Vikings vs Bears Prediction, Betting Odds, and Best Bet for Monday Night Football

Monday Night Football is back, and the Minnesota Vikings kick off their season under the lights in a primetime NFC North showdown against the Chicago Bears. It’s actually a fresh start on both sides with J.J. McCarthy making his first NFL start for the Vikings, and the Bears ushering in a new era with Caleb Williams at quarterback and Ben Johnson at head coach.

To be honest, this is more than just a divisional game — it’s really a measuring stick. Minnesota is looking to stay on top, while Chicago is trying to flip the narrative after another last-place finish in the division. 

Soldier Field will be rocking tonight, but recent history leans heavily toward the visiting Vikings in this matchup.

Game Details — McCarthy Makes His Debut, Williams Leads Chicago’s New Era

Kickoff is set for 8:15 p.m. ET tonight, and the game will be nationally televised on ABC and ESPN, wrapping up Week 1 of the NFL season.

Minnesota has dominated this series, winning 7 of the last 8 matchups against the Bears, including a 30-12 rout last December. In fact, the Vikings scored 30 points in both matchups last year and racked up nearly 800 total yards combined. Of course, these are 2 fairly different teams this year, but let’s just say that the Vikings have the Bears’ number.

McCarthy steps into this one with a strong supporting cast, even though 2 of their top receivers are out. Jordan Addison is suspended, and Justin Jefferson isn’t fully healthy. With T.J. Hockenson, Aaron Jones Sr., and Jalen Nailor rounding out the skill group, Minnesota still has plenty of weapons for Kevin O’Connell’s aggressive offense.

Chicago will undoubtedly counter with optimism around Williams and a revamped offensive line. The defense showed some life last year, holding opponents to under 220 passing yards per game, and they’ll need to bring the pressure early if they want to disrupt McCarthy’s rhythm.

Betting Odds — Vikings Slight Road Favorites

The bookmakers have the latest betting odds showing Minnesota as a 1.5-point favorite at -112 on the road, with the Bears as +1.5 underdogs at -108. The moneyline slightly favors the Vikings at -122, while Chicago sits at +102 to win outright. The over/under is set at 43.5 points, with both sides juiced at -110.

This line has hovered close to basically a pick’em throughout the week, but after looking at the public money, it’s apparent that bettors have started leaning toward Minnesota as game day approaches. To us, that makes sense, considering how often the Vikings have had Chicago’s number.

Analysis — Vikings Built for This Spot, Bears Still Finding Their Way

The Bears might have a new look, but the numbers say they’re still far behind Minnesota.

Minnesota was 11-6 against the spread in 2024 and covered 4 of its final 5 regular-season games. They were also excellent on the road, where they went 6-2 away from home, which included a dramatic 30-27 overtime win in Chicago. Even without Addison running routes, McCarthy is walking into a system that was tailored to support young QBs. This is the same offense that had Sam Darnold generating MVP talk late last season as he put up 4,300+ yards. 

Okay, MVP talk might have been a stretch, but the point is, the Vikings have a decent system.

Meanwhile, the Bears are in full transition. The team brought in new coordinators on both sides of the ball, which often leads to early miscommunication, as shown by the Lions yesterday against the Packers, and this is especially true against veteran teams. While Williams brings plenty of upside to the Bears, he’s also working behind a still-gelling offensive line and facing a defense that blitzed more than any team in the NFL last year at 29%.

Chicago’s defense had issues all last season, giving up explosive plays through the air and on the ground. They ranked second-worst in the NFL in yards per completion with 12.2 and were dead last in first-quarter scoring defense, allowing scores on 41.7% of opponent drives. Those are some figures they’re going to have to have answers for if they want to be competitive in the NFC North.

But really, that’s a problem when facing a Minnesota offense that ranked 3rd in first-quarter scoring and excels at jumping out early. If the Vikings get an early lead, they’ll be able to control the pace with their run game and force Williams into obvious passing situations where he’s uncomfortable. That’s a recipe for mistakes.

We can’t overlook the fact that the Bears have improved, particularly with the additions of Grady Jarrett and Dayo Odeyingbo on the defensive line, but it’s hard to trust them out of the gate. The offensive line still needs to prove it can hold up against top-tier pass rushes, and the offense as a whole needs time to gel and figure things out.

Minnesota, on the other hand, brings back continuity on both sides of the ball and has enough talent to make McCarthy’s debut a success. Justin Jefferson might not be 100%, but even at 80%, he’s a game-changer. At this time, however, we’re not sure if he’s starting. Hockenson will be a major factor over the middle, especially in the red zone, where the Vikings ranked 3rd in pass rate in neutral game scripts last year.

On top of all of that, the data supports Minnesota as the Vikings went 10-0 last season when opponents racked up 60+ penalty yards and were 14-1 when allowing under 5 yards per carry. That kind of discipline often wins games early in the season, as discipline tends to get the best of some teams.

Final Prediction and Best Bet

This line is close because both teams are debuting rookie QBs, and we’re not blaming the bookmakers for that. However, the edge clearly lies with Minnesota, and that’s where the betting value is. The Vikings have a more complete roster, more continuity, and the ability to strike quickly on offense. McCarthy might not be perfect, after all, it’s his debut, but he doesn’t have to be. He just needs to stay within himself and let the talent around him do the work.

The Bears could be frisky in the second half of the season, but right now, they’re still figuring things out. A young QB, new coach, and new systems don’t usually click immediately — especially not against a division opponent that’s had your number for years.

• Vikings vs Bears Prediction: Vikings 27, Bears 20
• Best Bet: Vikings -1.5 at -112

This will probably be a close game, but at a 1.5 point spread, we’re going to take the value with that bet. The moneyline is only 0.5 points safer, and you get a little more bang for your buck for the spread.