Rays vs Mets Prediction, Betting Odds, and Our Best Bet

The Tampa Bay Rays head north up the east coast to open a 3-game weekend series against the surging New York Mets on Friday night at Citi Field. With the first pitch set for 7:10 PM ET, both teams enter with very different momentum. Tampa Bay is trying to hang around in the AL East and keep their relevancy as we get into the midpoint of the season, while New York is rolling through the NL riding a 6-game win streak and sitting on top of the NL East standings.

Game Details and Pitching Matchup

The Rays hand the ball to Taj Bradley with his 4-5, 4.58 ERA, and 1.25 WHIP. He’s really been a mixed bag through his first 13 starts. His last game didn’t help that ERA much — he gave up 7 earned runs in 4 innings against Miami, allowing 6 hits and a dinger in the process. He’s been striking batters out at a solid rate at 66 in 74.2 innings, but the walks at 29 and home runs at 10 are starting to catch up with him. He has the ability to have a decent game, but he’s very inconsistent.

Across the field, Clay Holmes is sitting at 7-3, 2.95 ERA, and 1.19 WHIP and has quietly been one of the more reliable starters in the National League. He’s given up just 4 earned runs in 13 innings this month but has surrendered 3 HRs in his last 2 starts. Holmes has also been efficient, tossing 6+ innings in 6 of his last 7 starts and keeping hitters off balance with a deep pitch mix.

Citi Field should give him a boost as well. It’s played pitcher-friendly all year with an average of just 7.2 total runs per game. Holmes has handled his home mound well, and with how he’s been commanding the strike zone lately — just 23 walks in over 73 innings — he’ll be a tough matchup for a Tampa lineup that ranks middle of the pack in most offensive categories.

While this pitching matchup isn’t necessarily 2 Cy Young candidates going head to head, they’re both good enough to get the job done for their respective clubs.

Odds and Team Trends

The Mets come in as clear favorites at -180 on the moneyline and deservedly so. They own a solid 45-24 record, tops in the NL East, and have gone 27-15 at home. Not a bad season so far. Meanwhile, the Rays are 36-32 and trying to stay within striking distance in the AL East. They’re 13-12 on the road and just dropped 2 of 3 to Boston. They’re entering tonight’s matchup as the underdogs with a +147 on the moneyline.

New York’s current 6-game win streak includes series sweeps over the Nationals and Rockies. In that stretch, they’ve outscored both opponents 41-12. Sure, the Rockies and the Nats aren’t that great, but to roll a sweep on both teams says enough about this club. The Rays, on the other hand, are 3-2 in their last 5 but haven’t beaten a team with a winning record since May. That doesn’t bode well for them going against a surging Mets.

Pete Alonso has been the offensive engine for the Mets as he leads the team with 17 home runs, 63 RBIs, and a .298 AVG. He’s been on a tear lately and continues to mash at Citi Field. Juan Soto isn’t far behind as he’s batting .371 over his last 10 games with 3 homers and 7 RBIs. He’s finally coming around and getting comfortable in the Mets uniform. But that’s the interesting thing is that this is a Mets offense that doesn’t rely on just one guy — they’ve got depth and multiple ways to beat you.

But let’s not forget that the Rays do have some threats of their own. Junior Caminero leads the team with 15 homers and 41 RBIs, though he’s hitting just .249 AVG. Jonathan Aranda has quietly put together a decent season at the plate, slashing .314/.403/.475. And Yandy Diaz has been hot lately, hitting .353 this month with a pair of homers in there as well.

Still, Tampa’s team batting average is .245 and their OBP ranks 18th in the majors. They’re also just 20-21 in night games. Those aren’t terrible numbers, but they don’t really give us hopes for an upset, either. This is especially true against one of the league’s best rotations and bullpens.

Prediction and Our Best Bet

There’s a lot working in New York’s favor and we can’t overlook that. Holmes has been dialed in and is coming off 2 strong starts. The Mets’ lineup is clicking and giving their SPs run support, their bullpen is steady, and they’ve been dominating at home. The Rays are gritty, but Taj Bradley’s inconsistency is a real liability in this matchup. We don’t see him going too deep into tonight’s game.

It’s hard to see a path for the Rays here unless Bradley turns in a gem or they jump Holmes early — and both are really long shots. New York just has too much firepower right now, and they’re not giving games away.

• Rays vs Mets Prediction: Mets 5, Rays 2
• Best Bet: New York Mets -1.5 run line at +124

We expect the Mets to control the tempo of the game, keep Bradley under pressure, and do enough to win comfortably behind Holmes and their balanced lineup. We’re siding with the run line on this bet because going from -180 to +124 for a single run is a steal and the Mets can easily grab that. Of course, the safer bet is the Mets on the moneyline, but it really boils down to what your risk appetite is.