Why Cal Raleigh and Junior Caminero Are the Two Most Dangerous Picks in the 2025 MLB Home Run Derby

Tonight’s 2025 Home Run Derby is shaping up to be a slugfest worth watching. There’s no shortage of star power or storylines, but if you’re trying to figure out the players with the best shot at walking away with the trophy, 2 names stand out from the rest — Cal Raleigh and Junior Caminero.

Yes, they’re coming from opposite ends of the odds board, and we can’t overlook that, but we have our reasons. Raleigh is the favorite and anyone can see why. Caminero is more of a long shot, but he’s not just filling out the bracket at the bottom end. He’s got the raw tools and momentum to go deep if things click.

Cal Raleigh Is Built for This Stage

Cal Raleigh isn’t your typical home run derby guy that you’d expect to take swings on a Monday night. He’s not the flashy outfielder with a chiseled frame or a young gun coming out of nowhere. He’s a catcher. Oh, and he’s not just any catcher — the best power-hitting catcher in baseball right now.

With 38 home runs, 82 RBIs, and a 1.011 OPS, Raleigh isn’t just leading the Home Run Derby field — he’s leading the entire league in raw power production. His numbers scream elite. And it’s not a one-month hot streak. He’s been doing this all season. Many are talking about Barry Bonds’ record being on the chopping block.

You don’t stumble into 38 homers by July unless you’re squaring up everything and know what you’re doing at the plate. And Raleigh isn’t just swinging for the fences and hoping for the best. He’s keeping his average at a respectable .259, which tells you his approach isn’t just reckless hacks — the swing-and-pray type — he’s disciplined and dangerous.

What really makes Raleigh particularly scary in a derby setting is his consistency. This isn’t a guy who hits 3+ bombs one week and disappears the next. He’s been steady, and that matters in this format. The Derby is all about finding a rhythm, maintaining stamina, and undoubtedly timing — all of which Raleigh has dialed in right now.

Let’s not forget the timing of this surge either. In the week leading up to the Derby, he’s hit 3 home runs in 6 games, showing that the bat isn’t cooling off, not even a little bit. That recent form matters a lot more than we usually admit. A player walking into this event with confidence and a dialed-in swing is the most dangerous kind as they know they have this in the bag.

At +295, he’s not the sexiest pick from a betting angle. But you’re betting on the power that shows up every night — not power that comes and goes from week to week if you’re trying to cash in on the guy most likely to go yard 25+ times in a round without blinking, Raleigh’s your bet.

This guy isn’t just the favorite for the bookmakers, he’s the standard right now.

Junior Caminero Has the Swing and the Fire

Junior Caminero isn’t leading the league in any major offensive category. He’s not the biggest name in the bracket either. But if you’ve actually watched him hit this year, seen his swings in slow motion, and even looked at the Statcast metrics, then you know he doesn’t need to be.

Caminero has 23 home runs, 60 RBIs, and a .790 OPS at the break. Those aren’t numbers that would typically put a player in the top Derby tier, but this isn’t about stats alone. This is about raw power, quick hands, and the ability to get scorching hot in a short span. On top of that, his spray chart shows him hitting yard bombs on every corner of the field. That type of power is rare.

The Rays’ 3B has one of the quickest, most explosive swings of any young hitter in the league. He generates easy lift and serious exit velocity that averages right around 91 mph but has pushed upwards of 116 mph. He doesn’t need a lot of effort to send the ball 420 feet, and that’s exactly what you want in a timed Derby format where bonus balls for distance count.

Now factor in how little time Caminero has had to settle into the league. This is still one of his first full years, and he’s already putting up 20+ home runs before the All-Star break. That’s rare and one of the biggest reasons he’s here right now. It’s a sign that he’s only just scratching the surface.

More importantly, Caminero fits the mold of Derby breakout stars from past years. Think about guys like Pete Alonso when he first showed up — not really the league leader in anything, but a player with a powerful swing and nothing to lose. Caminero’s entering this contest with no pressure, which is dangerous for everyone else. Cal Raleigh at least has expectations to live up to, not Caminero.

And the odds? +1200. That’s wild value for a guy who can absolutely put together a 22-home-run round if he finds a good rhythm. He doesn’t need to be the best player in the league. He just needs to be the hottest hitter for 3 rounds to snag the trophy.

Remember that the Derby isn’t a full season. Instead, it’s a 3-minute pressure cooker and Caminero has the pop and poise to handle it.

Why These Two Stand Out in a Crowded Field

Sure, James Wood has serious power and looks like the future of the sport. Oneil Cruz can crush a ball 450+ feet with ease and not think twice. Matt Olson, Byron Buxton, and Brent Rooker are all capable veterans who’ve hit plenty of bombs in their careers and might even gain some ground tonight.

But none of them check the same boxes Raleigh and Caminero do — at least not this year.

Raleigh has the numbers, the recent form, and the proven ability to stay consistent. He’s not a one-week wonder. He’s earned the favorite label, and it’s not even close. Nobody will be surprised if he takes the title.

Caminero brings the ceiling. He’s the one guy deeper in the field who can get hot and shock everyone. He’s also the kind of player who thrives when there’s less pressure. Everyone’s focused on Raleigh and Wood — and that’s a mistake we’re not going to make.

The biggest trap in Derby Talk is getting caught up in name value. Past All-Star nods and long careers don’t mean much in this format.  What matters is bat speed, endurance, and timing. If a player can excel in all 3, then they’re golden.

The Derby Format Favors Their Skillsets

Let’s not ignore how the format works here. It’s a timed competition, not a pitch-count contest. That changes everything and these players can capitalize on that.

Some hitters are great over the course of 9 innings but struggle to keep a quick pace for 3-4 minutes of non-stop hacks. Raleigh doesn’t have that issue. He has a compact, controlled swing that stays level no matter how many pitches he sees. He’s also built like a tank — ideal for this kind of slugfest. He might not fit the mold of who we think would be there, but he’s there and can handle it.

Caminero, on the other hand, benefits from the burst factor. He doesn’t need a perfect round. He just needs a 90-second stretch where he’s locked in and launching missiles to every side of the fence. His swing mechanics are perfectly suited to lift fastballs with high exit velo. If he catches fire in a round, even for a minute, he’s going to post a big number that will result in plenty of bonus time.

The Derby isn’t about who’s had the best career or even the best season. It’s about who can stay in rhythm and stay loose while pounding balls out of the park on a timer. Caminero and Raleigh check those boxes in two very different — but very real — ways.

Get Your Bets in On the 2025 Home Run Derby

Cal Raleigh is the indisputable anchor of the 2025 Home Run Derby. If he wins it all, no one will blink and we’ll all go about our lives. He’s been destroying baseballs since April and hasn’t let up once. You’re not betting on potential here — you’re betting on production.

Junior Caminero is the lightning bolt we’re keeping our eye on. He’s far from being the expected winner, but he’s the guy you don’t want to face if he starts seeing beach balls at the plate. He could post a 25-homer round out of nowhere and blow up the bracket.

Both guys are in different positions going into the Derby — one leading the pack and challenging records, the other lurking in the shadows and just having a decent season. But they’re both dangerous for the same reason: they can hit bombs when it matters most.

When Is the Home Run Derby and How to Watch it?

Don’t miss out on the action with tonight’s Home Run Derby. We have all of the details for the big event below.

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