White Sox vs Twins Prediction, Betting Odds, and Our Best Bet

The Chicago White Sox, sitting at 5-19 and 5th in the AL Central, are desperate to snap a brutal 3-game skid as they face the Minnesota Twins who are 9-15 and 4th in the AL Central. Today’s matchup at Target Field marks the 6th game of their regular-season series, with the Twins leading 4-1 after another convincing 6-3 win yesterday.

Both teams are scrapping at the bottom of the division, but the Twins have shown a little more life lately, winning 2 straight, while the White Sox are struggling to find any momentum early in the season.

Just because these teams appear to be racing for the bottom of the division, doesn’t mean there aren’t some really hot bets to be made.

Odds and What They’re Saying

The betting lines paint a clear picture for this one and they’re hard to argue.

The Twins are heavy favorites on the moneyline at -238, while the White Sox sit as the undeniable underdogs at +195. The run line has Minnesota at -1.5 with -112 odds, and the over/under is set at 8 runs, with both the over and under at -110. Based on what we’ve seen from these teams this year, this seems about right.

The Twins starter Chris Paddack likely plays a big role in these odds, given his 0-2 record but solid peripherals compared to White Sox pitcher Shane Smith. He’s not having a great year, but his potential is there.

The bookmakers also seem to be taking into consideration Minnesota’s recent dominance in this series and their better overall team stats, like a batting average of .216 and 85 runs scored compared to Chicago’s dismal .200 average and 75 runs. The total at 8 runs tells us we might see a bit of offense this afternoon, but if Paddack pulls himself together and Smith does what he normally does, the pitching matchup could keep things tighter than expected.

Analyzing the Matchup

Shane Smith for the White Sox has a 0-1 record with a respectable 2.82 ERA and a solid 0.84 WHIP over 22.1 innings. He’s struck out 15, walked 8, and given up just 1 dinger which goes to show he can keep games under control even if he’s not exactly elite.

But his lack of wins and the White Sox’s weak offense — scoring only 3.1 runs per game on average — put him in tough spots. No matter how great a pitcher is, if they don’t have the run support they’re not going to win the games.

On the other side of the field, Chris Paddack for the Twins is 0-2 with a 7.27 ERA and a 1.56 WHIP across 17.1 innings. He’s allowed 18 hits, 9 walks, and 4 home runs on top of that. This is a red flag against a White Sox team that has some pop with Andrew Benintendi and his 4 home runs and 9 RBI. However, Paddack’s 15 Ks on the season show he can miss bats, and the Twins’s better lineup might give him the support Smith won’t get.

Offensively, the Twins have the clear edge. Byron Buxton is swinging a hot bat right now as he’s hitting .230 with 5 home runs and 12 RBI, and he’s also driven in 12 runs. Ty France adds a little consistency at the plate with a .241 batting average, a .337 OBP, and a .348 SLG.

The Twins as a team are averaging 3.5 runs per game and have a .348 OBP, which isn’t great overall, but it shows they can get on base and put a little pressure on pitchers. The White Sox, meanwhile, are leaning on Andrew Benintendi and Lenyn Sosa, who’s hitting .266 with a .293 OBP and .342 SLG. Andrew Vaughn has 10 RBI, but his .149 batting average is a concern that they’ll need to figure out. Chicago’s 17 home runs as a team shows that they have some power, but their .303 OBP and 155 hits lag behind Minnesota’s 170 hits and .294 OBP.

Looking at recent form, the Twins are coming off wins in their last 2 games, including a 6-3 victory over the White Sox yesterday. They’ve also beaten the White Sox in 4 of their 5 meetings this season, with scores like 6-1 and 4-2 showing their ability to control this matchup.

The White Sox are ice-cold. They’ve lost their last 3, and are currently 1-11 on the road this season. Their pitching staff has a 4.35 ERA, which is not the worst in the league, but close. At the very least, it’s worse than the Twins’ 3.89, and they’ve allowed 4.5 runs per game compared to Minnesota’s 4.2. 

Prediction and Our Top Pick

This game comes down to the Twins’s better offense and the White Sox’s inability to string together runs.

Shane Smith might keep things close in the first 5 innings with his 2.82 ERA, but the White Sox’s bats are too inconsistent to back him up. Chris Paddack has been quite shaky, but the Twins’s lineup, led by Buxton and France, should get to Smith eventually, if not their bullpen.

The White Sox have some power with Benintendi, but their overall offense is anemic. They’re averaging just 3.1 runs per game which simply is not enough to get the wins. They’ve also been outscored 11-13 on average in this series, and their 1-11 record on the road is tough to ignore.

Paddack’s 7.27 ERA might give Chicago a chance to score a couple, but Minnesota’s bullpen has been solid with a 1.24 WHIP, and they should be able to close this out. The total at 8 runs feels about right, but we’re not touching that here as that’s a bit harder to nail down with SPs like these. Instead, we’re locking in the Twins to win outright. They’ve got a better overall team, more momentum, and a clear edge in this matchup.

• HelloRookie’s Prediction: Twins 5, White Sox 2
• Best Bet: Twins on the moneyline at -238

The Twins should pull away late as the White Sox’s offense stalls against Minnesota’s pitching. For our best bet, we’re taking the Twins on the moneyline at -238. The odds aren’t the juiciest and we’d generally stay away from these odds, but they reflect Minnesota’s dominance in this series and their better form right now. It just feels like easy money for a quick afternoon win.