White Sox vs Orioles Prediction, Odds, and Best Bet: Fade the Pitching, Back the Bats

2 of the absolute worst teams in baseball clash tonight when the White Sox who are 18-38 visit the Orioles who are 19-36 to open a three-game series at Camden Yards. Both clubs are stuck in last place in their divisions, and while postseason hopes are already fading and the trade deadline is on the horizon, this game still brings betting value — especially with two struggling pitching staffs and a hitter-friendly park.

Game Details and Pitching Matchup

The White Sox are coming off a big 9-4 win over the Mets that snapped a short skid and gave them a much-needed boost. A win over one of the best teams in baseball can go a long way in motivation and momentum.

They’ve won 2 of their last 3, including a 10-run outburst against the Rangers just a few days ago. While the overall season numbers remain ugly, the bats have shown signs of life lately but it’s the pitching that is absolutely dismal.

On the mound for Chicago will be Sean Burke, who enters at 3-5 with a terrible 4.33 ERA. At first glance, the numbers don’t stand out — but dig a little deeper into his stats and it’s clear Burke has turned a corner. In May alone he logged 27 innings with a sharp 2.67 ERA, giving up just 2 HRs and striking out 27. That stretch includes a 6-inning gem against Texas, where he allowed just a single run and walked none. His control has been much better this month, looking more like his old self, and he’s keeping hitters off balance.

Baltimore counters with Zach Eflin, who holds a 3-2 record but a bloated 5.40 ERA. Eflin, who is typically much better than this, has had trouble all season keeping runs off the board, and May has been particularly rough for him.

In his last 3 starts, he’s allowed 14 earned runs in 15.1 innings for an ERA north of 8. His command hasn’t really been the issue, however, as he’s walked just 3 this month — but hitters are making solid contact and punishing him with power. He’s also allowed 9 dingers this season despite only pitching 33.1 innings.

Both pitchers have given up the long ball, and with Camden Yards averaging 10+ runs per game this year, you can expect fireworks early and often.

Odds and Betting Angles

This game is tight on paper. Baltimore has a slightly better record, hence the odds favor them with -225 on the moneyline, but both teams are within a game of each other and sit in the basement of their divisions. The Orioles have lost just 2 of their last 5 games, and both were to the Cardinals at home. In those 5 games, they’ve scored less than 5 runs in all of them.

Offensively, the White Sox have been no juggernaut. They’re hitting just .221 as a team and rank near the bottom of the league in most offensive categories. However, they’ve managed to piece together a few high-scoring games as of late, with Miguel Vargas and Lenyn Sosa providing a bit of a spark. Vargas has 8 HRs and 26 RBIs, while Sosa leads the team in batting average at .280.

Baltimore counters with a little more pop in their bats. Cedric Mullins has 10 homers and 31 RBIs, and Ryan O’Hearn is having a quietly impressive season, batting .338 AVG with a .550 SLG. But even with those numbers, the Orioles’ offense has been wildly inconsistent and not able to get the job done. They’ve been unable to string together big innings, and their bullpen hasn’t done them any favors up to this point in the season.

On the mound, Baltimore has been an absolute dumpster fire. The Orioles rank dead last in team ERA at 5.49 and are giving up a league-worst .275 OBA. They’re also bottom 5 in strikeouts and WHIP, meaning teams are getting on base more often than not and rarely going down quietly. Despite this, Chicago’s pitching hasn’t been much better, but they at least have shown flashes of competency here and there.

Eflin’s recent struggles can’t be ignored. In May, he’s failed to get out of the 5th inning in 2 of his 3 starts and hasn’t pitched a clean outing all month. On the other side of the field, Burke is pitching with confidence and coming off arguably his best month of the season. We’re not saying he’s a Cy Young contender, but he’s having his moments.

Prediction and Best Pick

These teams are both rebuilding, both inconsistent, and both sitting at the bottom of the standings. It doesn’t get much worse than that. But not all last-place teams are equal, especially when one has a red-hot pitcher on the mound.

With Burke’s current form and Baltimore’s tendency to fall flat offensively, the edge definitely leans toward Chicago. The White Sox are starting to show a few signs of life offensively, and Burke seems to be on a roll. If he can go 6+ strong innings again and keep the ball in the park, Chicago has a real shot to steal this one despite the odds.

• HelloRookie’s Prediction: White Sox 6, Orioles 4
• Best Bet: White Sox moneyline at +185

We’re expecting a high-scoring game tonight, but we also expect Burke to outduel Eflin. The Orioles’ bullpen is unreliable, and their recent offensive slump makes them tough to back — even at home. Regardless of the odds, we’d take the Sox in this one, but we’re pretty happy with +185 all day long.