Yankees vs Blue Jays Prediction, Betting Odds, and Best Picks for Monday’s AL East Showdown

The New York Yankees head north to face the Toronto Blue Jays tonight in what is probably going to be a crucial turning point in the AL East race. The first pitch is set for 7:07 p.m. ET at Rogers Centre, where the Jays have been unbeatable as of late. This marks the 1st game of a 3-game series, and Toronto is coming in with a red-hot 10-game home winning streak, which includes sweeping the Yankees once already and the Giants.

Sure, these 2 teams have squared off 4 times already this year, and the Blue Jays took every game, but New York, winners of 2 straight in Atlanta, are looking for revenge and a chance to close the 3-game gap in the division. Could this be their night to do it? The bookmakers sure think so.

Game Details and Current Odds

Toronto currently leads the AL East with a 58-41 record, while New York is just behind them at 55-44. The Yankees have gone just 25-25 on the road this season, which isn’t great, while Toronto has been a powerhouse at home, boasting a dominant 35-16 record.

As for the odds, the bookmakers have the Blue Jays opening as slight underdogs, with the Yankees listed as favorites at -120 on the moneyline and the Jays at -102. The run line has New York -1.5 at +139, while Toronto is +1.5 at -170, which means this could be a fairly close game. The total is set at 8 runs, with the over at -119 and the under at -102.

Carlos Rodon will start on the bump for the Yankees. The lefty is putting together one of his most consistent seasons, going 10-6 with a 3.08 ERA and a 1.00 WHIP across 119.2 innings. He’s also punched out 135 batters while limiting home runs to just 15. Halfway through the season, he’s showing he’s ready to carry this team into the playoffs.

Toronto counters with Kevin Gausman, who’s been solid but less dominant than expected. He’s just 6-7 with a 4.19 ERA and 1.16 WHIP. Gausman has surrendered 14 home runs in just over 109 innings, and that could be trouble against a Yankees lineup that leads the league in power.

Yankees vs Blue Jays Analysis

On paper, these teams are fairly even. Over the last 10 games, both are 7-3. But their paths to those wins have looked a bit different. 

Toronto’s bats are hitting .284 AVG over that stretch, and their pitching has been fairly strong with a 3.21 ERA. New York, meanwhile, is batting .273 in the last 10 but has posted a shakier 4.40 ERA.

Toronto relies heavily on contact and getting runners on base. They rank 1st in team batting average with a .261 and 2nd in OBP with a .332. Of course, they don’t hit many home runs with just 105 this season, which is good for 18th in the league, but they grind out runs with quality at-bats. Bo Bichette has been scorching lately, going 15-for-37 with 7 doubles in the last 10 games alone. On top of that, George Springer continues to contribute with 17 dingers and 54 RBIs.

But the biggest story in this one is Aaron Judge, who’s clearly in full MVP form. He leads the Yankees with 36 home runs, a .352 AVG, and 82 RBIs — all of which are team highs. His slash line of .352/.458/.725 is simply monstrous. Cody Bellinger has also been smoking hot, batting .366 with 4 home runs in his last 10 games. If Gausman isn’t sharp, this game could get out of hand early, as the Yankees will capitalize on any mistakes.

The Yankees are more power-driven. They lead MLB in home runs at 1.6 per game, rank just 3rd in runs per game at 5.3, and 5th in strikeouts. Their pitching is middle of the pack with a 3.90 ERA, but their OBA is .225 — second-best in the league. Rodon’s presence on the mound gives them a solid chance to set the tone early in this showdown.

Toronto’s 10-game home streak is undoubtedly impressive, and they’ve done it against some solid teams as well. They’ve been great at limiting runs lately, but Rodon presents a different challenge. If Toronto doesn’t score early, they might struggle to keep up.

Prediction and Best Bet

This one should be tight early, but the Yankees have a couple of key advantages over the Jays — the better starter in Carlos Rodon, even if it’s not by too much, the hottest hitter in Aaron Judge, and the league’s top home run rate. Toronto’s home dominance can’t be ignored, either, but Rodon has the kind of stuff to neutralize their contact-heavy approach if he can be on top of his game tonight.

• Yankees vs Blue Jays Prediction: Yankees 5, Blue Jays 3
• Best Bet: Take the New York Yankees moneyline at -120

Rodon’s consistency and the power bats in the lineup are too much to pass up, and we’re willing to take that chance even though the Jays swept the Yankees earlier in the season. If you’re looking for a little extra value on top of that bet, Aaron Judge to hit a home run at +180 is also worth a look, given Gausman’s home run struggles.

We’re heading to the sportsbooks expecting New York to snap the Blue Jays’ home streak and make a statement in the division race. Not only will this be a solid matchup tonight, but the series overall is going to be explosive.