Are you jacked for UFC 305? Our staff here at Hello Rookie certainly is! Our fight game insider shares his best bets for this iconic event on Saturday, August 17 below. Good luck, and enjoy the action!
Izzy’s last fight, a decision loss to Sean Strickland, was one in which he looked uninterested. His striking was minimal and he seemingly was never able to get past Strickland’s jab. Now he has had almost an entire year to refocus and gear up for this fight against Du Plessis.
Dricus took Strickland to a decision victory but it was certainly not clear cut. He was able to get 6 takedowns on his 11 attempts and picked up over 2 minutes of control time. Strickland outstruck him 183 to 140 but the judges sided with the challenger. Now, as champion, his 1st defense is coming against one of the greatest of all time.
The biggest issue Du Plessis is going to face is two-fold. Izzy has a superior advantage in the striking department and he also carries a 78% takedown defense percentage. If Izzy can continue to stuff the takedown attempts and keep this on the feet, we expect him to piece up Du Plessis and win back the title.
France had a strong 2021 and worked into 2022 where he earned a title shot against Brandon Moreno. There, he was finished late in the 3rd round and then took almost a year off before facing 16-1 Amir Albazi.
In that most recent fight, he lost via split decision because of the control time that Amir was able to earn. France out-struck him 133-64 but it was the control that was the difference. In this matchup, Erceg does not pose nearly the same takedown threat that Amir did.
We believe France will be more comfortable in this fight where he can rely on his stand-up and out-strike Erceg. A sprinkle on decision being the method could be worth the value here as well.
Rozenstruik has been KO’d just twice in his 19-fight career. Those 2 KOs came from Frances Ngannou and Alexander Volkov, two of the best heavyweights of all time. Now he faces another KO artist in Tai Tuivasa.
A guy who always has the crowd behind him and typically throws caution to the wind. It has been a rough last 4 fights for Tai, as he has been KO’d twice and submitted twice.
While we would love to see Tai win and do a showy celebration once again, we do not think this matchup is a good one for him and Rozenstruik should be able to put him away. Taking 1st round KO could be worth a shot here, if Tai does enter ferociously like he can be susceptible to do, that could spell an early end.
Mateusz Gamrot (-340)
Carlos Prates (-360)
Valter Walker (+110)
Ricardo Ramos (+125)
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