Pittsburgh Steelers vs New York Jets Prediction, Betting Odds, and Best Picks

The New York Jets host the Pittsburgh Steelers in Week 1, and this game has some serious layers and storylines to it.

Aaron Rodgers returns to face the team that cut him loose after giving him a chance, while Justin Fields makes his first start as the new face of the Jets. Both QBs are looking to prove something with their new teams, but the stakes feel heavier for Fields, who not only has to replace Rodgers in New York but also happens to be facing his hometown team.

This game is easily the game to watch this weekend to see how the drama unfolds on the gridiron. But that also means that there are plenty of betting opportunities as well.

Game Details and Betting Odds

This matchup will be played at MetLife Stadium in East Rutherford tomorrow at 1:00 PM ET. The Steelers come into the game as 3-point road favorites at -105 odds, while the Jets are +3 at -115. On the moneyline, Pittsburgh sits at -148, with New York available at +124 for the upset. Bookmakers are apparently expecting a low-scoring grind as they’ve set the total at 37.5 points, with the over priced at -115 and the under at -105.

It’s one of the most intriguing storylines on the Week 1 slate, given the QB situation of each side. Rodgers now commands Pittsburgh’s offense after the Jets let him walk, and Fields takes over a Jets team desperate for offensive stability. For the Jets, rookie RT Armand Membou gets an immediate trial by fire against T.J. Watt, a matchup that could dictate how comfortable Fields feels all afternoon. On the other side of the hash marks, Jets edge rusher Will McDonald IV is looking to make big headlines by sacking his idol Rodgers in his very first chance.

Bet Analysis

The Jets come into this game with optimism about their young roster. However, this matchup is a brutal start. Protecting Fields is by far the biggest concern. If Membou can’t hold up against Watt, the Jets’ offensive game plan may collapse quickly, leaving them scrambling to pull it together. Last season, New York was one of the worst teams at sustaining drives when they turned the ball over, finishing just 1-6 when throwing an INT. Against a Pittsburgh defense that intercepted 17 passes a year ago — the 3rd-most in the NFL — that’s a glaring red flag they’ll have to face.

Rodgers doesn’t need to be vintage MVP Rodgers to tilt this game in favor of the Steelers. What Pittsburgh needs is simply efficiency, and Rodgers has the defense to lean on. The Steelers were the second-best 3rd down defense in football last season, where they allowed just 35% conversions, and they excelled in situational football. They were also 6-1 when scoring 22+ points and 8-3 when rushing for at least 120 yards. That formula — defense, run game, controlled passing — seems to be a recipe for success on the road in Week 1.

The Jets, meanwhile, have their strengths. Defensively, they were elite on early downs, allowing just 36.5% of plays to gain 5+ yards, which is good for the best mark in the league. That matches up well against a Steelers offense that ranked dead last in that same stat. If the Jets can force Rodgers into long-yardage situations, they’ll have some decent chances to steal possessions.

The real issue is red zone efficiency. The Jets threw the ball 69% of the time inside the 20 last year, which was the highest rate in the league, but they were among the worst teams in expected points per play on first reads. Of course, that was under Rodgers, but it’s a recipe for stalled drives, and it shows up in the betting market with the total set at just 37.5. Even if Fields moves the ball between the 20s, finishing drives against this Steelers defense definitely won’t come easy.

On the Jets’ side of the field, the path to victory comes down to turnovers and explosive plays. Their defense is good enough to hold Pittsburgh in check for a while, but if Fields gets rattled early, it could snowball out of control fast. And while the Jets’ moneyline at +124 carries some appeal for bettors who believe in Fields’ debut spark, the safer bet is still on the Steelers’ side.

Prediction and Best Pick

This game undoubtedly feels like a slugfest. The Steelers’ defense will do whatever it can to frustrate Fields, and Watt could cause game-breaking pressure off the edge. The Jets’ defense will do its part to keep things close, but with the offense still searching for rhythm, Rodgers’ steady hand and Pittsburgh’s balance should be enough to get their first win.

• Steelers vs Jets Prediction: Steelers 20, Jets 16
• Best Bet: Steelers moneyline at -148

While the spread of -3 is playable, the moneyline avoids the push scenario in what projects to be a tight, defensive game all around. With Rodgers supported by a top-tier defense and Fields still finding his footing behind a shaky O-line, Pittsburgh is the safer play to win the game outright.

For those looking at the total, the lean is to the under 37.5 at -105. Both teams have strong defenses, both QBs are under pressure in different ways, and finishing drives will be a challenge on both sides. We don’t see this being a shootout, but rather a slugfest fought in the trenches.