Stars vs Jets Prediction, Betting Odds, and Best Bet for Game 1 Clash in Canada

The Dallas Stars and Winnipeg Jets are squaring off in the 2nd round of the NHL playoffs tonight, and it’s already looking like it’s going to be a heavyweight bout. Both teams are coming off emotional, come-from-behind Game 7 wins and head into Game 1 with plenty of confidence — but also a few lingering questions. 

Sure, the Jets hold home-ice advantage, but will that be enough to tip the scales in their favor?

Game Details: Jets Hold the Edge at Home

Game 1 will be played at Canada Life Centre in Winnipeg, where the Jets, pinned as the underdogs at +105, were rock solid during the regular season and handled their business against Dallas, who is coming into tonight’s game as the favorites at -142 — going 3-1 in the regular season series. These 2 hockey clubs finished 1st and 2nd in the Central Division, but this is the first time they’ve ever met in a postseason series and we all know that anything can happen in the postseason.

Both teams had to gut out tough Game 7 wins to get here, but they got the job done. Winnipeg looked dead in the water against St. Louis before scoring twice in the final 2 minutes and winning it in 2OT on an Adam Lowry goal. Dallas on the other hand rallied from a 2-0 3rd-period deficit to take down Colorado, thanks to a huge night from Mikko Rantanen.

Dallas comes in with some serious playoff scars. Under coach Pete DeBoer, they’ve now lost 8 straight Game 1s and haven’t won a series opener since 2022. Even with DeBoer’s sparkling 9-0 record in Game 7s, Game 1 continues to be a black mark for the Texas team. That history matters when heading into a loud Winnipeg arena and they know it’s never a good look trying to come from behind in a series.

Injuries, Goaltending, and Key Factors

Injuries could tilt the scales in this series.

Dallas is likely to be without top scorer Jason Robertson, who hasn’t played since getting hurt in the regular-season finale. Miro Heiskanen, their top blue-liner, has been sidelined since January with a lower-body injury. Despite figuring out how to get the wins without those 2 powerhouses, those absences are massive against a team like Winnipeg that can roll three scoring lines.

The Jets aren’t 100% either. Mark Scheifele, who has 23 goals on the season, missed the last 2 games of the 1st round and is a game-time decision. Josh Morrissey, their best defenseman and top power play line quarterback, exited Game 7 early and may not be available either for tonight’s matchup.

Obviously, the injuries on both sides haven’t taken too big of a toll on these teams as they’ve still made it this far. However, with each round of the playoffs comes more challenges and they’ll both need their depth to step up.

Goaltending could be the X-factor. Connor Hellebuyck, a 2-time Vezina winner and probably looking at his 3rd, saved his best for last against the Blues. He stopped 109 of 113 shots vs. Dallas in the regular season with a .965 SV% and gave up just 10 goals in 4 home games. His career playoff numbers aren’t elite, however as he is 22-30 with a .902 SV% and 2.98 GAA, but he looked calm and confident in Game 7. If he can get as hot in the postseason as he is in the regular season, he would be unstoppable.

Across the ice, Jake Oettinger has better overall playoff numbers with a .915 SV% and 2.52 GAA, but the Stars have allowed more goals per game at 3.43 this postseason than the Jets at 3.86. This is largely due to how leaky they’ve been defensively without Heiskanen.

Offensively, Kyle Connor continues to be a one-man wrecking crew for the Jets. With 41 goals and 97 points during the regular season, he’s the spark plug of Winnipeg’s attack. The Jets rank 10th in playoff scoring at 2.86 GF/G, just behind Dallas at 3.00. But Dallas has the better power play unit, converting at over 30% — a big weapon, especially if the Jets keep taking penalties and they’ve already racked up 76 PIM this postseason.

Still, the Stars’ depth is undoubtedly being tested. With Robertson potentially out and top-line minutes spread thin, the Jets can key in on Matt Duchene and Joe Pavelski to keep them out of the mix. That’ll cause the Dallas depth to step up even more. Winnipeg has more forward depth and more scoring balance, especially at home.

Prop Bet Spotlight — Kyle Connor to Score an Anytime Goal

Kyle Connor Over 0.5 Goals at +130 is a high-upside prop that makes a ton of sense in this matchup.

Connor leads Winnipeg in goals and points, and he’s been clutch at home all year. He’s scored in 3 of his last 4 playoff games, and he torched Dallas in the regular season. On top of that, he’s scored at least 1 goal in each of the Jet’s last 5 Game 1s of a playoff series. Without Josh Morrissey driving the play, the Jets will need more from their top 6 — and Connor is the guy who usually steps up.

Dallas has struggled to contain fast, puck-moving wings, and their PK unit hasn’t been as sharp. That opens the door for Connor to bury one on the power play or even at 5-on-5 if he catches a matchup against Dallas’s second pair.

If you’re looking to play a player prop to cash for tonight’s game, Connor to score a goal is one of the better spots on the board. He’s averaging 4+ shots per game in the playoffs and leads the team in shot attempts.

Final Prediction and Best Bet

This has all the makings of a tight, emotional series, but Game 1 definitely leans toward Winnipeg for a few key reasons.

Hellebuyck is dialed in, Connor is hot, and Dallas just doesn’t win series openers — especially on the road. Now when you combine that with the Stars’ injury woes and the fact that Winnipeg handled them in the regular season, the value is clearly on the Jets in this spot.

• HelloRookie’s Prediction: Winnipeg Jets 3, Dallas Stars 2
• Best Bet: Winnipeg Jets moneyline at +105

We expect this game to be extremely close but the Jets take it in the end. This one could even go to overtime, so taking the Jets on the 60 minute line at +155 might be a stretch as well.

Stars vs Jets Playoff Series Schedule