We are back with another baseball play for you guys! We have been on a nice run this postseason, up over 4 units through the first 8 days and looking to add a few more tonight!
We have some crucial games tonight that could see the Phillies and Dodgers make an exit! While both American League games are in pivotal positions to take series leads. This could be the last night we get 4 games of baseball so let’s enjoy it!
Looking at these two starters it is a no brainer to me to back Seth Lugo in this spot. Over his L7 games, since August 30th, Lugo has been on fire. He has pitched 34.2 innings with a 9.1 K/9, 26.3% K rating, 3.8% Walk rating, .213 batting average against, 0.92 WHIP and .242 on-base percentage.
In 6 of those 7 starters Lugo allowed less than 2 earned runs, while stranding 82.2% of base runners. Lugo recently faced this Yankee lineup and shut them down in 7 innings with 0 runs!
His counterpart tonight, Schmidt, has not been in such great form. Over his last 3 starts he has allowed 3, 3, and 4 runs, to the Pirates, Orioles, and Mariners. All 3 of those teams are worse offensively than the Royals, which could spell trouble.
Schmidt, over those 3 starts, went 14.1 innings with a 5.0 BB/9 rating, .245 batting average allowed, 1.47 WHIP, .333 BABIP, and a 32.4% hard ball hit rate. I see Clarke giving up 5+ hits with at least 2-3 runs. If Royals get on base they will look to advance and put pressure on Schmidt.
The Royals are back home in a huge playoff game, which should be a wild environment! They were much better at home this season going 45-36 and their offense has a chance to thrive tonight!
Six of these Royals have a .333 average or better against Schmidt, and while they all may not be starting tonight that shows the depth this lineup can bring. One player who stood out at home this season was Bobby Witt Jr.
Witt averaged .382 at home vs .284 on the road and while he doesn’t have success facing Schmidt, he has been locked in and I think he finds Schmidt here. The chances Schmidt walks Witt are very high which would not be wise. Witt will attempt to steal and I trust hitters like Michael Massey to set the tone early.
My Best Bets:
Royals F5 ML (-105) MGM
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