UFC 309 Betting Preview: Odds, Best Bets, and Top Parlay for Saturday, November 16

UFC 309 is here, Stipe Miocic, the greatest heavyweight of all time, returns to the octagon to face champion Jon Jones. Charles Do Bronx returns to face Michael Chandler and legend Paul Craig looks to stop an up-and-coming Bo Nickal.

We are for sure to get fireworks, as the UFC returns to Madison Square Garden. UFC PPVs rarely fall short of giving us some impactful upsets and exciting knockouts and we have 1 more night of sleep until we get there!

McGhee Will Find Victory

Marcus McGhee exploded onto the UFC scene and has yet to see past the 3:30 mark of the 2nd round. He has 3 finishes, 1 sub and 2 by KO/TKO, and is currently 9-1 in his career. This fight takes place in 2 different places, McGhee’s world, or Jonathan Martinez’s world.

McGhee must get this fight into the clinch, make it dirty, press Martinez against the cage and rain down power shots. If McGhee allows this to stay on the outside and gives Martinez space, I do think Martinez can do damage with leg kicks and striking from a distance. Martinez is the much more experienced, and polished fighter, who has beaten some very good fighters.

This is a gamble, especially at the inflated line of -135, eventually an experienced fighter will stop these young guys and give them at least 1 step-back performance, I just don’t see it here. If McGhee follows his normal gameplan, his power will be too much, he has 9 wins, 8 by TKO, 1 by submission. A play on the double-chance KO/Decision is a good look in this one as well.

Parlay of the Night

Charles Oliveira, in this rematch with Michael Chandler is going to win again. I would be shocked if Chandler wins this. He has been out of the octagon for 2 years, while Charles is looking for a win after a brutal split decision loss to one of the top fighters, Arman Tsarukyan.

Charles has the advantage everywhere in this fight. Even if Chandler is more calculated in this fight, Charles will surely take his back again. Chandler has always been a sloppy fighter, and has lost 3 of his last 4 fights, while not staying active. Give me Charles in a possible finish round 2.

Karine Silva is one of my favorite female fighters and I do not wager on the females often. When I do, I am very confident they will win. Silva is dangerous on the feet, and even more so on the ground.

With 18 overall wins, 8 by KO, 9 by submission and had 4 straight submissions before her last fight, she is the more dangerous fighter. I respect Viviane and she is a decision machine, but she has a high probability of getting finished here or a unanimous loss.

Underdog for the Win

I am going to preface this by saying, a lot of fights on this card could go either way that are stylistically different. UFC is one of those sports where you can pre-bet a side thinking it will go one direction and be waiting LIVE to jump on the other side depending on how the fight begins to play out.

This is a perfect fight here, as well as the McGhee one earlier. If McGhee cannot close the distance and engage his power shots onto Martinez, Martinez could eke out a decision win. I love Johnata Diniz’s ability on the feet, he is powerful, and he can move on his big frame.

Diniz is currently a +125 dog to Marcin Tybura, and I get it. If Tybura gets it on the ground, Diniz has not shown the ability in his career to get back up and Tybura could end things quickly, if not drag it out for 3 rounds. I am trusting Diniz athleticism, size, and sheer power to catch Tybura coming in and finishing him, if not taking this to a decision and winning by damage.

Best Bets:

• Top Favorite: Marcus McGhee ML (-135)
• Top Parlay: Charles Oliviera ML + Karine Silva ML (-110)
• Top Underdog: Jhonata Diniz ML (+125)