Timberwolves vs. Nuggets Game 2 Prediction: Can Anthony Edwards Quiet the Ball Arena Crowd?

The Denver Nuggets won Game 1 of this first-round series 116-105, and if you watched it, the margin felt even more comfortable than that. Nikola Jokic was Jokic — pulling strings, finding openings, operating as the most difficult player in the league to guard on any given possession. Jamal Murray scored 30 points and reminded everyone why this pairing is so dangerous. Anthony Edwards had 22 points for Minnesota, which sounds okay until you remember that he averages 29 points per game and the Timberwolves needed a bigger effort from him. Game 2 at Ball Arena tips off Monday at 10:30 PM Eastern, and the most anticipated first-round matchup in the Western Conference resumes with Denver firmly in command.

This series is loaded with history. In 2023, Denver beat Minnesota 4-1 on their way to the NBA championship. In 2024, the Timberwolves returned the favor and upset the Nuggets in seven games. Now it is 2026, Denver has the third seed and home court, and the Nuggets have something to prove. They also have the best player on the floor most nights, and Jokic is averaging 27.7 points, 12.9 rebounds, and 10.7 assists this season on 57 percent shooting. That is not a typo.

Denver Opens as Heavy Favorites — And Their Track Record Supports It

The Nuggets are favored at -245 on the moneyline, with the spread set at -6.5 and the over/under at 231. Denver won three of four regular-season matchups against Minnesota this season. They ranked first in the NBA in scoring at 122 points per game, first in offensive rating, and first in field goal percentage. Their home record was 28-13. There is a genuine argument that Denver is the best team in the Western Conference when fully healthy, and right now they look like it.

Jokic-Murray vs. Edwards and the Best Defense in the West

The fundamental tension of this series is whether Minnesota’s defense — ranked eighth in the league — can find a way to slow down a Jokic-Murray pairing that was virtually unstoppable in Game 1. Murray’s 30 points came on efficient shooting and he averaged 25 points and 7 assists this season while shooting 48 percent from the field and 43 percent from three. He is the perfect complement to Jokic’s selfless, pass-first style, because when Murray is hitting, the two-man game becomes borderline impossible to defend.

Minnesota’s strategy in 2024 involved Rudy Gobert in a roaming, help-defense scheme that created confusion for Jokic. Whether that strategy works again remains to be seen — Jokic has likely studied the tape extensively — but Gobert’s ability to protect the paint and disrupt passing lanes gives Minnesota its best chance of keeping games close. The Timberwolves also have Jaden McDaniels, who shot 51.5 percent from the field and 41 percent from three during the regular season, giving them a credible secondary scorer alongside Edwards.

Edwards needs to be the difference-maker in Game 2. He averaged 29 points, 5 rebounds, and 4 assists this season on 49 percent shooting and 40 percent from three. He was named All-Star Game MVP just two months ago. The 22 points he put up in Game 1 were below his capability, and the Timberwolves’ chances of winning this series hinge almost entirely on him matching Jokic’s level of impact. Naz Reid and Donte DiVincenzo will need to contribute off the bench, and Julius Randle — another key secondary scorer — has to give Minnesota consistent production.

Denver does have a notable absence in Peyton Watson, who is out with a hamstring injury. Watson is an important defensive piece for the Nuggets. His absence creates some rotation challenges for head coach Michael Malone, though Denver’s depth is deep enough to absorb it. The Nuggets will be just fine at home in Game 2 with Jokic and Murray operating as a two-man wrecking crew.

Prediction and Best Bet

Denver wins Game 2 and takes a 2-0 series lead. This is Jokic’s best opportunity to close out a series efficiently and the Nuggets are playing with the revenge motivation that was evident in every possession of Game 1. Edwards will be better — he is too talented not to be — but Denver’s home court combined with Jokic’s brilliance gives the Nuggets every structural advantage in this matchup.

The game total at 231 is worth examining. Both teams are capable of offensive fireworks — Denver ranked first in scoring, and Edwards can go off at any moment. But this is also a playoff game where defense and discipline typically tighten things up. A game in the 225-230 range is very plausible.

• Prediction: Nuggets 118, Timberwolves 110
• Best Bet: Denver Nuggets -6.5

Denver is the more complete team, they have the better star player on the floor, and they are at home where they went 28-13 this season. Minnesota will fight, but covering 6.5 points against a Jokic-led Nuggets team at Ball Arena is a tall order for any opponent in the playoffs. Take Denver and lay the points.