Missouri vs Oklahoma Prediction — Run Game Meets Red Zone Machine

It’s going down in Norman, Oklahoma, later today as Missouri and Oklahoma kick off at noon in a game that feels like strength vs strength.

The Tigers are looking to shake up the SEC with a signature win, while the Sooners are looking to stay hot as ever after knocking off Alabama just last week in a nailbiter. One team leans on ground dominance and clock control while the other thrives on defensive grit and mistake-free red zone execution. Something’s got to give, but the question is who will break through?

Game Details and Betting Odds

Oklahoma enters the game as a 7.5-point favorite, with the total set at a fairly low 41.5 points. The Sooners are listed at -290 on the moneyline, while Missouri sits as the underdog at +240.

Missouri comes in with a 7-3 overall record and a 3-3 mark in SEC battles, tied with Tennessee in the conference standings, whereas Oklahoma, currently 8-2 overall and 4-2 in the Big 12, is still pushing for a higher-tier bowl with another win to solidify its resume.

Both teams still have a chance at the College Football Playoffs, and this game could propel one or the other into the serious discussions.

Ground Game vs Red Zone Perfection

Missouri’s identity is simple — run the football and play physical defense. That’s it.

The Tigers average 241.7 rushing YPG, good for 6th overall in the nation, thanks largely to their workhorse, Ahmad Hardy, who’s racked up 1,346 yards and 15 TDs on 197 carries. They control the clock with 32:33 in average possession, and their total offense ranks 21st nationally, putting up 450.9 YPG. Those are tough numbers for any team to compete with.

While Beau Pribula’s passing numbers won’t wow anyone as he has just 1,685 yards, 11 TDs, and 7 INTs, his efficiency and ability to keep the chains moving are enough when Hardy is rolling and pushing through with big yard plays.

Defensively, Missouri is undeniably stout. They allow just 277.5 total yards per game, putting them 10th in FBS and 19.9 PPG. Their pass defense is ranked 15th nationally, and they give up only 107.6 rushing yards per game. For the most part, those are decent stats, but you have to look a little deeper than just those.

But they’ve had trouble against better teams. Losses to Texas A&M, Vanderbilt, Alabama, and a nail-biter OT win over Auburn point to a team that beats the weaker competition but struggles to finish against top opponents, and that’s exactly what they’ll find in Norman.

Oklahoma, on the other hand, wins with red zone execution and an elite defense. They’re scoring on 100% of their red zone trips, best in the country. That’s not a typo. Even when drives stall, they’re walking away with some points at the very least, and most of the time it ends up as 7. That’s how they escaped Tuscaloosa with a 23-21 win over Alabama, despite throwing for just 138 yards and rushing for 89 as a team. That game, Alabama won out in just about every metric, but the Sooners figured it out.

Their offense isn’t what we’d call flashy — 357.7 YPG, 90th in the country — but John Mateer manages the game as well as anyone. He’s thrown for 2,087 yards with 8 TDs and 7 INTs on a 63.9% completion rate. Isaiah Sategna III leads in receiving with 718 yards and 5 scores, while the run game is by-committee behind Tory Blaylock and his 402 yards and 4 TDs.

The real edge for the Sooners above all else is their defense. They allow just 14.8 PPG, which is good for 8th in the FBS, only 278.4 total yards per game, and rank top 10 against the run at 82.2 rushing yards allowed. That’s a direct challenge to Missouri’s bread and butter on the ground. So, with these 2 dominant defenses going head-to-head, it’s pretty easy to see why the total is listed at just 41.5 points.

Also, despite only 6 interceptions on the year, Oklahoma doesn’t give up many big plays, holding opponents to 196.2 passing yards per game.

Prediction — Sooners Slow the Tigers

This matchup is tight on paper, and both defenses are among the top 15 nationally. Missouri has more offensive firepower, but Oklahoma’s ability to bend without breaking — especially in the red zone — gives them the edge in close games, and this just might be one of those.

Missouri’s run game is undoubtedly lethal, but Oklahoma’s run defense is the best they’ll have seen all year. If Hardy gets bottled up even a little, Missouri becomes one-dimensional, and they won’t have an answer for that. Pribula is solid, but not the guy you want throwing 35 times in a hostile road environment like they’ll find in Oklahoma.

Add in that Oklahoma just beat Alabama and has now won 2 straight, and momentum is clearly on the Sooners’ side. Mateer may not light up the box score, but he plays smart football, avoids mistakes, and keeps the offense on track. And if this turns into a field position game, the Sooners’ red zone perfection becomes the difference.

• Prediction: Oklahoma 24, Missouri 17
• Best Bet: Oklahoma -7.5

This line has stayed pretty steady, and there’s value on the Sooners to cover the spread at home. Missouri relies too much on the run, and Oklahoma is one of the few defenses that can match their physicality up front and keep the yardage at a minimum. Add in Missouri’s 64th-ranked red zone defense going up against the best red zone offense in the country, and that’s a problem.

Sure, we expect this one to stay close for a while, but Oklahoma pulls away in the 2nd half with a key red zone stop and another methodical scoring drive.

For this bet, all you need to do is keep it simple, trust the defense, and trust the home field.