense Could Be the Difference
The Volunteers have much more than just a good offense — they have one of the best in college football. They rank 4th in the FBS in both total offense and passing yards, averaging 491+ yards and 307.9 passing YPG. They also sit 4th in scoring at 42.3 PPG, powered by an efficient and explosive passing attack.
Senior QB Joey Aguilar has been nothing shy of excellent, throwing for 3,145 yards and 23 TDs, though he has tossed 10 picks, so he can be a little risky at times. He’s completing 67% of his passes and gets help from an elite receiving group led by Chris Brazzell II, who’s up to 926 yards and 8 TDs on just 56 catches — a ridiculous 16.5 yards per grab.
RB DeSean Bishop adds a little balance to the attack, with 886 yards and 12 rushing touchdowns, helping the Vols stay dangerous even when LBs try to drop back and play the pass.
Where this game could break open is in the mismatch between Tennessee’s passing game and Vanderbilt’s secondary. The Commodores are giving up 248.4 passing yards per game, which places them 113th in the FBS, and have surrendered 19 passing TDs, the most in the SEC. They’ve also allowed a 68% completion rate, which ranks dead last in the conference. That’s a dangerous combo against a quarterback such as Aguilar. You can bet he’ll do everything he can to exploit that.
Even though Vanderbilt limits big plays in general, as they allow only 10.5 yards per reception, which is good for 2nd in the SEC, they’ve been exposed on 3rd and long, giving up a 20+ yard pass on nearly 1 in 5 attempts in those situations. That’s the worst in the conference. Tennessee thrives on those big chunk plays, with its wide receivers averaging 15 yards per reception, and Aguilar always hunting for the deep shot.
Vanderbilt’s defense is stronger against the run, where they’re holding opponents to 105 YPG on the ground. However, that won’t matter much if they can’t get stops in the air.
Can Vanderbilt Keep Pace?
Offensively, Vanderbilt isn’t far behind. They’re scoring 38.9 PPG, rank 19th in total offense, and move the ball efficiently. Senior QB Diego Pavia is a dual-threat leader who’s thrown for 2,924 yards and 26 TDs while also rushing for 661 yards and 8 more scores. That makes him the leader for Vandy on the ground as well. He’s completing nearly 72% of his passes and just threw for 484 yards and 5 TDs in a 45-17 blowout win over Kentucky.
The Commodores have a solid running game, and their ability to hold onto the ball — they average 31:18 in time of possession — allows them to keep opposing offenses on the sideline. That could be a major factor in trying to slow down Tennessee’s tempo.
Vanderbilt’s top playmaker in the passing game has been Eli Stowers, who leads the team with 705 yards and 4 touchdowns. But against Tennessee’s vulnerable secondary, they’ll need more big plays from others like Tre Richardson, who broke out with 159 yards and 3 touchdowns against Kentucky last week.
Tennessee’s defense gives up 378.5 YPG and has been somewhat shaky against the pass, allowing 247.5 YPG. But they’ve forced more turnovers than Vandy, including 8 picks, and have shown the ability to stiffen in big moments. That’s where this game could turn around fast.
The Volunteers aren’t perfect defensively, but Vanderbilt hasn’t seen many teams with this kind of offensive balance and home-field edge. If the Vols can generate even just a turnover or two, that might be all they need.
Prediction — Tennessee’s Matchup Edge Too Much for Vanderbilt
This is going to be a fast-paced, high-scoring game — as if you couldn’t tell by the 66.5 point total. Both teams can move the ball, both QBs are having great seasons, and both squads have top-10 offenses. But the deciding factor is going to be Vanderbilt’s inability to slow down the pass, which we just don’t see happening today.
Tennessee has the best passing offense Vanderbilt has faced all year, and the Commodores’ recent wins have come against teams that rank far below the Vols in offensive efficiency. Pavia can undoubtedly keep things close, and the Commodores will move the ball, but their defense has too many holes to survive 4 full quarters in Knoxville.
We’re looking for Aguilar and Brazzell II to connect early and often, and Tennessee’s defense won’t shut Vanderbilt down, but it will get the 1-2 key stops that decide the game.
- Prediction: Tennessee 41, Vanderbilt 31
- Best Bet: Tennessee -2.5
Tennessee is simply the sharper side here. They’re at home, they have the better quarterback-receiver combo, and they’re facing a defense that’s been giving up tons of yards and touchdowns through the air all season. Lay the 2.5 and don’t look back. If you want a little something more to add to this bet, a secondary option would be taking the over 66.5, since both teams are more than capable of putting up 30+ points with ease. But if you’re only playing one angle, Tennessee to cover the spread is the cleanest and most reliable pick for the money.
Matt Brown
Head of Sports Betting and DFS
Matt’s love for sports betting and daily fantasy sports, coupled with a deep understanding of football, hockey, and baseball, shapes his innovative thoughts on Hello Rookie. He has a B.S. in Aeronautical Computer Science and a M.S. in Project Management.
