Week 8 College Football: 4 Best Bets for Saturday, October 18

Get all the info you need to make your Week 8 a winner! Our college football expert shares his 4 best bets for Saturday, October 18 in this piece. Enjoy the games, and best of luck with all of your wagers this weekend. Let’s get into the picks.

LSU Tigers vs Vanderbilt Commodores UNDER 48.5

Brian Kelly and the LSU Tigers sit at 5-1 on the season and have a #10 ranking while their eyes are still on the prize of a CFB Playoff berth. They were able to bounce back from their loss to then #13 Ole Miss before their bye week by handling South Carolina at home last week, 20-10. It took a 10-0 shutout over the last quarter and a half of the game for the Tigers to put away South Carolina, but the job was done, nonetheless. Nussmeier struggled a bit, throwing two interceptions, but was able to connect with Trey’Dez Green 8 times for 119 yards and a touchdown. The defense was solid once again and held LaNorris Sellers in check with just over 120 yards passing. It was a promising sign to see the defense hold them to 10 or less once again after allowing a season high 19 to Ole Miss.

Vanderbilt will be looking to do what LSU did in their bounce back spot after a bye. They lost to then #10 Alabama 2 weeks ago 30-14 and have used their bye week to lick their wounds and try to get ready for the 2^nd of 4 straight games against ranked opponents. In the loss to Bama Diego Pavia looked pedestrian and finished with just under 200 yards passing and 1 interception to go with his lone touchdown pass. He will need to be better against what could be an even tougher defense in LSU in this matchup. Defensively, they got shredded through the air by Ty Simpson who finished with 340 yards passing and was seemingly able to find open receivers on every possession. Shockingly, Nussmeier may be a step behind Simpson at this point in the season, but more will be told with how he performs against this Vandy defense.

When looking at the side, we do lean a bit to Vandy giving the points but feel more strongly about backing the under here on the total. LSU’s defense has been the one consistent thing for them this season and we believe this defense will travel well and keep Pavia under wraps much like Bama did. Nussmeier continues to show flashes of greatness followed by regression and with that inconsistency and a defense in Vandy that is going to be hungry to play better than they did against Simpson and Bama, we feel that is a recipe for a lower scoring total.

Key Trends:

• The total has gone UNDER in 12 of LSU’s last 16 games.
• The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Vanderbilt’s last 7 games against LSU.
• The total has gone UNDER in 4 of LSU’s last 5 games on the road.

Notre Dame -9 over USC

The 4-2 Fighting Irish will welcome the 5-1 USC Trojans to Notre Dame Stadium Saturday night for one of ND’s biggest rivalry games. The Irish have rattled off 4 straight wins after losing to Miami and Texas A&M in the 1^st two games of the season. The defense has been tough, allowing just 27 points over their last 3 games while the offense has continually produced as well. CJ Carr finally looks comfortable under center and has been guiding the Irish to an average of 44 points per game in their 4 wins. While they have looked good as of late, there still must be some concern as they head into this contest with USC who looks more like Miami and Texas A&M than the opponents that ND has decimated lately. CJ Carr will need to be consistent, and the defense can ill afford to take steps backwards as they did in those opening losses.

USC is fresh off an impressive win over Michigan last week. The 31-13 victory was seemingly never in doubt as the Trojans shredded the Michigan defense for almost 500 total yards. Jayden Maiava was efficient through the air as he finished with 265 yards and completed nearly 80% of his passes. King Miller was a beast on the ground and used his 18 carries to accumulate 158 yards and a touchdown. It was a strong statement win after the Trojans suffered their 1^st loss of the season just a week prior to Illinois. The difference from that loss to this win was the way the defense played. In the loss, they allowed Illinois to top 500 total yards while against Michigan, they held them to just over 300. The task will be tougher here on the road against a better offense, but the difference could be how the defense performs.

With 2 losses on the season and this being the final ranked opponent that Notre Dame faces, they are going to not only need to win, but to win convincingly. We are already seeing over 65% of public bets coming in on the Trojans with this large spread but the oddsmakers are not adjusting accordingly. This tells us they believe what we believe, and that is that this Irish team is going to be primed to make a statement Saturday night. We see this being easily a double-digit win for the Irish at home here who should be able to carve up the weak USC defense.

Key Trends:

• Notre Dame is 14-4 ATS in its last 18 games.
• Notre Dame is 10-4 ATS in its last 14 games at home.
• USC is 2-10 ATS in its last 12 games on the road.
• USC is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Notre Dame.

Georgia -7 over Ole Miss

In what is arguably the best matchup of the day on Saturday, the #6 Ole Miss Rebels will head to Georgia to take on the #9 Bulldogs in a battle of SEC superiority. Ole Miss is 6-0 on the season but almost lost a head scratcher last weekend at home against an inferior Washington State team. They trailed late into the 3^rd quarter before taking 10 points lead with just under 7 minutes to go and held on for a 24-21 win. It was an odd game with the Rebels putting up over 430 yards of total offense and converting on almost half of their 3^rd downs. However, the scoring was not as high as you would expect from an offense that was seemingly efficient all day.  The 3-point win marks the 4^th win by less than 1 touchdown for the Rebels this season.

Georgia was able to comeback from a 10-3 halftime deficit on the road at Auburn last week. They shutout the Tiger offense in the 2^nd half and put up 17 points with their offense to score a 20-10 victory. The run game for the Bulldogs was weak and finished with just 79 yards on the ground and the passing game did most of their damage in the 2^nd half on their way to over 200 yards passing. The defense was the difference, especially in the 2^nd half when they completely stifled Jackson Arnold and the Tiger offense. While the defense had held both Marshall and Austin Peay to under 10 points this season, this game was the best performance as it thrived against a much stronger program.

Georgia’s defense is playing at the highest level just as they are getting into the meat of SEC play. That does not bode well for an Ole Miss offense that is coming off a game where they struggled to put points on the board against a Washinton State defense that had allowed 59 points to both Washington and North Texas this season. We like the Bulldogs to not only win this game but make a statement at home and prove that they are the top “dogs” in the SEC.

Key Trends:

• Ole Miss is 2-6 ATS in its last 8 games played in week 8.
• Georgia is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing at home against Mississippi.

Tennessee Volunteers vs Alabama Crimson Tide OVER 58

In a battle of 1 loss teams, the #11 Tennessee Volunteers head to Tuscaloosa to take on the #6 ranked Alabama Crimson Tide. After their tough loss to Georgia earlier this year, the Vols have run off 3 straight wins. Albeit against some inferior opponents in UAB, Miss St, and Arkansas. The offense has continued to produce during that stretch and is averaging over 43 points per game, but the defense is the concern. They allowed a combined 89 points to those same opponents. Defense was the issue in their lone loss of the season when they gave up 44 points to Georgia. While the offense is explosive, they need to address their issues on the other side of the ball if they want to remain in contention for the playoff.

Bama is coming off a serious scare against Missouri last week. They found themselves tied 17-17 late in the 4^th quarter. Luckily, Ty Simpson and the offense was able to mount a couple of scoring drives while the defense held up and kept Missouri out of the endzone until the last 2 minutes of the game to hold onto a 24-21 victory. Bama struggled against the run in the win, allowing over 160 yards on the ground but came up big in big moments and held the Tigers to just 1-10 on 3^rd down. They are going to need to be stouter against the run this week as Tennessee is bringing in the 35^th best rushing attack in the country that is averaging 210 yards per game on the ground.

Like is the story with seemingly every Tennessee game this season, they are going to need to simply outscore their opponent to have a shot at winning the game due to their inept defense. We like Alabama if we are forced to choose a side, but we believe these offenses are each going to have their ways in this matchup. The Vols should be able to chew up yardage on the ground, and the Tide will use Ty Simpson to shred this weak Vol defense.

Key Trends:

• The total has gone OVER in 9 of Tennessee’s last 10 games.
• The total has gone OVER in 4 of Tennessee’s last 5 games on the road.
• The total has gone OVER in 4 of Tennessee’s last 5 games against an opponent in the SEC.