Red Sox vs Angels Prediction, Odds, and Our Best Bet for June 25

The Boston Red Sox look to avoid a sweep this afternoon as they close out a 3-game series against the Los Angeles Angels in Anaheim. The Angels have already claimed the first 2 games and now lead the season series 4-1 overall. Boston enters this one trying to snap a 4-game road losing streak and get back to .500, while the Angels aim to do the same with a chance to finally reach 40 wins.

There is plenty of betting action for this game and you’re going to want to see who we have for the Red Sox vs Angels prediction.

Game Details and Starting Pitching

Today’s first pitch is set for 4:07 p.m. ET at Angel Stadium. The pitching matchup features righty Richard Fitts who is sitting at 0-3 and a 4.71 ERA for Boston against left-hander Yusei Kikuchi with his 2-6 and 3.01 ERA for Los Angeles.

Fitts has struggled early in his MLB career, giving up 5-yard bombs in just 21 innings while allowing a .271 OBA. His ERA sits at 4.71, and his 0-3 record just goes to show his inability to pitch deep into games or hold leads.

Kikuchi, meanwhile, has been better than his win-loss record suggests, but he’s still not that great, either. Through 89.2 innings, he owns a 3.01 ERA and has racked up 87 strikeouts. Despite control issues, seeing that he has 43 walks on the year, he’s limited damage and kept the Angels in games.

Betting Odds and What They Mean

The Angels are sitting as slight favorites at -132 on the moneyline, while the Red Sox sit at +108. The run line has the Angels -1.5 at +156, and the total is set at 8.5 runs, with the overpriced at -116 and the under at -105. That over/under total reflects the ballpark’s hitter-friendly nature as Angel Stadium has averaged 8.6 runs per game this season, so taking the over might be the better play here — especially with who’s on the bump.

Bettors leaning toward the Angels should consider their ability to win close games. They are 16-8 in one-run contests this year. The Red Sox, on the other hand, have dropped 4 straight on the road and are just 18-24 away from Fenway Park. It’s not looking great for the Sox.

Analysis and Key Matchups

The Angels have had Boston’s number all season. They’ve won 4 of 5 games in the head-to-head matchup. Their lineup isn’t what we’d call elite, but it has delivered when needed. Taylor Ward leads the way with 19 home runs and 53 RBI despite hitting just .211 AVG, and Nolan Schanuel is batting .278 with a .366 OBP.

Los Angeles ranks just 3rd in the majors in home runs per game at 1.5, which is bad news for a pitcher like Fitts, who’s already allowed 5 bombs in 21 innings. Their slug-first approach matches up well against a Boston staff that can be vulnerable to the long ball.

The Red Sox do have the edge in some metrics, including overall ERA at 3.95 vs. LAA’s 4.55, strikeout rate at 8.5 K/9 vs. 7.8, and OBA at .247 vs. .264. But these advantages haven’t mattered much during their current skid. Over their last 10 games, Boston has batted just .206, scored under 4 runs per game, and been outscored by 9 total runs. For the season, they look like the better team, but LAA has their number.

Their top power bat, Wilyer Abreu, has 13 homers and a .256 average, while Jarren Duran leads the team in batting at .257. Trevor Story has hit safely in recent games, but he’s batting just .232 and has driven in 39 runs. These numbers don’t exactly fly off the stat sheet, but they’re producing.

Meanwhile, the Angels have gone 6-4 over their last 10, even while hitting just .217 as a team. Their pitching has carried the bulk of the load with a 3.23 team ERA over that stretch. Kikuchi will need to avoid giving free passes, given that he’s issued 43 walks this year, but with the Red Sox struggling to string hits together, it’s a matchup we think he can manage.

Another red flag for Boston is that they’ve scored 5+ runs only once in their last 5 games, and that’s a major stat — they’re 23-11 when scoring 5+, and just 17-30 when they don’t. They need to get the bats going and they might have a chance.

Prediction and Final Score

This feels like another tough spot for Boston. Fitts hasn’t proven he can shut down major league hitters — at all — and the Angels’ power bats, especially in a stadium where the ball flies, are built to take advantage. Combine that with Boston’s cold bats and road woes, and the edge leans clearly toward Los Angeles.

• Red Sox vs Angels Prediction: Angels 6, Red Sox 3
• Best Bet: Angels on the moneyline at -132

The Angels are the better team in better form, playing at home against a pitcher who hasn’t figured things out yet. Both of these teams can turn a corner at any given moment so we’re not going to take a run line and manage our risk with just the moneyline.