Toronto Maple Leafs vs Florida Panthers Prediction, Odds, and Best Bet for Game 6

The Toronto Maple Leafs are staring down elimination as they visit the Florida Panthers in what is going to be a wild Game 6 of the Eastern Conference Second Round.

Florida has taken control of the series with a 3-2 lead after absolutely destroying Toronto 6-1 in Game 5. With a chance to close things out in front of their fans on home ice, the Panthers are in a great spot to punch their ticket to the conference final to take on the Carolina Hurricanes.

But the Leafs still have enough talent to turn the series around — if, and only if, they can find their game in time. There are at least 60 minutes left in this series.

Game Details and Betting Odds

The puck drops at 7:00 PM ET tonight with national coverage on all of the big networks including TNT, truTV, and Max. So, there’s no reason you should miss out on this one. There’s still time to get some great tickets as well — if you can afford them.

The Panthers come in as heavy -230 favorites on the moneyline while the Leafs are priced at +190 to keep their season alive.

Florida is also -1.5 at +114 on the puck line, while Toronto is +1.5 at -135. The total is set at 5.5 goals, with the over slightly favored at -115 and the under at -105. It seems the bookmakers are thinking this will be a low scoring game.

Leafs Reeling After Game 5 Meltdown

After getting back into the series by evening it was up at 2 a piece with a gutsy Game 4 win, Toronto had all the momentum heading into Game 5, but that momentum didn’t last long. The Leafs got steamrolled on their home ice. They gave up 6 goals while only managing one themselves.

It was a beatdown from the opening faceoff, as Florida outworked and outclassed Toronto in every area and Toronto had no answers for anything. It was not a good night to be a Leafs fan.

Despite both teams firing off 32 shots, the Panthers were far more clinical with their precision. They scored 3 goals in the second period alone, with Jesper Boqvist, Dmitry Kulikov, and Niko Mikkola all finding the back of the net. Boqvist had a goal and an assist and was named the game’s 2nd star, while Sergei Bobrovsky stopped 31 of 32 shots and earned the top star honors. The Panthers are hungry to make it back to the Stanley Cup and it showed.

Toronto’s power play went 0-for-4 and continues to be an issue they must figure out if they want to make it any further in the playoffs. They’ve struggled to generate quality looks, and Florida’s PK unit has been rock-solid all series. Defensively, the Leafs looked disorganized and a bit sloppy as they committed 21 giveaways compared to Florida’s 10. They blocked only 9 shots, while the Panthers blocked a whopping 24.

Mitch Marner leads the Leafs in scoring this season with 102 points, including 75 assists. He has 12 points in the postseason alone. William Nylander leads in goals with 45, but neither has consistently found the net in this series. Toronto has also allowed the most goals among the remaining playoff teams, with 33 surrendered over 11 games. That’s a huge red flag heading into a must-win road game as well as a Game 7 if they force it.

Florida Looks Locked In

The Panthers are doing everything right. They’ve won 2 straight, including a dominant performance in Game 5 where their blue line scored 3 times and their physical style wore down Toronto over 60 minutes.

Sam Reinhart continues to be a key force, with 81 points this season and 2 assists in Game 5. He’s been productive all series and has 10 points in the playoffs. He’s a big reason why Florida’s power play unit continues to click. Aleksander Barkov, the team’s leader in assists, has also been a reliable two-way presence. Brad Marchand is getting in on the action as well with his 9 points in the playoffs.

Florida enters Game 6 averaging a whopping 3.90 GF/G in the postseason, third-best among all playoff teams. Their special teams are the biggest difference-makers — the power play unit is converting at 23.5% and their penalty kill unit is operating at a superb 88.9%. Consistent special teams are how you win playoff games. In contrast, Toronto’s power play has failed to convert recently and their penalty kill isn’t good enough to make up for it.

The Panthers’ defense is blocking tons of shots, winning puck battles, and keeping the low slot clean. Sergei Bobrovsky has now stopped 95 of the last 100 shots he’s faced and carries a .969 SV% from Game 5. When he’s locked in like this, the Panthers are a very tough out. It’s easy to see why they won the cup last year and making a case again this year.

Prediction and Best Pick

This matchup feels like it’s tilted too far in Florida’s favor to expect another momentum swing.

Toronto’s inconsistencies, especially on special teams, have cost them in key moments throughout this series. Game 5 was a confidence crusher for the Leafs as they looked slow, rattled, and unsure, while Florida played with control and aggression.

Unless the Leafs’ stars take over and Bobrovsky suddenly falls apart, it’s hard to see a scenario where Toronto pulls this off on the road. Florida has been the deeper, more disciplined, and more balanced team in this series.

With the crowd behind them and all the pressure on the visitors, the Panthers are primed to finish this in 6.

• HelloRookie’s Prediction: Panthers 4, Maple Leafs 2
• Best Bet: Florida Panthers puck line -1.5 at +114

While the moneyline is the safer bet, we have to go with the puck line due to the odds. -230 for a win isn’t much, but we’d chance the -1.5 for +114. There’s always a good chance the Leafs pull the netminder to save the season and the Panthers would love to grab an empty-netter to wrap up the series on their home ice.

Panthers vs Maple Leafs Series at a Glance