Wild vs. Maple Leafs Huge Prediction, Odds, and The Best Bet

The Toronto Maple Leafs will host the Minnesota Wild at Scotiabank Arena tonight in a big clash between two major playoff contenders. Toronto, with their 30-18-2 record, enters tonight’s game as a -165 moneyline favorite, while Minnesota at 29-17-4 is listed as a +140 underdog. Despite the odds, this is shaping up to be an excellent game with lots on the line.

As with any big matchup, there are plenty of bets to be made. However, before you load up that bet slip, here’s everything you need to know about this matchup, including our pick for who will come out on top.

Odds and Matchup Breakdown

Toronto has been one of the NHL’s hottest teams at home. They boast a strong 19-10-0 record at Scotiabank Arena this season. However, the Leafs come into this game with just a bit of inconsistency as of late. They have split their last 10 games at 5-5-0. Of course, this seems uncharacteristic of them.

Their offense has cooled slightly as they’re scoring 0.8 fewer goals per game than their season average in that 10-game span. 

Still, players like Mitch Marner and William Nylander are capable of driving offense at a moment’s notice as we’ve seen throughout the season. Marner leads the team with a solid 68 points which includes 53 assists, and remains their top playmaker for 5-on-5 play as well as the power play unit.

On the other hand, the Wild aren’t looking that great either as they are 4-6-0 in their last 10 games. They have struggled on the road against top-tier opponents despite having an overall road record of 18-5-3.

Minnesota relies heavily on Kirill Kaprizov, who leads the team with 52 points coming from 23 goals and 29 assists. However, Kaprizov is without some key support tonight, as the Wild are dealing with a few injuries to Marcus Johansson and Jonas Brodin, which could stretch their depth. They’ll need all the help they can get going up against the Maple Leafs.

The Wild do have an edge in goal with Filip Gustavsson. He has been steady all season with a dominant .913 save percentage and a 2.61 goals-against average which puts him in the top 10 of the NHL. Comparatively, Toronto’s Joseph Woll has a 17-9-0 record with a .907 SV% and has been solid but not quite as reliable.

Key Trends and Insights

This game feels like it’ll be closer than the odds lend themselves to. So, we’re looking at a few key areas to see if there’s an edge for tonight’s matchup.

• Head-to-Head. Minnesota edged out Toronto 2-1 in overtime in their previous meeting this season back in November.
• Scoring Averages. Toronto seems to have the offensive firepower as they have averaged 3.08 goals per game this season, compared to Minnesota’s 2.92.
• Defensive Battle. Both teams are allowing nearly identical goals per game — 2.88 for Toronto and 2.86 for Minnesota. Those are solid numbers to begin with so we might see a somewhat lower-scoring game.
• Injuries. Minnesota’s injury list could make things a bit more challenging for them. Notably, Gustavsson is day-to-day but is still expected to start. Toronto also has some absences, but their top 6 remain in the lineup.

This game feels like it’s going to be a defensive battle. Sure, both of these offenses are known to put up some points, but their defenses are just too good. On top of that, the goalies are nothing to scoff at, either.

Prediction and Best Bet

The Maple Leafs have the advantage coming into this matchup, largely due to their deeper offensive lineup and home-ice dominance.

While Minnesota’s Gustavsson gives the Wild a shot to keep the game close and they’ve already shown the Leafs that they can beat them, Toronto’s ability to control possession and generate chances should prove too much for Minnesota’s depleted roster to handle.

The Wild have also struggled against teams with high-end scoring threats. Containing both Marner and Nylander over a full 60 minutes of hockey will be a tall task. Toronto’s defense, led by Christopher Tanev and his +18 plus-minus, should be able to limit Minnesota’s secondary scoring options outside of Kaprizov.

• HelloRookie’s Prediction: Maple Leafs 4, Wild 2
• Best Bet: Take the Maple Leafs on the moneyline (-165)

If you’re looking for a value play, we like the over 5.5 total goals. Of course, we still expect this to be a relatively low-scoring game, but that total line is just too low to ignore as both teams have exceeded that mark in several recent games.

We think Toronto is set to rebound after a disappointing loss to Ottawa, while Minnesota’s inconsistencies make them a risky underdog in this spot. We’re going to back the Leafs for tonight as they look to even up the series at 1 game a piece.