St. Louis Blues vs Utah Mammoth Prediction — Will the Blues Break Their Road Skid?
The St. Louis Blues are undeniably desperate to stop a 3-game road skid, and tonight in Utah might be their best shot — or possibly their next reminder of how far they’ve fallen behind in the Central, and there’s no hope. However, the Utah Mammoth, who’ve been hot-and-cold themselves lately, will try to protect home ice and grab an edge in a tied season series.
These 2 split their first 2 matchups, with Utah winning a wild 7-4 shootout back in October and St. Louis grinding out a 1-0 win in November. Now it’s round 3, and both teams need points to even stay close in the playoff mix in a crowded Central Division.
Sure, most eyes will be on the Oregon vs Indiana game tonight, but there’s still some good bets on this NHL showdown.
Game Details and Betting Odds
This Central Division clash is set for tonight at 8:00 PM EST in Salt Lake City and will be shown on ESPN+.
The Utah Mammoth and their 21-20-3 record are -180 favorites on the moneyline, while the St. Louis Blues, sitting at 17-19-8, are listed as +150 underdogs. The total is set at 5.5 goals, with both sides carrying a -110 payout.
| Team | Spread | Total | Moneyline |
|---|---|---|---|
| St. Louis Blues | +1.5 −170 |
O 5.5 −120 |
+150 |
| Utah Hockey Club | −1.5 +142 |
U 5.5 EVEN |
−180 |
St. Louis is on their 2nd game of a tough road stretch and has just 7 wins in 20 games away from home this season. Any hopes of salvaging this season are slowly slipping away 60 minutes at a time. Utah, meanwhile, is a respectable 10-7-1 at home and has already beaten the Blues once in their own barn.
Recent Form and Team Comparison
Utah has a mix of wins and losses in their last 5, but comes in tonight off a 3-1 win over Ottawa. They’ve gone 5-5-0 in their last 10, allowing just 2.4 GAA in that stretch. St. Louis is 5-4-1 over the same span but has been outscored 13-6 on their current 3-game road losing streak.
Overall, the Blues have a troubling -41 goal differential, compared to Utah’s +8. That gap tells the story of how this game might go.
Offensively, Utah has scored 133 goals, which is good for 16th in the NHL, while St. Louis sits dead last with 110. That’s not a typo. The Blues have been ice-cold when it comes to finishing chances, even with decent playmakers like Robert Thomas and Pavel Buchnevich in the mix. While their offense can’t seem to find the back of the net, their defense isn’t much better, but more on that in a second.
Utah holds the edge in almost every offensive category, including assists with 214 vs. 184, shooting percentage with 10.7% to 10.1%, and power play goals. Clayton Keller leads the way with 38 points spanning 13 goals and 25 helpers, while Dylan Guenther is heating up with 6 goals in his last 10 games.
On the blue line, St. Louis is allowing 3.43 GAA, which is 30th in the NHL. That’s been a recurring issue, and neither of their netminders has been able to cover up the defensive leaks. Jordan Binnington has an .871 SV% and a brutal 3.55 GAA, while Joel Hofer has been slightly better with a .900 SV% and 2.88 GAA, but nonetheless inconsistent.
Now compare that to Utah’s Karel Vejmelka, who has quietly put together a solid season with a 2.65 GAA and .897 SV%. Unfortunately for the Blues, he’s projected to start, which alone gives Utah a huge advantage.
What the Numbers Tell Us
Not convinced that this game is lopsided? When you dig into the advanced stats, the differences become even more obvious.
The Blues are bottom-5 in nearly every major category. They rank 32nd in goals, 30th in assists, 25th in PP%, and 28th in PK%. Their PK unit has killed off just 76.5% of penalties. Utah isn’t necessarily elite as they sit in the middle of the pack, but their 81.3% PK is 12th, and a balanced offense gives them the edge in special teams.
This is where it could get interesting — Both teams take too many penalties. However, Utah takes the lead with this as they have 373 penalty minutes, 2nd-most in the NHL. Still, with St. Louis’ power play converting just 16.5% of the time, Utah may not pay for its mistakes.
In head-to-head play, they’re tied 1-1 this season. But it’s worth noting that Utah dominated the first game, and St. Louis barely escaped with a 1-0 win in the second — despite being outshot and outplayed for long stretches.
Prediction and Best Bet
The Blues just don’t bring enough firepower on the road, and their defensive issues keep biting them. St. Louis is 7-10-3 away from home, and with Binnington likely starting, it’s hard to trust them against a team that has proven it can score when they need it.
Utah is far from perfect, but they’re better than St. Louis in just about every department. With Clayton Keller, Nick Schmaltz, and Dylan Guenther leading the charge and Vejmelka giving them solid goaltending in the net, Utah should control this game at even strength.
St. Louis needs a perfect performance to win, and that means staying out of the box, converting on limited scoring chances, and getting elite goaltending. We just haven’t seen all 3 of those things line up this season, and we’re not so sure it’ll happen tonight.
- Prediction: Utah Mammoth 4, St. Louis Blues 2
- Best Bet: Utah Mammoth -1.5 at +142
Utah is at home, and they’re facing a team that’s lost 3 straight on the road, all while they’re playing behind the better goalie — we’ll take the puck line for plus money. The Mammoth have already beaten St. Louis by 3 once this season and can do it again with no issues. St. Louis is tied for 7th in the league for most empty-netter goals allowed, so this might add to the Mammoth’s insurance.
Matt Brown
Head of Sports Betting and DFS
Matt’s love for sports betting and daily fantasy sports, coupled with a deep understanding of football, hockey, and baseball, shapes his innovative thoughts on Hello Rookie. He has a B.S. in Aeronautical Computer Science and a M.S. in Project Management.
