Texas vs Ohio State Prediction, Betting Odds, and Our Best Bet for Week 1 Clash

Two college football giants are colliding in a Week 1 showdown that feels more like a playoff semifinal than a season opener. It’s honestly the best way to kick off the season after months without football. The No. 1 Texas Longhorns head to Columbus to take on the No. 3 Ohio State Buckeyes in one of the most anticipated games of the year — and this is just the start.

This is just the second time in AP Poll history that two top-3 teams will face off to open the season. And the stakes are bringing National title implications from the opening whistle. It doesn’t get better than this. 

So who should you put your money on?

Game Details and Betting Odds

Kickoff is set for this afternoon at 12:00 p.m. ET at Ohio Stadium — better known as The Horseshoe — where Ohio State has built one of the best home-field advantages in the country. Under HC Ryan Day, the Buckeyes are 37-3 at home, second only to Alabama over that same stretch.

According to the latest numbers from the bookmakers, Ohio State is a 1.5-point favorite, with the over/under set at 47.5 total points. On the moneyline, the Buckeyes are priced at -125, while Texas is just behind at nearly even odds at +104. It’s as close as oddsmakers could make it, which reflects just how evenly matched these two squads are — at least on paper.

But we all know that this isn’t just about numbers. This is a heavyweight bout with revenge, pressure, and plenty of unknowns. No matter how this game shakes out, you know these teams will throw down.

Analysis — What to Know Before You Bet

Texas will finally start Arch Manning, the latest in a legendary football lineage. He’s the Heisman betting favorite, which says a lot about how high expectations are for this sophomore QB. But here’s the catch — he has never started a road game in college. In fact, none of his 95 career pass attempts have come away from home. That’s good for Texas fans as they’ve been able to experience it, but his 2 starts came against teams that went a combined 7-17 last year. And now he gets to face the nation’s top scoring defense and National Champion from 2024, in one of the most hostile environments in the sport.

That’s not ideal for any QB.

Ohio State, on the other hand, will roll with Julian Sayin, who takes over after the program sent 14 players to the NFL this last year — including 4 first-rounders. Sayin has just 12 pass attempts in college, and this will be his first start. But unlike Manning, he doesn’t have to win the game on his own because he’ll be supported by a defense that allowed fewer points than anyone last year and helped lead OSU to a national championship.

The Buckeyes also have Jeremiah Smith, arguably the top WR in the country. Smith averaged 126 receiving yards in Ohio State’s 3 playoff games last year — except when they faced Texas. The Longhorns held him to just a single catch for 3 yards in that matchup, thanks to a secondary that led FBS with 22 interceptions and allowed the fewest yards per attempt.

If Texas wins this game, it’ll be because that defense shows up. They were dominant in 2024 and return with key pieces. They also have a chip on their shoulder after losing to Ohio State 28-14 in the CFP semifinals last year.

However, as much as I want the Longhorns to win it (I’m from Texas, after all), the trends still favor the Buckeyes.

Ryan Day always has his team ready for big games. Ohio State is 6-0 straight-up and against the spread in its last 6 games against ranked opponents, including 5 straight wins by double digits against top-10 teams. And Texas may be No. 1 now, but history doesn’t always back the top dog — especially in first week games like this, on the road, against a program built to reload every year. The odds undoubtedly accounted for this.

Yes, Texas has won 11 straight road games, the longest active streak in the FBS. But none of those came in an environment like The Shoe — and none of them were against a team like this version of Ohio State. It’s a tall order, no matter how you cut it.

The biggest mismatch will most likely be penalties and discipline.

Ohio State rarely beats itself. Texas, on the other hand, ranked near the bottom of all CFB in penalties with 102 for an average of 51.8 yards per game. Against a team that thrives on field position and defensive efficiency, that could be the difference between a win and a loss.

Prediction and Best Bet

This game is a coin flip to most, but not here.

Texas has the higher ranking, the returning defensive pieces, and the headline QB, but they don’t have the edge where it counts — experience, consistency, and a proven track record in these types of games. They could upset this one, but the facts back OSU for opening weekend.

Ohio State wins this game at home because its defense will rattle Arch Manning early. Julian Sayin won’t have to be perfect, and he probably won’t be, but he just has to be good enough. And he will be, because the Buckeyes have the better supporting cast.

• Texas vs Ohio State Prediction: Ohio State 24, Texas 20
• Best Bet: Ohio State moneyline at -125

Forget the points. If you’re betting this game, take the Buckeyes straight up on the moneyline. The home field, the defense, and Ryan Day’s track record in big games all point to Ohio State getting it done.