Red Sox vs Phillies Prediction, Odds, and Our Best Bet for July 22

The Boston Red Sox and Philadelphia Phillies continue their 3-game series tonight at Citizens Bank Park, with first pitch scheduled for 7:05 PM ET. After a super tight 3-2 win in extra innings in the opening game, the Phillies have now won 3 of their last 5 and will look to stay hot behind one of their most reliable arms — Christopher Sanchez. The Red Sox, on the other hand, are trying to find a rhythm as they’ve lost 3 of their last 5 and continue to battle in a tight AL East race that has Toronto at the top.

Game Details and Probable Pitchers

The Phillies are turning to Cristopher Sanchez, who has been nothing short of excellent this season. Sanchez is kicking this one off with a solid 8-2 record and a decent 2.50 ERA spanning 115 innings of work, striking out 122 while walking just 32 and allowing just 7 dingers. He’s been even better lately, holding a 1.27 ERA in July over 21.1 innings and racking up 19 Ks with only 4 walks. His recent outings include a dominant 7.1-inning performance against the Padres of one-run ball.

For Boston, it’ll be Richard Fitts on the bump. The 25-year-old RHP is 1-3 with a 4.28 ERA in limited action of just 33.2 innings, and while his WHIP sits at a respectable 1.22, he’s given up 7 home runs in that small sample of throws. Fitts did have a strong outing earlier this month against a terrible Colorado club, going 5.2 innings with just 2 earned runs and 6 strikeouts, but his overall inconsistency and tendency to allow the long ball make this a tough assignment not just for him, but for any pitcher.

The Phillies sit at the top of the NL East with a 57-43 record, holding a slight edge over the Mets, who are behind just 0.5 games, while the Red Sox come in at 54-48, good for 3rd in the AL East, but contending with the Yankees and Blue Jays. Both teams are in playoff contention, sure, but the Phillies are playing with more consistency and have the pitching advantage tonight.

Betting Odds and Insights

Philadelphia comes in as a clear favorite at -204 on the moneyline, while Boston is priced at +165 on the moneyline. The run line is set at Phillies -1.5 at +102 and Red Sox +1.5 at -124. The bookmakers are expecting a relatively tight game but lean toward a comfortable Phillies win if Sanchez delivers as he tends to do. The total is set at 8.5 runs, with the under slightly favored at -114, while the over sits at -107.

This total makes complete sense considering the ballpark — Citizens Bank Park. This park is one of the more hitter-friendly venues in the league, averaging an insane 9.6 runs per game, but both teams feature capable starters tonight who can limit damage early.

Why the Phillies Have the Edge

The Phillies are not just better on paper — they’re simply the more complete team right now.

Their offense is powered by Kyle Schwarber, who is having a great season as he leads the team with 32 homers and 74 RBI, and Trea Turner, who’s quietly having a strong year batting .286 AVG with a .343 OBP. The lineup can hit for both power and contact, and their depth has been a difference-maker throughout the season, even against some of the toughest teams.

Sanchez’s current form adds to that advantage as well. He’s gone 7+ innings in each of his last 3 starts, and that includes outings against the Padres and Giants — two teams with decent bats. His 2.50 ERA on the season is no fluke, either. He’s been especially effective at home, using a solid sinker/changeup combo to neutralize hitters on both sides of the plate.

Boston has had its moments offensively, and Wilyer Abreu with his 20 HR and Trevor Story and his 59 RBI have delivered in key spots to keep the Sox competitive. But the Red Sox have scored 2 runs or fewer in 3 of their last 5 games, including being shut out 6-0 by the Cubs just a few days ago. Their .254 AVG matches the Phillies’, but they rank worse in strikeouts and OBP, making them more vulnerable against a pitcher like Sanchez, who limits free passes.

Defensively and in the bullpen, the Phillies again hold the upper hand. Their pen ranks near the top in strikeouts and has been effective in preserving leads all season long. Boston’s relievers have been solid but get exposed when the starter can’t go deep enough, and Fitts has yet to go 6 full innings in any of his starts, but then again, it is a small sample size.

In the end, this game feels like one where the Phillies can keep it low-scoring early and chip away against Fitts through the first 5 innings or so. Even though Philadelphia hasn’t been overwhelming in scoring lately, they’ve done just enough — especially with Sanchez keeping opponents off of the bases.

Final Prediction and Best Bet

This one shapes up to be another tight game early, but the edge in starting pitching, bullpen strength, and recent form clearly leans toward the Phillies. Fitts could get hit hard if he doesn’t keep the ball down, and Philadelphia is fully capable of capitalizing on any mistakes. With the Phillies winning 3 of their last 5 and Sanchez dominating, we can’t see how they don’t secure the series win after tonight’s game.

• Red Sox vs Phillies Prediction: Phillies 4, Red Sox 2
• Best Bet: Take the Phillies on the run line -1.5 at +102

When it comes to baseball, we tend to lean toward the moneyline, but the Phillies are just too good to grab them at -204, so we’re taking the gamble on them at +102 but with a 2-run lead. Given Sanchez’s ability to go deep and the strength of the bullpen behind him, the run line is easily within reach. For player props that can add a little more value to your bet slip, we like Cristopher Sanchez OVER 6.5 strikeouts at +120, given the Red Sox’s middling strikeout rate and Sanchez’s recent run of dominance.