Ravens vs Dolphins Prediction, Betting Odds, and Our Best Bet for TNF

The Baltimore Ravens are heading down to South Florida for a TNF showdown with the Miami Dolphins, and while both teams enter at 2-6, there’s more than just a win on the line. It’s really about salvaging a season, building some momentum, and — maybe most importantly — finding consistency in a year where both sides have struggled to string anything positive together. This could be a turning point for one of these two organizations.

Game Details and Betting Odds

With the kickoff at Hard Rock Stadium in Miami Gardens, the bookmakers aren’t hiding how they feel about this one. Baltimore is a massive 7.5-point road favorite, and the over/under is set at a whopping 51.5 total points. The Ravens are listed at -455 on the moneyline, while the Dolphins are heavy underdogs at +350.

That spread just goes to show two things — Lamar Jackson’s return to the Ravens lineup and Miami’s inconsistency. Beyond that, there’s not much more to it. Baltimore is fresh off a 30-16 win over the Bears, while Miami surprised everyone with a dominant and convincing 34-10 win on the road in Atlanta. But can either team really be trusted to keep that momentum going? Once you start digging into the numbers a bit, one of them looks like it’s just a spark away from starting a fire.

Who Has the Edge?

Lamar Jackson is getting back on the field after missing 3 games with a hamstring injury, and his presence immediately elevates the Ravens’ ceiling. In just 4 games earlier this season, Jackson has thrown 10 touchdowns to just 1 interception. On top of that, he’s completing 71.6% of his passes and averaging over 217 passing YPG. He also rushed for 166 yards, adding a dual-threat layer to Baltimore’s offense that no backup could replicate.

Meanwhile, Tua Tagovailoa leads the league in pass attempts and has been somewhat productive on paper with his 1,518 yards, 15 TDs, and 10 INTs. But those numbers simply haven’t translated to wins, and that’s what matters. Miami is just 2-6 and ranks 21st in PPG with 21.8. The offense sputters in key moments, and Tagovailoa’s 10 picks have killed several promising drives.

But let’s not deny the fact that both teams have plenty of offensive talent. The Ravens get it done on the ground behind Derrick Henry, who has 510 yards and 6 scores through 7 games. Jackson is a threat as a runner, too, and his ability to extend plays helps keep Baltimore’s offense on the field and on schedule. Rookie receiver Zay Flowers leads the team with 486 yards on 41 catches, and he’ll be extra motivated for this one because he’s from Fort Lauderdale and gets to play back home in front of family.

On the other side of the field, Miami’s most reliable weapon has been Jaylen Waddle, who leads the team with 504 receiving yards and 4 touchdowns. And De’Von Achane, the breakout rookie back, leads the ground game with 539 rushing yards, averaging five yards per carry. 

So, offensively, these teams aren’t that far apart. But the difference comes on the other side of the ball.

Defense, Injuries, and Physicality

Defensively, both units have some serious issues — but Baltimore’s are more glaring.

The Ravens rank dead last in points allowed per game with 30.0 and are 30th in total yards allowed. They’re getting torched in the air with 250.7 passing yards allowed per game and can’t generate consistent pressure, especially with Justin Madubuike on IR. Baltimore has only 9 sacks all season, tied for 31st in the league. Those are dismal numbers.

Miami’s defense isn’t elite either, but they’ve shown a few flashes. Against Atlanta last week, they held a top-5 rushing offense to just 45 yards, which caught everyone by surprise. That win snapped a 4-game losing streak, and it was by far their best defensive performance of the season. For the year, they allow 26.9 PPG, which is good for 27th in the league, and are particularly vulnerable against the run — 145.0 rushing yards allowed per game, which ranks 28th. That’s a big problem when facing Henry and Jackson. However, they did show up against Atlanta, so there’s hope for this rushing defense.

If Bradley Chubb can’t get on the field as he’s currently questionable, that takes away Miami’s top pass rusher. He leads the team with 4 sacks. Losing Chubb against a mobile QB like Jackson would only widen the gap between these two teams’ defenses.

The Dolphins want to be physical, and they talked about it after the Atlanta win, but Baltimore lives in that style. Derrick Henry, Lamar, and even the offensive line are built for that kind of game. This is where the Ravens can take over.

Recent Form and Matchup History

Sure, both teams won last week, but only Baltimore looked consistent doing it. They handled the Bears with ease, putting up 30 points and allowing just 16. Of course, that was the Bears, but before that, they were on a 4-game skid, which included losses to the Chiefs and Lions, both playoff-caliber teams.

Miami, on the other hand, was absolutely dominated by Cleveland just two weeks ago, getting routed 31-6, and gave up 29 points to the Chargers and 27 to the Panthers. Yes, they beat the Falcons convincingly, but how much does a win over Desmond Ridder really tell us? Not much.

Historically, this matchup has been relatively unpredictable. Tua led comeback wins in 2021 and 2022, but the Ravens blew Miami out in 2023. With Lamar healthy and Miami’s defense still inconsistent, another Baltimore win looks more than likely.

Final Prediction — Ravens Roll

This game comes down to the QB play, the run game, and who can get stops when it matters. Baltimore checks all 3 of those boxes. They’re healthier, more physical, and have a better overall roster. If Lamar plays like he has through 4 games this year, this one shouldn’t even be close.

Miami might keep it interesting for a half, but they haven’t proven they can stop the run or force turnovers. That’s a bad combo against a team like Baltimore.

• Prediction: Ravens 30, Dolphins 20
• Best Bet: Baltimore Ravens -7.5

Weirder things have happened, but the Ravens should cover the spread against a Dolphins team that’s been one-dimensional and unreliable on defense.