Rays vs Yankees Prediction, Odds & Best Bet for July 29: Boyle vs Fried in Key AL East Battle

The Tampa Bay Rays and New York Yankees are neck and neck in the AL East race, and tonight’s game at Yankee Stadium could be a tone-setter for the division. Tampa Bay took the opener of this 4-game set 4-2, and now the Rays have a commanding lead in the season series, sitting at 3-1. The Rays are heating up, and they’ve got a wild card in Joe Boyle, while the Yankees turn to reliable lefty Max Fried to stop the skid. Can the Yankees get the jump on a game, or will the Rays continue to dominate?

Game Details and Pitching Matchup

The first pitch is set for 7:05 p.m. ET tonight in the Bronx, and all eyes will be on the 2 starting pitchers. Joe Boyle may be the most intriguing name in this matchup. He’s only made just 3 starts, but in those 19 innings, he’s allowed just 6 hits and 3 walks, with 18 Ks. His ERA sits at an impressive 1.42 with a WHIP of just 0.63. Even though the sample size is small, those are elite-level numbers.

On the other side of the diamond is Max Fried — one of the steadiest arms in the AL. He enters with a dominant 11-4 record with a 2.62 ERA and 1.04 WHIP across 127.1 innings. He’s struck out 116 while issuing just 30 free bases. The Yankees have won many of his starts this season, but recent team form puts a little more pressure on his shoulders than usual.

Despite the big bats on these lineups, we’re really interested in how this pitching matchup goes down.

Odds and Betting Lines

The Yankees are -199 favorites to win straight up on the moneyline, while the Rays come in as +161 underdogs. On the run line, New York is -1.5 at +103, and Tampa Bay is +1.5 at -125. The total is set at 8.5 runs, with the over priced at -123 and the under at +101.

The numbers say Yankees, but we’re not so sure about that. Recent trends make this one much closer, and sometimes the bookmakers get it wrong.

Breakdown and Betting Analysis

The Yankees still have the star power. Aaron Judge, one of the best batters the game has ever seen, is batting .342 with 37 HRs and 85 RBIs, easily leading the team in every major category. Their team’s slugging percentage of .451 ranks 2nd in all of baseball, and their 168 dingers are the most in MLB. Their power isn’t in question — their consistency is.

Over the last 10 games, New York has gone 4-6 while batting just .223 AVG as a team. They’ve allowed 5.69 runs per game and have been outscored by 18 runs in that span. They’ve dropped 4 of their last 5 games, including back-to-back losses to the Phillies and now the Rays. Before that, they lost a series to the Blue Jays. They’re obviously slumping at the worst possible time.

Meanwhile, Tampa Bay has also gone 4-6 in its last 10, but its trend arrow is pointing up. They’ve already won the first series against the Yankees this year, including last night’s win. Offensively, they’re getting decent production from Junior Caminero, who leads the team with 27 taters and 70 RBIs, and Jonathan Aranda, who is hitting with a .314 AVG. Their team average is .255, which is slightly better than New York’s .253 — and on top of that, they’ve actually scored more runs on the year despite having far less hype around their lineup.

Tampa Bay’s bullpen hasn’t been perfect, but it’s held onto leads when they needed them to. They’re also much more efficient at avoiding free passes, with just 302 team walks compared to New York’s 363. That discipline matters when games get tight.

What we think really makes this matchup especially intriguing is how it pits an unproven, electric arm in Boyle against a high-powered but currently slumping Yankees lineup. Boyle has already fanned 18 batters in 19 innings and hasn’t allowed more than a single earned run in a start yet. It’s hard to know if it’s sustainable, but the early signs point to a pitcher who knows how to command his fastball and create swings and misses.

Fried is definitely the safer choice as he rarely gets lit up; however, if the Yankees’ offense finally figures out their problems and turns it up, he’ll need to be perfect. And Tampa has shown that it can manufacture just enough offense to win even low-scoring games.

Tampa is 31-34 in night games, compared to the Yankees’ 34-31, so not much of a gap there and not really enough to sway our opinion one way or another. The Yankees are the better home team by record, but Tampa has already won 3 games in New York this season. Confidence at Yankee Stadium definitely won’t be a problem for them.

Prediction and Best Pick

This game is likely to come down to which starter blinks first and who can go deep. Based on the current form, it might be Fried. He’s had a stellar year, but Boyle is pitching like a guy trying to steal a rotation spot for good. And right now, the Yankees aren’t hitting enough to scare teams, let alone any SP taking the bump. The Rays don’t need 6 runs to win — they just need to play clean baseball, get Boyle through 6 good innings, and turn the ball over to the bullpen.

• Rays vs Yankees Prediction: Rays 3, Yankees 2
• Best Bet: Tampa Bay Rays moneyline at +161

Tampa Bay’s momentum, Boyle’s dominant but small sample, and the Yankees’ recent slump make the Rays’ moneyline at +161 worth the bet. It might not be pretty, but value is value, and we’ll take that all day.