Reds vs Dodgers Prediction, Betting Odds, and Best Picks for August 27

The Cincinnati Reds and Los Angeles Dodgers wrap up their 3-game series tonight at Dodger Stadium. Los Angeles has taken the first 2 games by a combined score of 13-3 and now looks to complete the sweep. Cincinnati, on the other hand, is desperate to stop the bleeding and stay alive in the NL Wild Card race, as they have just 29 games remaining to hopefully clinch a spot.

The Reds are coming in at 68-65, clinging to relevance in the NL Central despite losing back-to-back games and 4 of their last 6 games overall. The Dodgers sit atop the NL West at 76-57 and are trending in the right direction with a 3-game win streak under their belt. However, they have to stay hot as they have the Padres hot on their heels.

This one features an interesting pitching matchup as Nick Lodolo returns to the mound for Cincinnati, while Shohei Ohtani continues his comeback tour for Los Angeles.

Game Details, Pitching Matchup, and Key Stats

Nick Lodolo has been Cincinnati’s most consistent SP this season. He’s posting an 8-6 record with a 3.05 ERA and a 1.03 WHIP over 129.2 innings, which places him as one of the best pitchers in the league. Before a brief IL stint for a blister, Lodolo was in a groove — in July alone, he put up 33.1 innings of work and gave up just 7 earned runs, good for a 1.89 ERA. That stretch included dominant starts against the Mets, Marlins, and Nationals. He pitched only 1.2 innings in his last game earlier this month when he was pulled for the injury, but even in that short span, he struck out 4 and looked as sharp as ever.

On the other side, Shohei Ohtani continues to struggle on the bump. Since returning to the Dodgers’ rotation in June, Ohtani has made 10 starts spanning 27.1 innings and been hit hard in all of them. Across 12.1 innings this month, he’s allowed 16 hits, 10 earned runs, and 8 walks, with a bloated 7.30 ERA. Opponents are hitting .327 OBA off him in that span, and he hasn’t made it out of the 5th inning in any appearance, which could be by design or the fact that he’s getting carved up.

Season-long, Ohtani sits at 0-1 with a 4.61 ERA and 1.28 WHIP in just 27.1 innings. His strikeout stuff is undeniably still there as he has 35 Ks in that time, but command and control have been issues.

The Dodgers enter tonight’s game ranked 1st in MLB in runs per game, averaging 5.2, and 2nd in home runs with 200. Offensively, they’re led by Shohei Ohtani, who has 45 HRs, a .278 AVG, and 85 RBIs, and Freddie Freeman, who has a .302 AVG and a .501 SLG. The lineup has scored 13 runs in the first 2 games of this series alone, but it’s worth noting that those were against Martinez and Greene, both of whom are nowhere near Lodolo’s caliber.

The Reds are much less explosive at the plate. They rank 24th in HRs and 17th in team batting average with a .246. Elly De La Cruz continues to be the standout as expected. He’s leading the team with 19 home runs, 77 RBIs, and a .273 AVG — but he hasn’t gotten much help recently.

Betting Odds and Market Insights

The Dodgers are -208 moneyline favorites, while the Reds are priced at +168. On the run line, Los Angeles is -1.5 (+102), and Cincinnati is +1.5 (-119). The total is set at 8.5 runs, with both the over and under sitting at -110.

Given Ohtani’s recent pitching struggles and Lodolo’s steady performance, the Reds offer some serious value as underdogs. It’s not often you get a plus-money price on a team with the better starting pitcher, but that’s the case here. It’s obvious that the Dodgers’ offense and name-brand value are inflating the line.

Game Breakdown and Prediction

Let’s be clear — the Dodgers have been dominant at home, and they’re one of the best teams in baseball. They’ve won 3 straight games overall and are now 53-41 in night games, which makes them one of the toughest teams to beat after dark. But pitching matters, and that’s where the Reds have the edge.

Nick Lodolo has been nails. He hasn’t allowed more than 2 earned runs in any of his last 5 starts and is pitching deep into games. Despite his stint on the IL, we don’t think it’s long enough to throw him off his game. If he can give Cincinnati 6-7 innings, the Reds will be in position to pull off the upset — especially if Ohtani continues to throw the way he has been.

For Los Angeles, the offense has masked Ohtani’s pitching struggles so far. But eventually, it’ll catch up. Ohtani has walked 8 and given up 3 homers in just over 12 innings this month. His last outing vs. Colorado, one of the worst teams in the MLB this year, saw him give up 9 hits and 5 runs in 4 innings, and there’s no reason to think that trend suddenly reverses.

We can’t overlook the fact that the Reds haven’t hit much in this series, but they have the potential to do damage if Ohtani is off his game again. We’re going to look for Elly De La Cruz to be aggressive early and try to spark the offense.

If this game turns into a bullpen battle, the Dodgers still hold the advantage. But we see it like this — if Lodolo can give them 6 solid frames, the Reds can get to the Dodgers’ middle relief and flip the script.

• Reds vs Dodgers Prediction: Reds 4, Dodgers 3
• Best Bet: Take the Cincinnati Reds moneyline +168

We feel that this is a great spot to back an undervalued ace in Lodolo against an overrated version of Ohtani. The value is too strong to ignore, and that’s how we’re going to cash in on this bet.