San Diego Padres vs Chicago Cubs Prediction, Odds, and Our Best Bet
One of the most exciting matchups of the night is the San Diego Padres hosting the Chicago Cubs at Petco Park. This is the 2nd and final series of the season between these 2 teams, with the Cubs leading 2-1 after taking the 1st series at Wrigley Field earlier this month.
With both teams off to a smoking hot start to their season, can the Padres bounce back on the Cubbies and grab this mid-week series from them?
Breaking Down the Odds
| Team | Run Line | Total | Moneyline |
|---|---|---|---|
| Chicago Cubs Jameson Taillon |
+1.5 -162 |
O 7.5 -105 |
+136 |
| San Diego Padres Dylan Cease |
-1.5 +136 |
U 7.5 -115 |
-162 |
The odds for this game show the Padres as decent favorites on the moneyline at -162, while the Cubs are underdogs priced at just +136.
The run line has the Padres at -1.5 with +136 odds, and the Cubs at +1.5 with -162 which means even the bookmakers are thinking this game will be fairly close. The over/under for total runs is set at 7.5, with the over at -105 and the under at -115. In their first 3 games against each other, these teams topped that total 2 out of 3 games.
The books of course are leaning toward the Padres at home, but with the Cubs winning the 1st series, we think this could be a tight game.
Analyzing the Matchup
| Cubs | Padres | |
|---|---|---|
| 4-4 | Home | 10-0 |
| 7-3 | Road | 3-3 |
| 11-7 | Run Line | 11-5 |
| 12-5-1 | O/U | 7-8-1 |
| W2 | Streak | W4 |
| 6.4 | Avg. Runs For | 4.6 |
| 4.1 | Avg. Runs Against | 2.7 |
| 6.2 | Avg. Winning Margin | 3.4 |
| 3.5 | Avg. Losing Margin | 4.7 |
| 10.5 | Avg. Total Runs | 7.3 |
The Padres are 13-3 this season, leading the NL West with a dominant .813 winning percentage — the best in the MLB. They’ve won 4 straight games, including a sweep of the Rockies on the road where they didn’t give up a single run during the entire series.
Their offense has been nothing less than solid, averaging 4.6 runs per game, which ranks 10th in the league. Fernando Tatis Jr. is leading the charge with 4 home runs and 9 RBIs, while also hitting .351. Jackson Merrill is helping out as well with his 3 dingers, 10 RBIs, and a .378 AVG. On the mound, Dylan Cease gets the start for San Diego, though he’s had better starts than this. He’s 1-1 with a 7.98 ERA over 14.2 innings, striking out 17 and allowing just 1 home run. The Padres are hoping he’ll find his usual stuff in tonight’s game.
The Cubs, sitting nicely at 11-7, are atop the NL Central with a decent .611 winning percentage. They’ve won their last 2 games, including an insane 16-0 win over the Dodgers. Their offense has been on fire, averaging a whopping 6.4 runs per game, which leads the league. Kyle Tucker is swinging a hot bat with 5 taters and 18 RBIs, while also hitting .324. Jameson Taillon takes the bump for Chicago, coming in with a 1-1 record and a 6.06 ERA. Sure, Taillon has struggled a bit, giving up 4 home runs in 16.1 innings, but he’s managed 14 Ks and has a WHIP of 1.35. Those numbers aren’t hot, but they’re better than Cease’s.
Team stats, however, show some clear differences.
The Padres have a big edge in batting average at .283 which is 1st in the MLB compared to the Cubs .256 which is good for 6th, but Chicago has a slight advantage in home runs, averaging 1.4 per game compared to San Diego’s 0.9. The Padres also have a better team ERA at 2.68 which is 2nd in the MLB compared to the Cubs’ 4.02 which is in the middle of the pack. On top of that, San Diego is limiting opponents to a league-best .181 batting average, while Chicago is at .255.
The series’ history adds a bit of context as well. The Cubs won the first series 2-1, taking Game 1 with a score of 3-1 and Game 2 with a blowout at 7-1, while the Padres came back and squeezed out a win in Game 3 with a score of 8-7.
The Padres are looking to even things up in this second series, and they’ve got the home-field advantage at Petco Park, where they’re averaging a solid 6.3 runs per game in this matchup. The Cubs will need to keep their bats hot to be competitive on the road.
Our Prediction and Best Pick
We think the Padres are going to win this game, and we’re taking them at +136 on the run line.
Dylan Cease gives the Padres a big edge on the mound. Despite his 7.98 ERA, he still has 17 strikeouts in 14.2 innings showing he’s in great form, and the Cubs’ offense, while averaging 6.4 runs per game, will undoubtedly struggle against San Diego’s pitching staff, which leads the league with a .181 OBA. The Padres’ ability to limit home runs and keep runners off base with a 2.68 ERA makes them tough to beat at Petco Park.
Beyond that, the Padres’ offense has been consistent, and Fernando Tatis Jr. is a difference-maker with his .351 batting average and 4 home runs. They’re facing Jameson Taillon, who’s struggled with a 6.08 ERA and has given up 4 home runs across his 16.1 innings. That’s a bad matchup for the Cubs, especially since the Padres are hitting .283 as a team. Then you pile on San Diego’s home-field advantage at Petco Park, where they’ve been averaging 6.3 runs per game against the Cubs, giving them yet another boost.
- HelloRookie’s Prediction: Padres 5, Cubs 3
- Best Bet: Padres on the run line -1.5 at +136
The Cubs have a potent offense, but their pitching has been a weak spot, and they’re on the road against a Padres team that’s won 4 straight and their bats are hot. The Cubs might keep it close with Kyle Tucker swinging a hot bat, but San Diego’s pitching and timely hitting will get the job done.
Tonight is the night that Cease gets on track and back to his normal self and the Padres take this game by at least a couple of runs. At +136, we’ll take that plus-money all day long.
Matt Brown
Head of Sports Betting and DFS
Matt’s love for sports betting and daily fantasy sports, coupled with a deep understanding of football, hockey, and baseball, shapes his innovative thoughts on Hello Rookie. He has a B.S. in Aeronautical Computer Science and a M.S. in Project Management.
