Los Angeles Dodgers vs Milwaukee Brewers Prediction: Can Ohtani’s Two-Way Magic Carry LA on FOX?

Shohei Ohtani homered on the first pitch he saw, then took the mound and threw five scoreless innings. That was Friday night. Saturday at American Family Field in Milwaukee, the Los Angeles Dodgers and Milwaukee Brewers meet again in what should be one of the most-watched regular season games of the week. The Brewers lead the NL Central at 30-18, the Dodgers are 31-20 and among the favorites to represent the NL in October, and FOX is carrying this one nationally at 7:15 PM ET.

Milwaukee has been one of the better stories in baseball this season. At 30-18, the Brewers sit atop the NL Central, eight games above .500 and riding an 8-2 mark in their last 10. They have a quality rotation and a bullpen that manager Pat Murphy deploys aggressively. American Family Field has been a difficult environment for opposing offenses this year. The Dodgers, meanwhile, have been clicking on all cylinders with Ohtani’s two-way brilliance leading the charge.

Oddsmakers Lean LA Slightly

The Dodgers opened as -126 road favorites, with the Brewers sitting at +108 to win at home. That is a tight line, which reflects the quality of both teams. Milwaukee’s home record this season is strong, and the Brewers have shown they can beat anybody on their own turf. The market is essentially saying this is a near coin flip with a slight Dodger lean, largely on the back of whatever starting pitcher Los Angeles rolls out there after Ohtani’s outing Friday night.

The Brewers at +108 represent genuine value given their home-field advantage and the fact that Los Angeles will not be starting Ohtani again so quickly after his five-inning appearance on Friday.

Ohtani’s Brilliance, Milwaukee’s Balance

Let’s get the obvious out of the way: Shohei Ohtani is having another extraordinary season. Hitting leadoff and pitching on the same night, he put together one of the more dazzling individual performances you will see in any sport on Friday — a leadoff home run on the first pitch of the game followed by five scoreless innings on the mound. He is not scheduled to start Saturday, but his presence in the lineup as a hitter makes the Dodgers’ order impossible to approach casually.

Los Angeles is 31-20, sitting in the thick of an NL West race and among the elite teams in the National League. Their lineup is stacked from top to bottom. Beyond Ohtani, Mookie Betts anchors the order with veteran leadership, and the Dodgers’ ability to score runs in bunches makes them dangerous in any ballpark. Their run differential of plus-65, with 252 runs scored, is among the best in all of baseball.

Milwaukee’s strength this year has been their pitching. The Brewers have not had a dominant top-of-rotation ace, but they have assembled a deep, reliable rotation and a capable bullpen. Their approach — limit opponents, grind counts, stay in games — has worked consistently all season. At 30-18, they have beaten teams with superior offensive firepower by simply not giving them anything easy to hit.

The Brewers’ home numbers back up their standing in the division. They are a quality outfit capable of beating the Dodgers tonight. Whoever Milwaukee sends to the mound Saturday will have to navigate an LA lineup that does not chase pitches and punishes mistakes. But Milwaukee has shown all year that their pitchers can be precise and effective against the best lineups in baseball.

One factor to watch is the Dodgers’ bullpen management after Ohtani’s five-inning start on Friday. Los Angeles will be relying on their secondary arms early in this game, and while their bullpen is one of the deeper units in baseball, consecutive-day games put strain on any staff. Murphy and the Brewers have the kind of patient approach that wears down opposing bullpens over the course of a game.

Head-to-head this season, these two clubs have played competitive baseball. The NL West versus NL Central cross-division matchup has produced close games, and this series has been no different. Milwaukee’s home environment gives them genuine advantage — their fans are engaged and the park plays well for hitters and pitchers alike depending on the weather.

Prediction and Best Bet

This is a legitimate coin-flip game, which is exactly why the Brewers at plus-money represent the edge. Milwaukee is at home, playing well, and the Dodgers are going to the bullpen earlier than they would like after Ohtani threw five innings on Friday night. LA is the better team on paper, but this is not a clear-cut spot for the Dodgers.

• Prediction: Milwaukee Brewers 4, Los Angeles Dodgers 3
• Best Bet: Brewers +108 on the moneyline

Take Milwaukee at home at plus-money. A +108 price on a team sitting at 30-18 with home-field advantage against a Dodger squad relying on the bullpen from the night before is too good to pass up when the game is this close on paper. The Brewers have been excellent at American Family Field all season and have earned the right to be backed as a slight home underdog.