Penguins vs Maple Leafs Prediction, Odds, and Best Bet of the Night

The Pittsburgh Penguins will take on Toronto tonight for what is shaping up to be an early season measuring stick game. Both teams undoubtedly have plenty of talent, but only one is looking like a complete hockey team right now. Pittsburgh, sitting at 2nd in the Metro at 8-3-2, has been humming along with strong two-way play, while the Maple Leafs are still trying to find some rhythm and consistency, sitting at 6-5-1 and near the bottom of the Atlantic. But, all hope is not lost because that’s still a decent record given how competitive the Atlantic division is.

Game Details and Betting Odds

Puck drop is scheduled for tonight in Toronto, and the Maple Leafs open as the betting favorites on home ice. Toronto is -175 on the moneyline, while Pittsburgh comes in at +145 as the underdog. The puck line has Toronto -1.5 at +145, and Pittsburgh +1.5 at -175. The total is set at 6.5 goals, with the over at -105 and the under at -115.

Despite the odds leaning toward the home team, there’s still a real case to be made that the visitors are the sharper side of this bet. Thee Leafs aren’t playing bad hockey, but the Pens are definitely in full form.

Team Stats, Key Players, and Recent Form

Offensively, these teams look fairly similar on paper. Toronto is averaging 3.58 GPG, just slightly ahead of Pittsburgh’s 3.54. But dig a little deeper, and Pittsburgh is undeniably more efficient with its chances. They have a league-best power play at 32.3%, and their 13.3% shooting percentage ranks 3rd in the NHL. Toronto’s power play has been totally ineffective, converting just 12.5% of the time which is 29th in the league.

Evgeni Malkin is driving the Penguins’ offense with 18 points spanning 3 goals and 15 assists, and he’s getting tons of help from Sidney Crosby, who leads the team with 9 goals. Malkin’s 15 assists are tied for 2nd in the NHL, and his playmaking has been nothing shy of electric. Pittsburgh leads the NHL with 83 assists, showing they’re getting contributions throughout the lineup and working the zone.

Toronto’s offense has been fine, but top-heavy. John Tavares leads the way with 16 points over 6 goals and 10 assists), and William Nylander has added 12 helpers, but the depth scoring hasn’t shown up. That’s been a big part of the problem during their up-and-down stretch early in the season. Over their last 5 games, the Leafs are 3-2 but really haven’t been dominant in any of them. They beat Philadelphia 5-2 in their most recent game, but dropped games to Columbus and Buffalo before that. The consistency isn’t there.

On the other end of the ice, Pittsburgh is 3-2 over its last 5 as well, with more convincing results. They shut down St. Louis 6-3 and beat Minnesota 4-1, but did drop their last one to Winnipeg, 5-2. However, let’s be real, Winnipeg is looking great this year.

The real difference in this matchup is goaltending.

Toronto’s goalies are simply struggling. Anthony Stolarz is 4-4 with a 3.13 GAA and a .893 SV%. His backup, Cayden Primeau, has been worse in his 2 starts, posting a 4.30 GAA and a dismal .838 SV%. Toronto has allowed 44 goals, which ranks 26th in the league and on top of that, defensive structure hasn’t been their strength, and their penalty kill, while respectable at 83.3%, has been under constant pressure.

Meanwhile, Pittsburgh is getting elite-level play between the pipes. Tristan Jarry is 5-1 with a 2.35 GAA and a .923 SV%, and Arturs Silovs has been solid as well where he’s posting a 2.66 GAA with a .913 SV%. The Penguins have allowed just 34 goals which is good for 12th best in the league and have kept opponents from capitalizing on the power play. Their PK sits at 82.9%, nearly identical to Toronto’s, but they’re also much more disciplined, having taken 45 more penalty minutes fewer than the Leafs this season.

Pittsburgh also leads in a few key team categories — they have more goals with 46 to 43, more assists with 83 to 76, better power play percentage, higher shooting percentage, and significantly more efficient overall special teams play. The Penguins are simply playing cleaner hockey all around and that goes a long way in a matchup like this.

Prediction and Best Bet

This looks like a situation where the odds don’t quite match the reality on the ice. Yes, the Leafs are at home and we have to respect that, but there’s not much else in their favor here. Their goaltending has been completely unreliable, their PK unit is overworked, and their power play is nearly nonexistent. When you’re up against Crosby, Malkin, and a red-hot Penguins power play unit, that’s a recipe for trouble.

Pittsburgh has the better goaltending, the hotter special teams, and their top players are undoubtedly clicking. The Leafs will need a near-perfect effort to hold them off, and based on their recent form, that doesn’t seem likely.

• Prediction: Penguins 4, Maple Leafs 2
• Best Bet: Take the Penguins moneyline at +145

There’s clear value with this bet since the better team is catching plus money. Toronto might be the favorite at the books, but they’re not the better team on the ice and that’s painfully obvious.