Bengals vs Ravens Prediction – Can Cincinnati Survive Baltimore’s Pressure?

The Cincinnati Bengals are desperate to stay alive in the AFC North despite their hopes dwindling fast, but their road doesn’t get any easier with a Thanksgiving night showdown against the Baltimore Ravens. With both teams heading in opposite directions, this prime-time clash carries serious implications for the playoff race.

Kickoff is set for 7:20 PM CST tonight, and bookmakers have listed the Ravens as a full touchdown favorite. That’s not surprising considering the recent form of both squads, but the real question is, can the Bengals even make this competitive, or are they going to start playing for draft position?

Game Details and Betting Odds

This is a massive divisional tilt with Baltimore sitting at 6-5 and holding the top spot in the AFC North, and Cincinnati falling to 3-8 after 3 straight losses. The Ravens are 7-point favorites at home, with the total sitting at a monstrous 51.5 points.

The Bengals are +260 underdogs on the moneyline, while the Ravens sit at -325, a reflection of how much confidence the market and sportsbooks have in Baltimore holding serve at home.

Neither team has really been all that strong against the spread this season — both sit at 4-7 ATS — but the Ravens have at least looked like a real contender lately, winning 5 straight, including a dominant 23-10 performance over the Jets last week.

What the Numbers Say

We’re not going to sugarcoat it — the Bengals’ defense has been brutal.

They rank dead last in points allowed with 32.7, total yards allowed with 415.8, and passing yards allowed with 259.8. They’re also 31st in rushing defense. In essence, this is a unit getting picked apart every week, and at this point, they’re almost like a sure win for any team going up against them.

The Ravens, on the other hand, are a top-10 scoring offense at 25.0 PPG. Even if they haven’t always capitalized in the red zone, they consistently move the ball with 333.6 YPG, which isn’t great, but not terrible.

Lamar Jackson has thrown for 1,595 yards and 15 TDs with just 3 interceptions, and when paired with Derrick Henry’s 871 rushing yards and 9 TDs, Baltimore’s backfield is without a doubt dangerous.

The Bengals lean on Joe Flacco, who’s posted 1,636 yards, 13 TDs, and 4 INTs. He’s finding Ja’Marr Chase regularly as he’s logged 861 yards and 5 TDs, but the team is so pass-heavy that it’s become predictable. Cincinnati throws the ball on 59% of 1st downs, the highest rate in the league. One of the biggest questions before this game is whether or not Joe Burrow will be back in action. There’s speculation that he will be, and he’s been practicing, but no confirmation just yet.

That makes things easier for a Ravens defense that has held QBs to a 33.1 passer rating on 3rd and short, the best in the NFL.

Cincinnati’s run game is almost non-existent. They’re averaging just 84.9 rushing YPG, 30th in the NFL. It’s even worse on the road, where they’re putting up 4.2 yards per play, the lowest mark in the league.

Momentum and Matchup Trends

It’s painfully obvious that the Bengals are trending the wrong way. They’ve lost 4 of their last 5 and allowed 30+ points in nearly all of them. Most recently, they fell 26-20 to the Patriots, and before that, gave up 47 to the Bears and 39 to the Jets. There’s no sign this defense is turning the corner.

Meanwhile, Baltimore has won 5 straight and done it impressively. They’ve taken down playoff contenders like the Dolphins and Vikings, and they just shut down the Jets, holding them to 10 points.

They’ve also shown the ability to run the ball effectively when needed — in fact, in games where opponents rushed for 150+ yards, Cincinnati is 0-5 straight up this season. The Ravens have cleared that number in 2 of their last 3 wins, and it’s easy to see why with Henry getting the ball.

And while the Ravens aren’t flawless — red zone inefficiency has undeniably hurt them — they’re still getting plenty of chances. Against the Jets, they reached the red zone 5 times but only punched it in 2 of those chances. Still, they dominated possession and wore the defense down.

The Bengals might get some looks with Chase downfield, especially if the Ravens’ secondary repeats some of the mistakes it made last week and if Burrow gets the snaps. Tyrod Taylor averaged 6.6 yards per attempt in that game, a rare dent in Baltimore’s usually solid pass defense. But unlike Taylor, Flacco, and Burrow, who have limited mobility and will struggle against a pass rush that can collapse the pocket quickly.

Prediction — Ravens Dominate Another Divisional Matchup

This matchup feels lopsided, and when you look at the trends, it’s obvious as to why.

Cincinnati’s offense is too inconsistent, and its defense just can’t stop anyone — especially not an offense as balanced and explosive as Baltimore’s. Even if the Ravens stall in the red zone occasionally, they’ll have more than enough opportunities to build a lead and walk away with the win.

Lamar Jackson and Derrick Henry will most likely feast on a Bengals defense giving up 156+ rushing YPG. And unless the Bengals find a run game or get 3 turnovers, both highly unlikely, there’s little chance they keep up.

Baltimore’s defense, especially in the second half, has been absolutely lights out. They lead the NFL in second-half EPA with a -0.35 and allow success on only 52% of pass attempts — one of the best marks in the NFL. This means if Cincinnati falls behind, they’ll be walking into a trap with a pass rush ready to tee off.

• Prediction: Ravens 30, Bengals 17
• Best Bet: Ravens -7

The Ravens have been covering these kinds of spreads against weaker teams, especially at home. Cincinnati’s defense is in shambles, and with no run game, they’re too one-dimensional to hang for a full 4 quarters. Baltimore’s ability to dominate time of possession — 29:40 per game vs. Cincinnati’s 27:06 — will wear them down.

If you’re worried about a backdoor cover, the under 51.5 is a decent secondary lean, but the best play is laying the TD with Baltimore. We don’t see the Ravens not winning by 2+ scores.