UFC Vancouver: 2 Underdog DFS Slips and Our Best Bet for October 18

The UFC returns to Canada this weekend following the incredible finish from Charles Oliveira in Brazil. Back in North America, headlined by a massive matchup as Brendan Allen looks to derail Reinier de Ridder’s title hopes.

We have fireworks all over this card due to aging veterans, and we also get one of the most anticipated women’s fights of the 2025 season between Manon Fiorot and Jasmine Jasudavisious on the main card. Buckle up, this should be a good one!

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Main Event Breakdown: Reiner De Ridder vs Brendan Allen

This is a matchup between two fighters who are both excellent grapplers but prefer to use their ground games differently. De Ridder’s advantage lies in control and physical strength.

When he gets on top, he keeps opponents pinned and limits damage. Since coming over to the UFC, he has also shown a willingness to exchange on the feet, which has helped set up his grappling entries.

Allen, on the other hand, is more dynamic in his grappling and looks to use scrambles and transitions to open submission chances or get in a position to control while landing strikes.

Stat-wise, De Ridder lands just under three significant strikes per minute and absorbs fewer than two and a half while also holding a 66% takedown defense. His defense and awareness inside grappling exchanges have stood out all year, and I expect him to control where this fight takes place.

Allen throws more strikes per minute, but he has the worse defense, and I believe he has the worse cardio of the two. Allen should be the easier of the two to take down and I can see him getting finished here.

Best Bet: De Ridder Moneyline + Over 1.5 Rounds (+110, DraftKings)

DFS / Underdog Slip Plays (3x Payout Combos)

Slip #1:

• Drew Dober – Higher than 5 significant strikes vs. Kyle Prepolec

• Manon Fiorot – Higher than 5 significant strikes vs. Jasmine Jasudavicius

Dober’s aggressive style and Prepolec’s propensity to press forward almost guarantees volume. IF this fight can make it to the middle of the 2nd or 3rd round, both fighters should go over there total as I expect a back-and-forth war where neither can put the other out.

Dober would be smart here if he avoided the early exchanges and played more of an outside patience approach. His chin has faded over the years, and he should know this, he could bring wrestling with ground and pound strikes out just take it on the feet.

Prepolec’s last 3 opponents have had 54, 51, and 90 significant strikes. Dober just went 3 rounds with Jean Silva and landed 59, and he has hit this in previous fights. If he was smart, he would avoid the wars and get a decision win with volume, for us and for his chin/brain.

Fiorot is one of the most consistent high-output strikers in the division, and if she can keep Jasudavicius from taking her down, I expect high volume from both sides. We just saw Fiorot and Shevchenko trade 71 to 72 and her prior fight vs Blanchfield, another wrestler, she avoided the takedowns and let off 172 significant strikes.

I think Fiorot slows down Jasmine’s hot streak, keeps the takedowns to a minimum and out volumes her for 3 rounds. In Jasmin’s 2 losses she allowed 103 and 96, let that sink in.

Slip #2:

• Matt Frevola – Higher than 5 significant strikes vs. Kyle Nelson

• Aiemann Zahabi – Higher than 5 significant strikes vs. Marlon Vera

Frevola’s pace is tailor-made for strike props. He’s become a forward-marching brawler who stays active, even if it’s to wrestle and search for ground and pound. This is risky as this fight could end violently quickly. But with two fighters with power and an ability to find a quick finish, I think they find a finish in the later 2nd or 3rd round, rather than early.

Nelson can take a punch, and I expect Frevola to avoid Nelson’s power by utilizing his wrestling. If this thing goes to the 3rd round both fighters could be in the 40’s.

As for Zahabi, even if he doesn’t win this fight against a veteran like Vera, I believe this fight will see the judges’ score cards. Zahabi has put up 99, 109, and 75 in his last three fights, while Vera allowed 230, 113, and 128 in 3 of his last 4 fights.

If this fight gets any distance, I expect volume from both sides as they work to find a late finish.