Steelers vs Bengals Prediction, Betting Odds, and Our Best Bet for Week 7

Thursday Night Football brings us an old-school AFC North showdown between the Pittsburgh Steelers and the reeling Cincinnati Bengals. The Steelers are sitting comfortably at 4-1, while the Bengals are at 2-4 and trying to salvage what they can with the season. The Steelers come into this game as 5.5-point favorites, with the over/under sitting at 43.5 total points.

This is a matchup between a Pittsburgh team that’s gaining tons of momentum and a Bengals squad still trying to stabilize after losing Joe Burrow. The Steelers have won 3 straight, while Cincinnati has dropped its last 4 games straight. Something has to give on TNF, but recent form — and the numbers — paint a clear picture.

Game Details and Recent Form

The Steelers have found a rhythm after a somewhat slow start. Since beginning the season 1-1, they’ve rattled off 3 straight wins over the Jets, Patriots, and Browns. Most recently, they took care of Cleveland 23-9 in Week 6, holding the Browns to under 200 total yards. Those teams might not be the most dominant in the league, but at least 2 of them still have winning records.

QB Aaron Rodgers has been efficient and smart with the ball as he’s completed 95 of 138 passes for 1,021 yards, 10 TDs, and just 3 interceptions. His chemistry with DK Metcalf has taken off, and Metcalf is on fire. Metcalf has scored in 4 straight games, leads the team with 356 receiving yards, and is just one touchdown shy of last year’s total. Rodgers is starting to look like vintage Rodgers and ranks 6th in the league in passer rating and has been especially good on the road — something that matters in an incredibly loud Cincinnati environment.

Pittsburgh’s defense has quietly improved as well. They’ve held opponents to just 21.4 PPG, good for 16th in the league, generated 20 sacks, placing them 3rd in the league, and picked off 5 passes. They aren’t exactly flashy, but they’ve been opportunistic, and their +7 turnover margin ranks 2nd in the NFL.

On the other side, the Bengals are still trying to find their footing without Burrow. After going to Jake Browning for a few games and turning the ball over 11 times in Weeks 2 through 4, they brought in veteran Joe Flacco, who brought some stability in Week 6. Flacco, despite having just a few days to get to know the playbook, threw 2 TDs and no picks in a 27-18 loss to Green Bay, showing signs of life, but not enough to change the course of a season.

But let’s be honest; the Bengals’ problems run deeper than the quarterback. They’re averaging just 17.2 PPG, which ranks 29th, and are dead last in total yards per game with 250.8. Their run game is almost nonexistent with only 56.7 rushing YPG, which also ranks 32nd. Wideout Ja’Marr Chase continues to shine with 468 receiving yards and 4 TDs, but he’s the lone bright spot on a struggling offense.

Defensively, things are even worse, if you can imagine that. Cincinnati is giving up a massive 30.5 PPG, which ranks 30th in the NFL. They’re allowing 394.2 yards per game, and they’re in the bottom 2 in both passing and rushing defense. Opponents are moving the ball at will and nearly always scoring touchdowns when they get inside the 20.

The Bengals’ pass rush isn’t helping, either. They’ve only registered 11 sacks all season, and Trey Hendrickson, who leads the team in that category, is dealing with a hip injury. If he’s limited or out, which we expect he will be, that leaves a very soft front 7 for Pittsburgh to exploit. On the back end, their secondary is allowing 258.5 passing YPG, which ranks 31st — a bad sign heading into a game against a quarterback like Rodgers, who is in full form.

Analysis and Prediction

This game comes down to which team can play cleaner football and capitalize on the other’s weaknesses. Right now, that’s Pittsburgh, and it’s not particularly close.

The Steelers aren’t really dominant offensively, but they’re balanced enough to take advantage of Cincinnati’s many weak spots. Rodgers isn’t turning the ball over, and he’s spreading it around effectively. Even though the Steelers rank near the bottom in rushing with 84 yards per game, they don’t need a dominant ground game when Rodgers is in control and the defense is giving them short fields.

On defense, Pittsburgh should be able to rattle Flacco and keep him in check. The Bengals’ offensive line hasn’t held up well, and without a run game to lean on, Flacco is going to be forced into obvious passing downs. That plays right into the hands of Nick Herbig and the Steelers’ front, which has been excellent at generating pressure.

And even if Cincinnati plays a fairly clean game like they did against the Packers, the ceiling just isn’t high enough to get past the Steelers. They’ve scored 20+ points just once all season. Their red-zone efficiency is good enough for 2nd in the league, but they don’t get into the red zone often enough to make that stat meaningful. Meanwhile, Pittsburgh has been one of the best teams in football at converting turnovers into points, which is a big advantage in a game like this.

Historically, Pittsburgh has dominated this series, especially in Cincinnati. The Steelers have won each of their last 3 trips to Paycor Stadium, and Mike Tomlin’s teams typically play well in divisional road spots, even if the against-the-spread record is shaky as a favorite.

This isn’t a fluke run for Pittsburgh. They’re playing solid, mistake-free football, and facing a Bengals team that has very little margin for error. Cincinnati’s defense won’t be able to hold up for the full 4 quarters, and Flacco likely can’t keep pace in a shootout. He might have the tools between Chase and Higgins, but the supporting cast isn’t there to protect him, and he’s definitely showing his age.

• Prediction: Steelers 24, Bengals 16
• Best Bet: Steelers -5.5 at -110

The Steelers -5.5 on the spread is the best bet here. Cincinnati’s defense can’t stop the pass, its offense is one-dimensional, and they’re simply playing a red-hot team that’s dominating on both sides of the ball. We’re looking for Rodgers and Metcalf to connect for another touchdown, and for Pittsburgh’s pass rush to disrupt Flacco enough to force key stops.

Maybe -110 isn’t juicy enough for you, so you might want to think about adding on a DK Metcalf anytime TD to your bet slip. He’s scored in 4 straight games and is Rodgers’ go-to guy in the red zone. At +135, that’s the kind of plus money player prop we can get behind.