Two Kentucky Derby Longshots With a Real Case to Upset on Saturday: Pavlovian and So Happy

The favorites going into Saturday’s Kentucky Derby are real. Renegade, Commandment, and Further Ado are legitimately dangerous horses with Grade 1 wins and top trainers. But two horses further down the board — Pavlovian at 30-1 and So Happy at 15-1 — each carry a specific, research-backed case for why they could outperform their morning line on the first Saturday in May.

Pavlovian: Doug O’Neill’s Best Chance at History

Trainer Doug O’Neill has won the Kentucky Derby twice — I’ll Have Another in 2012 and Nyquist in 2016 — and both victories came with horses owned by Reddam Racing. Pavlovian is owned by Reddam Racing. Only three owners in Derby history have won the race at least three times, and all of them reached that milestone paired with the same trainer. That historical thread running through the O’Neill-Reddam partnership is relevant context when evaluating a 30-1 horse.

Pavlovian is a gray colt by Pavel out of the Bellamy Road mare Mandy’s Grace, bred by Reddam Racing. He enters the Derby as the most experienced horse in the field, with 10 career starts across five tracks. His record — two wins, four second-place finishes, and one third — does not immediately impress on paper, but his two most recent races told a different story. He won the Sunland Park Derby with a gutsy nose victory over heavily favored Express Kid, then ran second in the Louisiana Derby at Fair Grounds, losing by a head to Emerging Market after setting the pace for most of the mile-and-three-sixteenths trip. O’Neill has said the horse has always had the physical tools but needed mental maturity, and that those last two races showed he has arrived.

Jockey Edwin Maldonado, who has been aboard for Pavlovian’s recent form turnaround, makes his first Kentucky Derby start on Saturday. O’Neill has been direct in saying he expects his horse to be a longshot but believes he has a genuine puncher’s chance. The Louisiana Derby, consistently regarded as one of the closest comps to the Kentucky Derby in terms of track and distance, produced a race where Pavlovian nearly went gate-to-wire — a performance that shows he can handle pace pressure at classic distances. With 30-1 available, the value is there for bettors willing to back a proven trainer-owner combination in a race where double-digit winners have been common in recent years.

So Happy: From a $12,000 Weanling to the Santa Anita Derby

So Happy’s backstory is one of the more compelling in the 2026 Derby field. He was purchased for just $12,000 as a weanling at Keeneland November — a price that reflects how little his connections expected from him at that stage. He later sold for $20,000 as a yearling at Fasig-Tipton Kentucky October. Trainer Mark Glatt then signed the $150,000 ticket for him at OBS March as a 2-year-old after he worked a furlong in 10 flat, and the investment has paid off considerably.

So Happy enters the Derby as the leading California-based contender after winning the Grade 1 Santa Anita Derby by two and three-quarter lengths, his third win from four career starts. He turned the tables on Potente — the horse who had beaten him in the San Felipe Stakes — by engaging in mid-stretch and pulling clear impressively. The Santa Anita Derby win was trainer Mark Glatt’s first in that race and carried emotional weight beyond the result: Glatt had lost his wife Dena to heart failure two months earlier. Hall of Fame jockey Mike Smith, who has won the Kentucky Derby twice — most recently aboard 2018 Triple Crown winner Justify — will be in the irons on Saturday.

The legitimate skepticism around So Happy concerns his sire, Runhappy, who was the 2015 champion sprinter. Distance questions follow speed horses, and the Kentucky Derby goes a mile and a quarter. But So Happy’s win in the Santa Anita Derby came at a mile and an eighth, and he improved significantly when stretched out compared to his San Felipe effort. His dam, So Cunning, is by Blame — a sire with stamina in his bloodline — and two other Runhappy offspring have won Grade 1 races at classic distances. At 15-1 with Mike Smith aboard, So Happy represents one of the more credible longshot cases in the race.

Building Your Derby Ticket

The top of the market is legitimate this year. Commandment, trained by Brad Cox and ridden by Luis Saez, won the Florida Derby and enters as a 6-1 morning-line favorite. Further Ado, another Cox trainee with John Velazquez, won the Blue Grass and is listed at 6-1 as well. Renegade took the Arkansas Derby for Todd Pletcher and Irad Ortiz Jr. and is the 4-1 morning-line choice.

But Kentucky Derby history rewards bettors who look past the short-priced favorites. Since 2000, twelve horses have won at odds of 10-1 or better, and four have won at 50-1 or better. The last post-time favorite to win was Justify in 2018. That context does not guarantee a longshot wins Saturday — it means the race rewards thoughtful handicapping and the willingness to include live outsiders in exotic wager construction. Pavlovian and So Happy are both worth considering in exactas, trifectas, and superfectas as horses who can run better than their odds suggest. Check the latest Derby futures odds and the full field breakdown at live sports odds before you build your ticket Saturday.