Sabres vs. Canadiens Game 4 Prediction: Can Buffalo Claw Back at the Bell Centre?
The Buffalo Sabres find themselves in a familiar kind of pressure spot as they head into Game 4 of their second-round Eastern Conference series against the Montreal Canadiens on Tuesday night at the Bell Centre. Montreal leads the series 2-1 after a dominant 6-2 beatdown of the Sabres in Game 3 on Sunday, and they will be looking to put Buffalo in a serious hole tonight. The Canadiens are surging with the momentum of back-to-back wins while Buffalo is fighting to keep its remarkable playoff run alive after winning its first playoff series since 2006-07.
This is a fascinating battle between two Atlantic Division rivals that finished the regular season separated by just three points in the standings. Buffalo posted a 50-23-9 record while Montreal went 48-24-10, and both teams needed real resilience to survive the first round. The Sabres knocked off the Boston Bruins while the Canadiens came back from the dead to beat the Tampa Bay Lightning in Game 7 on the road. Now, after trading haymakers through three games, Montreal holds the upper hand with home ice firmly back in their corner.
What the Market Thinks Heading Into Game 4
Sportsbooks have the Montreal Canadiens installed as moderate favorites at home tonight. DraftKings has Montreal at -135 on the moneyline with Buffalo at +114, which reflects the Canadiens’ momentum advantage after their Game 3 blowout but acknowledges that this Sabres squad has been excellent on the road throughout the postseason. The over/under sits at 6 goals at most major books, a relatively tight total that reflects the quality of goaltending on both sides when they are at their best.
Two Goalies, Two Stories — and a Monster Momentum Shift
The goaltending picture is one of the defining storylines of this series, and it cuts in Montreal’s favor right now. Canadiens rookie Jakub Dobes has been nothing short of spectacular in these playoffs. His performance in Game 7 against Tampa Bay — stopping 28 of 29 shots to win on the road with just nine shots on goal — was the kind of legendary postseason moment that defines careers. Going into Game 4, he has stopped 77 of his last 79 shots dating back to Game 5 of the first round, a .975 save percentage stretch that is almost hard to believe.
For Buffalo, Alex Lyon took over the starting role from Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen in the first round and helped the Sabres win three of four games, posting a .955 save percentage. But he has lost his last two starts in this series and allowed a combined 11 goals. Lyon is still ranked second in high-danger save percentage this postseason at .926, which tells you the talent is there, but Montreal’s pressure game has clearly gotten into his head. If Lyon can put the Game 3 shellacking behind him and recapture his earlier form, Buffalo has a real shot tonight. If he shakes early, it could be a long night in Montreal.
The offensive star matchup is just as compelling. Cole Caufield had a career-high 51 goals during the regular season, becoming the first Montreal player to hit the 50-goal mark since Stephane Richer in 1989-90. He was held in check for much of Game 3’s first period but then scored on the power play to swing momentum decisively Montreal’s way. Tage Thompson, the 6-foot-6 power forward who anchors Buffalo’s offense, scored in Game 3 to snap a seven-game goal drought and has seven points total in this series. The battle between these two American-born goal scorers — Caufield leads at 88 goals over the past two regular seasons combined versus Thompson’s 84 — is must-watch hockey.
Buffalo’s defensive depth is genuinely impressive. Rasmus Dahlin, the team’s captain, has been a monster from the back end with five postseason points already. Defensemen Bowen Byram and Owen Power have also been productive, making the Sabres one of only a handful of teams with three defensemen recording four or more postseason points. That blue line can quarterback an offense in a hurry. Lane Hutson, Montreal’s 22-year-old defensive sensation, meanwhile has 11 points in his first 12 career postseason games and has been the engine driving the Canadiens’ power play.
Montreal’s special teams advantage was on full display in Game 3, when they went 2-for-5 on the power play while controlling the game’s tempo. The Canadiens scored four unanswered goals in the second period and never looked back. Alex Newhook scored twice in both Game 2 and Game 3, Juraj Slafkovsky added a deflection goal off a Hutson point shot, and the Bell Centre is going to be absolutely electric tonight. Buffalo will need to avoid taking penalties or this game could spiral quickly.
One silver lining for the Sabres: they have been outstanding on the road all postseason, winning five straight away games before finally dropping Game 3 in Montreal. Their 5-on-5 shot attempt percentage of 54.4 percent is the best among all remaining teams in these playoffs. Josh Doan, Zach Benson, and Rasmus Dahlin hold the top three spots league-wide in that category. Buffalo can control the puck and control the game when they are playing their game. The question is whether the Canadiens’ speed and momentum will allow that to happen at the Bell Centre.
Prediction and Best Bet
This is a game where Montreal’s home environment, recent momentum, and goaltending form all point in one direction. Jakub Dobes has been playing at a historically elite level, the Canadiens have won back-to-back games for the first time all season, and the Bell Centre crowd will be rocking. Buffalo has shown it can win on the road in these playoffs, and Tage Thompson breaking his goal drought is a good sign, but the Sabres allowed four unanswered goals in Game 3 and never recovered. That kind of collapse leaves a mark.
The Canadiens have the right ingredients to extend their series lead to 3-1 tonight. Their power play has clicked at the right moments, their rookie goalie is playing with extraordinary confidence, and they have multiple offensive options beyond just Caufield. Montreal wins this one and puts Buffalo in a must-win situation heading back to KeyBank Center.
- Prediction: Canadiens 4, Sabres 2
- Best Bet: Montreal Canadiens on the moneyline (-135)
At -135, the Canadiens moneyline offers solid value for a team playing its best hockey of the playoffs at home with a rested and red-hot goaltender. The Sabres are not done yet — but tonight belongs to Montreal.
Aaron White
Sports Betting Contributor
Aaron White graduated from Northwestern University with a B.A. in Economics. His industry experience includes projects for the Chicago Cubs, The Sporting News, and QL Gaming Group. At Hello Rookie, he covers the NFL and NBA from a betting and DFS perspective.
