Sports Leagues and Players Unions Are Asking the CFTC to Regulate Prediction Markets — What That Means for Bettors

In late April 2026, the players associations representing athletes in the NFL, MLB, NBA, NHL, and MLS sent a formal letter to CFTC Chairman Michael Selig asking the agency to impose new regulations on prediction markets that offer sports-related event contracts. The ask came from the NFLPA, MLBPA, NBPA, NHLPA, and MLSPA collectively — a rare unified front from labor organizations that typically focus on wages and working conditions. Their letter arrived as the CFTC was still accepting public comments on a new rulemaking framework for prediction markets. The leagues themselves have separately been working toward their own influence over CFTC oversight. The question for anyone who uses Kalshi or Polymarket to bet on sports: what does league and player involvement in federal regulation actually mean for the contracts you can trade?

What the Players Associations Are Asking For

The players associations did not ask the CFTC to ban prediction markets outright. Instead, they laid out a specific list of regulatory requests focused on athlete protection and manipulation risk. The letter called for a prohibition on contracts based on negative outcomes or events that a single individual could manipulate — explicitly including contracts tied to whether an athlete is injured or penalized. This category of markets, sometimes called prop-style event contracts, has attracted particular scrutiny because a player who knows in advance they plan to sit out or take themselves out of a game could theoretically profit on those contracts.

The players unions also asked the CFTC to create a transparent process for petitioning the removal of prohibited contracts, establish a public list of bad actors barred from participating in event contracts, and require sports venues to enforce fan conduct policies against prediction market-related harassment. That last request reflects incidents in which athletes or their families have been targeted by fans with financial stakes in outcomes those individuals could influence. The players associations added that if leagues share misconduct information with the CFTC, the affected athletes and their union representatives should receive that same information simultaneously to preserve due process rights.

What the Leagues Have Already Secured

The players unions’ letter came on top of moves the leagues themselves have already made. The CFTC signed a memorandum of understanding with Major League Baseball in March 2026, creating a formal information-sharing framework between the regulator and the league to detect manipulation and insider trading in event contract markets. MLB Commissioner Rob Manfred signed the MOU with CFTC Chairman Selig at the World Baseball Classic in Miami, describing information sharing as “the most important thing” for protecting game integrity.

MLB also struck a commercial deal with Polymarket making it the exclusive prediction market exchange of the league, while simultaneously committing Polymarket to restrict markets the league considers integrity risks — including individual pitch results and umpire and manager decisions. The structure mirrors what the NHL did in October 2025 when it named both Kalshi and Polymarket as official prediction market partners, granting trademark usage rights and the ability to remove contracts the league deems inappropriate. NHL Commissioner Gary Bettman said the league has the ability to “take down any contracts that we think are inappropriate” and monitors markets in real time.

On the regulatory side, CFTC Chairman Selig has stated clearly that his agency will “afford a lot of deference to the leagues” when assessing which contracts are readily susceptible to manipulation. The CFTC’s March 2026 staff advisory recommended that exchanges consult with relevant leagues before listing sports contracts, rely on official league data for settlement, and cooperate with league-run integrity investigations. This is not a binding legal requirement — it is guidance — but it creates a strong regulatory incentive for platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket to engage with leagues proactively or face heightened CFTC scrutiny.

How CFTC Currently Regulates Prediction Markets

Prediction markets that operate as federally designated contract markets — as Kalshi does — are regulated under the Commodity Exchange Act. The CFTC’s framework requires exchanges to comply with 23 statutory Core Principles, the most relevant of which is Core Principle 3: contracts must not be readily susceptible to manipulation. The CFTC has exclusive jurisdiction over these platforms, a position it has actively defended in federal court against state gambling regulators who have attempted to shut prediction markets down through gaming laws.

In February 2026, the CFTC filed an amicus brief in a federal appeals court case — North American Derivatives Exchange v. State of Nevada — asserting that CFTC jurisdiction preempts state regulation of event contracts. The agency has simultaneously been working on a new rulemaking process, publishing an Advance Notice of Proposed Rulemaking in March 2026 that solicited public input on how existing rules should apply to prediction markets and whether new ones are needed. Comments were due April 30, 2026 — the same day the players associations submitted their letter.

The Integrity Fee Parallel

The pattern of leagues seeking regulatory involvement in a new gambling format has a direct historical precedent. When state-by-state sports betting legalization accelerated after the Supreme Court struck down PASPA in 2018, professional leagues lobbied hard for “integrity fees” — a percentage of betting handle paid to the leagues in exchange for their data and brand cooperation. Several states rejected integrity fees outright, but leagues ultimately secured commercial data licensing deals and official sportsbook partnerships that generate ongoing revenue. The structure that MLB struck with Polymarket — official status in exchange for integrity guardrails and data arrangements — is essentially that same playbook applied to prediction markets.

The difference is that prediction markets operate under federal CFTC oversight rather than state gambling law, which means the leverage point has shifted from state legislatures to a single federal regulator. Leagues that successfully embed themselves in the CFTC’s advisory framework gain a more centralized and durable form of influence than they could achieve through 50 separate state negotiations. For platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket, cooperating with league integrity requests is increasingly a prerequisite for operating without regulatory friction.

What This Means for Bettors on Kalshi and Polymarket

The practical consequences for users of prediction markets depend on which specific requests the CFTC acts on. A ban on contracts tied to individual player injuries or penalties would remove a category of markets that currently generates significant trading volume. Prop-style contracts on whether a specific player scores, commits a foul, or gets ejected are among the most engaging for casual bettors — and they are exactly the type of contract the players associations want prohibited.

League involvement in contract approval could also affect market availability more broadly. If exchanges must demonstrate league approval before listing sports contracts — or face the threat of having contracts challenged post-listing — the range of markets available to bettors could narrow to those leagues are comfortable with. That would likely mean more conservative, aggregate outcome markets and fewer individual performance or in-game event contracts.

For bettors who have been using prediction markets precisely because they offer contract types not available on licensed sportsbook reviews platforms — granular in-game props, niche markets, and binary outcomes on specific events — the regulatory direction is not favorable. The market is moving toward greater league integration, not less. Understanding what that integration looks like in practice is increasingly important for anyone building a prediction market betting strategy. The full CFTC rulemaking process is ongoing, and the final rules will determine how much authority leagues actually gain over what you can trade.