UFC Fight Night Brazil Preview: Top DFS Picks for October 11

Welcome back, UFC fans! If you read our underdog article last week, you profited as we cashed one of our two plays! The UFC is back in Brazil this weekend, and fight fans know the crowd in Rio de Janeiro will be electric. The main event features hometown favorite Charles Oliveira coming off a vicious KO loss to Ilia Topuria to face new opponent Mateusz Gamrot.

After suffering a devastating first-round knockout loss, Oliveira returns quickly as perhaps his last chance to headline a card in Brazil. With an opponent change, Gamrot steps in eager to spoil that comeback and position himself for a title run.

For DFS players, this card is loaded with potential finishes and high-value plays. Let’s break down the headliner and then look at two Underdog slips I like for this weekend.

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Main Event Breakdown: Charles Oliveira vs Mateusz Gamrot

This matchup is fascinating both stylistically and emotionally. We have made a lot of money in Oliveira fights, but this one is tricky! Oliveira should have the edge not only fighting in front of his home fans but does bring the higher finishing upside in this fight.

Historically, he’s been one of the most aggressive finishers in the UFC, sitting at the top of the UFC in finishes, 46 professional fights with 31 wins and 9 losses by finishes, only 6 fights have gone to a decision, it is kill or be killed for Charles. What I like about his style in this matchup is he can bring vicious knees and elite jiu-jitsu with sneaky power on the feet. However, that same aggression can backfire if he gets clipped early or pushed into deep water and gasses out.

Gamrot brings a completely different approach than who Charles was training to fight. Gamrot can grapple, wrestle, and he’s a grinder with excellent cardio. Gamrot has 29 professional fights, only 3 losses and he is one of the only fighters to have beaten Arman Tsarukyan, a feat Oliveira failed to do.

If Oliveira can make this an ugly fight quick, I believe he has the skills to damage Gamrot. When Oliveira gets taken down, because he will, I trust him in the earlier rounds to either get back up, or scramble to get into a favorable position. With the judges and crowd behind him, I have to back Oliveria to either out dog Gamrot to a split decision or find a slick submission Gamrot wasn’t looking for.

2-Man Value Slip (2.64x Payout)

Stewart Nicoll – Over 2.5 Takedowns

Nicoll has a clear wrestling edge in his matchup. His opponent tends to get backed up easily and in Rocha’s two fights he has been taken down 5 and 2 times by his opponents. Prior to Nicolls submission loss to Aguilar, he had completed 1 takedown.

If this fight extends, Nicoll could string together 3 to 4 takedowns in this matchup. This should be a good back and forth battle, I expect Nicoll to find a victory, but not before he gets his takedowns.

Clayton Carpenter – Higher than 14.99 Fight Time

Carpenter and Fili both average around 9-10 minutes fight time, which equates to around 2 rounds. Why I like this fight to go the distance is we have two very aggressive fighters who can finish, but who I believe are very durable.

When we have two fighters who have shown to be durable and have finishing instincts, they tend to cancel each other out and drag out a dog fight. I expect a dog fight here, perhaps Carpenter loses round 1 but gains some steam round 2 and 3 and heads to a decision victory. I don’t see a finish here.

3-Man Finish Slip (3.79x Payout)

Beatriz Mesquita – Higher than 0.5 Finishes

Mesquita is an elite jiu-jitsu practitioner transitioning to MMA, we have yet to see her in the UFC and this is a gamble for sure, but I believe she shows out in her debut. She is 5-0 with 4 wins coming by finish.

Her submission skills look to be something special, and she can pull out a KO win when needed. Alekseeva has yet to be finished and I am a big proponent in taking girl fights to go the distance, but I think Mequita can get this one finished.

Vitor Petrino – Higher than 0.5 Finishes

Petrino is one of Brazil’s most explosive prospects and he has been boom or bust in his UFC career. He moves up to heavyweight where he brings elite athleticism to the division.

Will his power and athleticism transition to a heavier weight class? We will soon find out, and against Petterson, I think he will find a KO shot before this thing goes to the judges.

Joel Alvarez – Higher than 0.5 Finishes

Alvarez has an incredibly dangerous submission game and a knack for catching opponents in transitions. Lately he has been finding KO shots, and now gets a fighter who, in my opinion, should have retired after his last fight. Alvarez moves to welterweight to take on Vicente Luque and when I saw this matchup I said a prayer for Luque.

I worry for him here, I believe Alvarez even moving weight classes will still be dangerous and a round 1 finish is likely coming. We have see his line move from -400 at open to -650 and it should be -1000. I respect Luque and perhaps he can pull one last trick out of his bag, but I just think his fighting age and the damage is too much here against a very dangerous and high IQ fighter.