Blue Jays vs Dodgers Game 4 Prediction, Betting Odds, and Our Best Bet

Game 4 of the 2025 World Series shifts the spotlight back to Dodger Stadium, where the Dodgers lead the Blue Jays 2 games to 1 after an instant-classic 18-inning showdown. Shohei Ohtani was his own show once again as he blasted 2 HRs and set the tone in extras. Now, no matter how tired he is, he’ll take the mound against Shane Bieber as LA looks to push Toronto to the brink.

Game Preview and Pitching Matchup

After a chaotic Game 3 that saw an insane 609 total pitches, 37 runners left on base, 25 position players used, and 19 pitchers deployed, both teams are limping into Game 4 drained but determined. Of course, it’s nothing a few cups of coffee can’t handle.

The Dodgers came out on top in that 6-5 win, capped off by Freddie Freeman’s walk-off homer in the bottom of the 18th. But now it’s Ohtani’s turn to lead from the bump.

Shohei Ohtani is coming into Game 4 with postseason numbers that read like video game stats. He’s 2-0 with a 2.25 ERA, allowing only 5 hits across 12 innings with 19 Ks. Opponents are hitting just .119 against him this postseason, and he’s walked only 4 batters. And let’s not forget that he is just as dangerous at the plate, where he also hit 3 home runs in his last outing.

Shane Bieber has had a rockier road to this start. In his 3 playoff appearances, he owns a 4.38 ERA, having given up 16 hits and 6 earned runs in 12.1 innings. His 1.54 WHIP and 3 home runs allowed are red flags — especially against a Dodgers team that’s already slugged 20 homers this postseason. Sure, Bieber was solid in his last full start against Seattle, but he struggled quite a bit in New York and again in his brief outing last week.

The pitching matchup clearly favors Ohtani, who has both form and momentum. That’s not to say that Bieber can’t have the game of his career, but it won’t be easy.

Odds Breakdown and Betting Markets

As of now, the Dodgers are -207 favorites on the moneyline, while the Blue Jays are +168 underdogs. The run line has Los Angeles -1.5 at -102, and Toronto +1.5 at -120. The total is set at 8.5 runs, with the under at -116 and the over at -105.

Bookmakers are showing heavy respect for Ohtani and the Dodgers at home, and it makes sense, especially after the resilience they showed last night. LA has covered the run line in 3 of their last 4 playoff wins, all by 2+ runs. The under has also hit in 5 of their last 7, largely due to their elite starting pitching and inconsistent bullpen use late in games — though that unit stepped up in Game 3 with 12 straight scoreless innings.

The number at 8.5 feels right on the edge. Toronto leads all playoff teams with a .285 batting average and has scored 88 runs in 14 games, but LA has only allowed 4+ runs once in their last 6 games. That leans us toward the under, especially with Ohtani expected to go at least 6 innings and limit damage early.

Analysis and What to Watch

Let’s start with the obvious — the bullpens are absolutely gassed and taxed. Both teams emptied the tank in Game 3, where 19 total pitchers were used. We even saw Clayton Kershaw come in relief for a single out to close out an inning. There’s not much gas left in the tank for either pen, and that means the starters will need to go deep.

That gives a massive edge to the Dodgers, who have the rare luxury of trotting out the most dominant two-way player in the sport. Ohtani’s recent starts have shown tons of stamina and poise. He’s struck out 10+ in back-to-back playoff games and hasn’t allowed 3+ runs in any outing. That’s not just resilience, but it gives confidence to the rest of the team.

Offensively, the Dodgers are starting to heat up. Freeman, Ohtani, and Mookie Betts have combined for 9 homers this postseason. In Game 3 alone, the Dodgers tallied 16 hits and 7 XBHs. Their power is showing up when it matters most.

Toronto’s bats are alive, no doubt, as they had 15 hits of their own in Game 3, and Bo Bichette and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. have come through in big moments. But they left 32 runners on base, a staggering number that highlights their inability to finish off scoring chances. You can’t do that and expect to win on the road in the World Series.

Another glaring issue for the Jays is their bullpen. Unlike the Dodgers, Toronto’s middle relief has struggled under pressure, and with Bieber’s recent tendency to give up the long ball, it’s hard to trust he’ll be able to avoid damage through 5 or 6 innings, which he’ll need to do if they want to remain competitive.

The Blue Jays’ best chance is to jump on Ohtani early and force LA into their tired pen. That’s a tall order. Given Ohtani’s postseason poise and the Dodgers’ hot bats, that’s easier said than done.

Prediction and Pick

This feels like a statement game for the Dodgers. They survived a war in Game 3, and now they’ve got their ace and MVP on the mound in front of a roaring home crowd. The Jays can swing it, but they haven’t shown they can finish innings, and Bieber’s home run issues are too risky in this park.

• Prediction: Dodgers 5, Blue Jays 3
• Best Bet: Dodgers -1.5 at -102

The safe bet is to take the Dodgers on the moneyline at -207, but for more value, we’re going to go with the Dodgers -1.5 at -102. With the way they’re hitting and the confidence they’ve built, LA should cover the spread again. The total bet at 8.5 runs is a bit tougher because both teams are smoked, but as motivated as ever. If the starters can’t go deep, we might see these teams blow through 9+ runs.