Yankees vs Rays Prediction, Odds, and Our Best Bet for August 20

The New York Yankees will look to stay hot on the road as they take a visit to the Tampa Bay Rays tonight at George M. Steinbrenner Field. Riding a 4-game road winning streak and a 7-3 stretch in their last 10, New York enters this one looking every bit like a team locked in for a playoff push. That’s quite a bounce back from their losing streak earlier in the month. Tampa Bay, meanwhile, continues to search for consistency, especially after the Yankees beat them 3-1 in their previous series.

Game Details and Starting Pitchers

The first pitch is set for 7:35 PM EST tonight in Tampa. The Yankees currently sit at 67-57, good for 2nd in the AL East and 5 games behind the division-leading Blue Jays. Regardless of how the AL East plays out, they’re still leading the charge for the wild card. The Rays come in at 61-64, 4th in the division, and 11.5 games back. However, their wild-card hopes are all but gone, sitting 6.5 games back from a slot.

The starting pitching matchup features Carlos Rodon for New York and Shane Baz for Tampa Bay. On paper, it’s a clear advantage for the Yankees, and once you start peeling back the numbers, it’s easy to see why.

Rodon takes the bump with a 12-7 record, 3.25 ERA, and 164 Ks across 146.2 innings. He’s been excellent at limiting walks and hard contact, with an excellent 1.06 WHIP and only 21 home runs allowed. He’s not slowing down as his recent form is just as strong — in his last 2 outings, he’s gone a combined 12 innings, giving up only 2 runs while striking out 15. He’s locked in.

Baz, on the other hand, has struggled quite a bit. He’s 8-9 on the season with a 4.93 ERA and 1.33 WHIP. While he does have 140 strikeouts in 135 innings, which puts him in the upper tiers of the MLB, he’s been vulnerable to long balls with 21 allowed and has failed to pitch deep into games. On 3 August starts, Baz has posted a 7.31 ERA and allowed 14 earned runs in just 16 innings of work. His latest outing was a 6-0 loss to the A’s despite pitching 7 innings — one of his longer games on the season.

Odds and Betting Lines

The Yankees are listed as -144 favorites on the moneyline, with the Rays sitting as the underdogs at +118. The total is set at 8.5 runs, with the under priced at -114 and the over at -106. On the run line, New York -1.5 is available at +118, while Tampa Bay +1.5 is juiced at -143.

The bookmakers are obviously putting a premium on the current momentum. The Yankees are winning, hitting for power, and getting quality starting pitching, with the bullpen getting the job done. The Rays, though not completely out of it, haven’t found any consistency and are just 5-5 in their last 10. The Yankees are surging while the Rays are slumping, it’s as simple as that.

Analysis and Prediction

This matchup really comes down to 2 big things — starting pitching and power. The Yankees have both. The Rays have neither — at least not right now, and we’re not sure when they’ll get either back.

Carlos Rodon is in one of his best grooves of the season. He’s struck out 17 while walking just 2 in his last 2 starts, and New York has won 5 of his last 7 games. Opponents are hitting just .229 OBA off Rodon, and his strikeout rate is still among the best in the league as he’s 8th in overall strikeouts. He also matches up well with a Rays lineup that’s hit just .229 over its last 10 games and has been inconsistent at best. It’s looking like a very favorable matchup for him.

Meanwhile, Shane Baz can’t seem to put together 2 clean innings, let alone a full outing. He’s allowed 5 HRs this month and has a 1.50 WHIP in his last 3 starts. Against a Yankees team that leads the American League in slugging with a .446 SLG and home runs with 195, that’s a huge red flag.

And the Yankees’ bats are clicking as well. Aaron Judge is slashing .333/.447/.687 with 39 home runs and 91 RBI. Over the last 10 games, Ben Rice has stepped up too, batting .324 with a couple of homers on top. Cody Bellinger continues to be a steady force in the lineup as he’s added 22 home runs and 71 RBIs to the scoresheet.

The Rays don’t have that kind of thump. Junior Caminero and Jonathan Aranda are decent and have put up decent numbers, but the team ranks 16th in HRs and 14th in runs per game. They simply haven’t been able to match elite offenses, especially when their pitching falls flat, which it usually does.

That’s been the case lately, as Tampa Bay has been outscored by 7 runs over its last 10 games. Their ERA over that span is a dismal 4.66, and they’re giving up home runs at the wrong time. Now, combine that with a below-average bullpen, and it’s tough to make a strong case for them here.

Then you note that the Yankees are 7-4 against the Rays this season and are scoring over 5 runs per game in those matchups. Their last series against Tampa Bay was also played on the road — and New York won it convincingly.

This feels like another spot for the Yankees to roll and notch the win. With Rodon on the mound and their offense clicking, they have a huge edge over a slumping Baz and an inconsistent Rays club.

• Yankees vs Rays Prediction: Yankees 5, Rays 2
• Best Bet: Yankees moneyline at -144

At -144 on the moneyline, that feels like a steal. A lopsided matchup like this feels like it should be closer to -200, so we’ll take it. The value is undoubtedly on the side of the better pitcher, the hotter team, and the more powerful lineup.