The NFC West brings us a TNF matchup between 2 teams off to a decent start as they’re both 2-1, but it feels like they’re trending in different directions. The Seattle Seahawks, riding a wave of momentum, head to Glendale to face the Arizona Cardinals, who are coming off a hard-fought loss to the 49ers.
It’s no secret that Seattle has completely owned this series in recent years. They’ve won 7 straight matchups against Arizona, and on top of that, 5 of them by double digits. The last time the Cardinals beat Seattle was back in 2020.
With the Seahawks listed as 1.5-point road favorites and the over/under set at 43.5, bookmakers see this one as close. But is it really?
Team | Spread | Total | Moneyline |
---|---|---|---|
SEA Seahawks | -1.5 (-105) | O 43.5 (-105) | -122 |
ARI Cardinals | +1.5 (-115) | U 43.5 (-115) | +102 |
Kickoff is set for 8:15 p.m. ET tomorrow night from State Farm Stadium in Glendale, Arizona, and whether you love it or hate it, the game will air on Amazon Prime Video.
The Seahawks are -1.5 favorites at -105 on the spread and -122 on the moneyline, while the Cardinals are +1.5 underdogs priced around -115 and +102 on the moneyline. The point total is set at 43.5, with -105 odds on the over and -115 on the under.
Arizona gets the home-field advantage, but Seattle is undeniably rolling, both offensively and defensively, and the road games haven’t affected them in this series anyway. That’s why the Seahawks are favored despite being on the road. And when you look at how both teams have been playing through 3 weeks, it makes sense.
Seattle’s biggest advantage might be balance.
They’re 5th in the league in points per game at 29.3 and just 2nd in points allowed per game at 15.7. In an NFL landscape where most teams are either offense-heavy or defensive-minded, the Seahawks are holding their own with both.
Sam Darnold has surprised many, including us, in his first 3 starts, completing 70% of his passes for 663 yards, 4 TDs, and just 2 INTs. His top target, Jaxon Smith-Njigba, has racked up 323 receiving yards and is becoming a nightmare for secondaries. The ground game hasn’t quite taken off the same way as the air game, but Kenneth Walker III has punched in 3 touchdowns and is giving Seattle just enough balance to keep defenses honest.
Defensively, the Seahawks are undeniably elite in all the right areas. They haven’t allowed a single rushing TD all year, and their run defense ranks 7th in rushing yards allowed per game, with only 90. That spells trouble for an Arizona team that just lost James Conner to a season-ending foot injury.
Arizona will now lean on Trey Benson, who’s looked good in the limited carries he’s had with 125 yards on 21 touches, averaging 6.0 YPC. But this is a much tougher front than what he’s seen so far. And if the Cardinals fall behind early, they may have to lean on Kyler Murray’s arm more than they’d like.
Arizona deserves credit for how far its defense has come. Just a year ago, they were near the bottom in most metrics. Now, they’re 5th in scoring defense with 17.0 points allowed per game and 4th in rushing defense with 76.3 yards allowed per game. Their ability to make offenses one-dimensional is a real strength.
Kyler Murray, though not lighting it up, has been efficient enough as he’s 60-of-89 for 542 yards, 4 TDs, and just 1 interception. He’s also dangerous with his legs, averaging 5.4 YPC. TE Trey McBride has emerged as his top target, leading the team with 182 receiving yards and a touchdown.
Arizona has also been solid at controlling the clock as they’re averaging 31:43 time of possession per game, which ranks 10th in the league. If they can keep Darnold and the Seattle offense on the sideline, they’ll have a chance to grind this one out and finally break their streak against the Seahawks.
But here’s the biggest and most glaring issue — Arizona’s pass defense ranks 30th, giving up 264.3 passing yards per game. That’s not a great matchup against a Seahawks offense that thrives through the air and has a QB playing with some serious confidence.
One major red flag for Arizona is that they’re tied for 25th in sacks with 5 and have just 2 interceptions through 3 games. Seattle, meanwhile, has already picked off 5 passes and gotten 6 sacks, making more game-changing plays on defense.
Also worth noting is that Seattle is 5-1 against the spread as a road underdog since Mike Macdonald took over as head coach. Darnold, personally, is 17-9-1 ATS since 2022, which is one of the best cover rates for any starting quarterback over that stretch.
On top of that, Seattle has been tested. Their last 2 wins came against Pittsburgh (31-17) and New Orleans (44-13) — teams with competent defenses. Arizona, on the other hand, has wins over the Panthers and Saints, and just lost to a banged-up 49ers squad.
This is a game where the better, more complete team is also the one that’s hotter and healthier. Seattle has clear edges at QB, WR, defensive line, and secondary. Arizona’s defense is respectable, sure, but they’ve yet to stop an offense like Seattle’s — and with Conner gone, they’re missing their most reliable weapon for that task.
Unless Kyler Murray plays out of his mind and the Cardinals find unexpected big plays, this game sets up well for the Seahawks to take control early and keep the pressure on.
The Seahawks are the better team on both sides of the ball, have a more efficient offense, and have a proven track record against Arizona. If you want to take a crack at a player prop bet, take a look at Jaxon Smith-Njigba OVER 83.5 Receiving Yards for around -115 – Arizona’s secondary is shaky, and he’s Darnold’s favorite target. He might get that kind of yardage before the half.
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